October 2026 Monthly Forecast

AFRICA

Great Lakes Region (DRC)

Expected Council Action 

In October, the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region, Huang Xia, is expected to provide the biannual briefing to the Council on the implementation of the 2013 Peace, Security, and Cooperation Framework (PSC-F) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Great Lakes region.

Key Recent Developments

Fighting between the Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) and the Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) rebel group has continued unabated in eastern DRC, with persistent clashes reported in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces despite the ceasefires agreed under various mediation initiatives. (For more, see the brief on the DRC in our September 2026 Monthly Forecast.) It appears that the FARDC has intensified its aerial operations against the M23, but the rebel group continues to consolidate and expand its territory across these two provinces.

The deteriorating security situation is also increasing regional tensions in the Great Lakes. Burundi, whose forces operate in South Kivu under a bilateral arrangement with the Congolese government, is supportive of Kinshasa, while Rwanda is accused of backing the M23. Burundi and Rwanda have been trading these accusations amid the escalating situation in eastern DRC. Burundi’s President Évariste Ndayishimiye has visited DRC twice in June and August against the backdrop of these security developments.

From 17 to 21 August, representatives from the Congolese government and the M23 met in Switzerland under the Doha Peace Process, a mediation initiative spearheaded by Qatar. The meeting was attended by representatives from Qatar, Switzerland, Togo (as the African Union [AU] mediator), the US, and the AU Commission. According to the communiqué released after the meeting, the parties assessed the progress and challenges encountered in implementing their commitments under the Doha process and agreed to establish a mechanism tasked with reviewing progress and addressing challenges in this regard. They also developed a roadmap with sequenced steps and timelines for negotiations on the remaining protocols under the Doha Framework for a Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed between the two parties in November 2025.

So far, the parties have signed two of the eight protocols outlined in the Doha Framework: the Ceasefire Oversight and Verification Mechanism (COVM) and the Mechanism for the Liberation of Detainees. Progress on the remaining six protocols—which focus on, among other issues, humanitarian access and judicial protection; the restoration of state authority; interim security arrangements; return of internally displaced persons and refugees; economic and society recovery; and justice, truth and reconciliation—is still needed to advance the peace process.

At their meeting in Switzerland, the parties welcomed continued progress on the operationalisation of the Expanded Joint Verification Mechanism Plus (EJVM+), which is part of the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) and is considered a key component of the COVM. This included the establishment of its Secretariat and the conduct of a reconnaissance mission to Minembwe and Masisi, two areas in South Kivu and North Kivu, respectively, that have experienced intense fighting recently. This mission was conducted with support from the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) ahead of the mechanism’s first ceasefire verification mission in the town, which commenced on 24 August.

In resolution 2808 of 19 December 2025, which last renewed MONUSCO’s mandate, the Security Council requested the mission to notify it of ceasefire monitoring and verification activities in South Kivu, given that the province is no longer within the mission’s area of operation. Accordingly, it seems that the Secretariat has sent a 25 August white note to update the Security Council of the above-mentioned development. On 22 September, MONUSCO announced the completion of this first verification mission, which it described as an important step towards operationalising the COVM agreed under the Doha process.

Meanwhile, the seventh meeting of the Joint Security Coordination Mechanism (JSCM), one of the structures set up under the Washington Accords—another mediation initiative held under US auspices, was held in Geneva on 16 and 17 September. The meeting reportedly addressed several outstanding commitments under the agreement, including:

At the time of writing, no formal communiqué had been issued. According to the communiqué of their last meeting in August, however, the DRC and Rwanda are expected to hold a trilateral planning conference with the US in October.

Despite the JSCM meeting, tensions between the DRC and Rwanda persist, with both sides alleging violations of commitments made under the Washington Accords. On 24 August, the DRC sent a letter to the president of the Council detailing “serious violations committed during the months of June and July 2026, including summary executions, massacres and bombings that resulted in the deaths of more than 300 people, as well as numerous cases of sexual violence, torture, kidnapping, forced recruitment, arson of homes and looting”. On 8 September, Rwanda sent a letter to the president of the Council in response, rejecting the allegations contained in the DRC letter and disputing the characterisation of the situation in the eastern DRC.

