October 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 October 2026
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SECURITY COUNCIL AND WIDER UN STRUCTURE

UN-AU Cooperation

Expected Council Action

In October, the Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations, focusing on the African Union (AU). Special Representative of the Secretary-General to the AU and Head of the UN Office to the AU (UNOAU) Parfait Onanga-Anyanga and AU Commissioner for Political Affairs and Peace and Security Bankole Adeoye are the anticipated briefers.

Onanga-Anyanga is expected to present the Secretary-General’s annual report on strengthening the partnership between the UN and the AU on issues of peace and security in Africa, including the work of the UNOAU during the meeting.

The 20th annual joint consultative meeting of the Security Council and the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) will also be held in October. The annual meeting rotates between New York and Addis Ababa; this year’s meeting will be held in New York on 23 October. The annual consultation is expected to be preceded on 22 October by the 11th informal joint seminar of the Security Council and the AUPSC, which has generally focused on thematic issues.

Key Recent Developments

The annual report, published on 17 August, describes the partnership between the UN and the AU in conflict prevention and peacemaking, peacekeeping and peace support operations, peacebuilding and the rule of law, and countering terrorism and violent extremism. It highlights challenges and opportunities for peace and security in Africa and mentions the security situation in some countries, including in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Sudan, and Somalia. It also refers to the return to constitutional order in Gabon and Guinea, while noting the unconstitutional changes of government in Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau in the reporting period.

Additionally, the Secretary-General’s report provides updates on the cooperation between the UN Secretariat and the AU Commission. The ninth and tenth UN-AU annual conferences, which brought together the senior leadership of both organisations—including Secretary-General António Guterres and AU Commission Chairperson Mahamoud Ali Youssouf—were held in November 2025 and May 2026 in New York and Addis Ababa, respectively. This annual meeting serves as a platform for reviewing progress in the implementation of the various cooperation frameworks signed by the two organisations. At the tenth meeting, the leadership of the two organisations signed a declaration reaffirming the principles underpinning their cooperation frameworks and institutionalising their commitment to the strategic partnership.

During the UN General Assembly High-Level Week in September, Guterres and Youssouf co-chaired a meeting which discussed, among other things, developments in the DRC, Libya, the Sahel, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan. They also exchanged views on external shocks, including disruptions to global supply chains and maritime chokepoints, and their adverse effects for African economies and food security.

As they have done in recent years, the AU Committee of Experts will come to New York before the annual consultations to meet with their Security Council counterparts and negotiate the joint communiqué to be adopted at the end of the annual consultations. Security Council experts have also travelled to Addis Ababa twice so far in preparation for the annual consultations and met with their AUPSC counterparts.

While in New York, AUPSC members are expected to hold their annual consultations with the UN Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) on 22 October. Initiated in 2016, these annual consultations have since become a regular feature of the UN-AU partnership. African issues feature prominently on the PBC’s agenda, while post-conflict African countries account for a significant share of allocations from the UN Peacebuilding Fund.

Key Issues and Options

In October, Council members will have several opportunities to focus on UN-AU cooperation in light of the Secretary-General’s annual report on the topic and the visit of AUPSC members to New York for the annual consultations with Security Council members. A key issue is how to strengthen the partnership with the AUPSC across the peace continuum ranging from conflict prevention, mediation, and conflict resolution to peacekeeping, peacebuilding, and post-conflict reconstruction to provide a coherent and effective response to wars and other crisis situations in Africa.

A related issue for Council members is how it addresses the review processes undertaken by the two organisations. The UN has conducted a review on the future of all forms of UN peace operations, which the Secretary-General submitted to the Security Council and the General Assembly in August. The AU has also conducted a review of the African Peace and Security Architecture, including AU Peace Support Operations (AUPSOs). Council members could explore the complementarity of these review processes, including at the annual consultations with the AUPSC, to advance the UN-AU partnership in addressing Africa’s peace and security challenges.

In relation to the annual consultations between the two Councils, a major issue is how to deepen the partnership with the AU and its sub-regional mechanisms to address the most pressing peace and security situations in Africa. The members of the two Councils are expected to focus on several conflict and crisis situations in their annual consultations. This year, they are expected to discuss country- and region-specific situations, including the funding of the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), eastern DRC, South Sudan, and Sudan. At the 11th informal joint seminar, the two Councils are expected to exchange views on a number of thematic topics, including the review of UN peace operations and AUPSOs and the implementation of resolution 2719; youth, peace and security; counter-terrorism in Africa; children and armed conflict; and possibly natural resource management as a factor that exacerbates armed conflict.

Negotiations on the outcome document of the annual consultations are often contentious. If the two Councils are unable to agree on a draft communiqué, as was the case last year (see Council dynamics below), a possible option would be to issue a short press statement covering the main issues discussed.

Another issue related to the annual meetings is how to encourage a more interactive exchange during the informal seminar preceding the annual consultations between the members of the Security Council and the AUPSC. Two years ago, this seminar was held as a retreat outside of New York City with an agenda aimed at fostering greater interactivity. This year, the Greek presidency also intends to follow a similar format to encourage a more informal and interactive discussion by organising a retreat in Greentree, including a fireside chat.

The future of resolution 2719, adopted on 21 December 2023 on the financing of AUPSOs, is another issue that Council members are expected to grapple with over the coming months. Pursuant to paragraph 17 of the resolution, the Security Council is expected to review its implementation three years after its adoption. In this regard, Council members are likely to receive an update during the October annual meeting on the work by the UN and the AU to lay the groundwork for the operationalisation of the resolution based on the joint roadmap agreed between the two organisations in October 2024.

Council and Wider Dynamics

Council members are generally supportive of the cooperation and partnership between the UN and the AU on peace and security. The role of the three African members (A3) has been vital in this regard, although their influence has varied depending on the composition and priorities of its membership.

Next year, the A3 is likely to further institutionalise its “A3 plus one” arrangement with elected members from the Caribbean, with Trinidad and Tobago joining the Council as an elected member from the region. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Guyana previously worked closely with the A3 as “plus members”, making Trinidad and Tobago the third Caribbean country to participate in the arrangement. During the UN General Assembly High-Level Week, the A3 held its meeting and welcomed Zimbabwe and Trinidad and Tobago as the incoming members of the “A3 plus one”.

The Security Council Ad Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa (AWG) is responsible for organising the annual consultations with AUPSC. This year, the chair of the AWG has yet to be appointed, pending the finalisation of the allocation of chairs of subsidiary bodies. In the interim, Greece, as Security Council president for October, facilitated agreement on the dates for the annual consultations, while Somalia, which chaired the AWG last year, is informally facilitating negotiations on the draft agenda items and programme of work.

Last year, the negotiations over the outcome document of the 19th annual consultations in Addis Ababa were contentious, with the two Councils unable to agree on a range of issues discussed at the meeting. They eventually opted to issue a short joint press statement, which described the country- and region-specific situations as well as thematic topics that were discussed during their annual consultations and the informal seminar.

At the time of writing, Council members had yet to begin negotiations on the draft outcome document of the 20th annual consultations, which New York, as this year’s host, is drafting and is expected to share with Addis Ababa once Council members have finalized the draft agenda items. The proposed agenda item on natural resources, proposed by the AUPSC, appears to have become a point of contention within the Security Council. Russia apparently broke silence on the issue by proposing to reformulate the agenda item as “Root causes of conflict in Africa and the exploitation of natural resources”. The European Council members, however, seem to have opposed the proposed reformulation, arguing that it would alter the scope of the agenda item.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON UN-AU COOPERATION

Secretary-General’s Report
17 August 2026S/2026/682 This was the annual report on the partnership between the UN and the AU.

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