Women, Peace and Security

On 21 September, the Office of the Special Envoy, in collaboration with the AU and the European Union (EU), organised a high-level event on advancing the women, peace and security agenda in peace efforts for the Great Lakes region. The meeting brought together member states, partners, and other relevant stakeholders to discuss ways to strengthen women’s participation and inclusion in conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and sustainable development.

Key Issues and Options

A key issue for Council members in October remains the security situation in eastern DRC, which continues to be a source of tension among countries of the Great Lakes region. The full and effective implementation of the ceasefire is a related issue, with Council members likely to be interested in receiving updates on steps taken to fully operationalise the EJVM+. One possible option would be for Greece, as the October Security Council president, to invite the ICGLR Executive Secretary Mubita Luwabelwa to brief.

The need to ensure greater coordination among the various mediation initiatives in the Great Lakes region has been an ongoing issue for Council members. Since the start of the new year, the African-led mediation effort has once again become more active and apparently developed a political roadmap outlining core objectives and key priorities in support of finding a negotiated solution to the crisis in eastern DRC. During the meeting in October, Xia may brief Council members about his series of engagements with regional leaders, mediators, and facilitators as part of his good offices mandate to support ongoing mediation processes, including his attendance at the semi-annual assessment meeting of the AU mediator and facilitators on the situation in eastern DRC that took place in Lome, Togo in June. A possible option for Council members will be to hold an informal interactive dialogue (IID) with those involved in mediation efforts to gain a better understanding of the various mediation processes and encourage greater coordination and harmonisation among these efforts.

The illegal exploitation of natural resources in the DRC and the Great Lakes region remains a major issue, drawing renewed attention amid growing interest in the region’s vast reserves of critical minerals. Xia may speak about the issue in the context of his office’s ongoing efforts in promoting sustainable and transparent natural resource management. Council members could continue to stress the need for responsible mineral sourcing in their statements. A possible option for interested Council members such as DRC is to pursue a Council product in due course, building on previous resolutions and presidential statements as well as Council discussions on the nexus between natural resources and security.

Another ongoing concern is the dire humanitarian situation, which has been exacerbated by the Ebola outbreak in the DRC and the Great Lakes region. Uganda has successfully contained the outbreak, recording 42 consecutive days without a new confirmed case, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. In contrast, the DRC continues to struggle to contain the spread of the virus, which has affected 61 health zones across six provinces, including Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu, with 6,757 confirmed cases and 3,267 deaths.

Council and Wider Dynamics

Council members have welcomed the progress in the ongoing mediation efforts to address the situation in eastern DRC, which has been the source of tension in the Great Lakes region. However, they remain concerned that the various agreements signed last year have not translated into reduced hostilities on the ground or eased tensions in the region. Therefore, they may reiterate their call on the parties to uphold their commitments under these agreements.

Council members appear to be supportive of MONUSCO’s role in ceasefire monitoring. However, China and Russia maintained that any potential deployment in South Kivu would require prior authorisation by the Security Council. Following the 29 September briefing on the situation in the DRC, however, Council members have agreed on press elements in which they took note of the verification missions conducted by EJVM+ and expressed appreciation for the assistance provided by MONUSCO in accordance with its mandate.

DRC, an elected Security Council member for the 2026-2027 term, has highlighted the illegal exploitation of natural resources as a major priority during its term. During its July Security Council presidency, it convened an Arria-formula meeting and a high-level open debate on the topic on 13 and 22 July, respectively. DRC also organised a side event on natural resources, artificial intelligence, and the geopolitics of peace and security on 23 September during the UN General Assembly High-Level Week.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON THE GREAT LAKES

Security Council Resolution
21 February 2025S/RES/2773 This resolution, acting under Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, strongly condemns the ongoing offensive and advances of the M23 in the North Kivu and South Kivu provinces of the DRC–calling on the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) to cease support to M23 and immediately withdraw from DRC territory without preconditions. The resolution also reiterates an urgent call for all parties to conclude an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.
Secretary-General’s Report
31 March 2026S/2026/256 This report was on the implementation of the PSC-F.
Security Council Meeting Record
30 September 2026

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