October 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 October 2026
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Emerging Technologies and Maritime Security

Expected Council Action

In October, Greece will convene a high-level briefing on emerging technologies, with an emphasis on maritime security, under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item as a signature event of its Council presidency.

Background and Key Recent Developments

The Council has traditionally addressed maritime security in the context of specific country and regional situations, including piracy off Somalia and illicit arms transfers to Libya. However, in recent years, several elected members have also sought to broaden the Council’s consideration of maritime threats to the thematic level and discuss their wider implications for international peace and security. During India’s August 2021 presidency, the Council held its first thematic meeting on maritime security and adopted a presidential statement reaffirming that international law, as reflected in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), sets out the legal framework applicable to activities in the oceans. The statement also encouraged member states to continue strengthening their maritime security capacities, including to address piracy and armed robbery at sea, terrorist activities, and transnational organised crime.

On 11 August 2025, the Council held a high-level open debate on “Maritime Security: Prevention, Innovation, and International Cooperation to Address Emerging Challenges” as a signature event of Panama’s presidency. Bahrain subsequently convened a high-level open debate on “The Safety and Protection of Waterways in the Maritime Domain” on 27 April as a signature event of its presidency, followed by an Arria-formula meeting on “Safe Seas, Shared Security: Protecting Freedom of Navigation in an Evolving Security Environment” on 17 September.

Separately, the Council has increasingly considered the implications of new and emerging technologies for international peace and security, holding its first formal briefing on artificial intelligence (AI) in July 2023 at the UK’s initiative. Since then, it has held six additional meetings on AI. At Switzerland’s initiative, the Council also convened an Arria-formula meeting on 17 May 2024 and a briefing on 21 October 2024 examining the impact of scientific and technological developments on international peace and security. At the latter meeting, the Council adopted a presidential statement committing to take scientific advances into account more systematically, where appropriate and within its mandate.

Greece has been active in advancing the Council’s engagement in both areas. On 4 April 2025, it co-organised an Arria-formula meeting with France and the Republic of Korea on the responsible use of AI for international peace and security. During its May 2025 presidency, Greece also convened a high-level open debate on maritime security, at which Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis advocated using new technologies, including AI, to improve maritime surveillance and facilitate communication and information-sharing. Briefing the Council, Secretary-General António Guterres identified cyberattacks against ports and shipping companies as an emerging threat, while the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) Fellow Christian Bueger raised concerns about autonomous weapons systems and the protection of critical maritime infrastructure. Greece, together with India and the Philippines, subsequently convened a 21 November 2025 Arria-formula meeting on “Maritime Safety and Security: Protection of Seafarers”.

In a related initiative outside the Council, Greece and India co-hosted a high-level side event on 25 September on AI and international peace and security, with an emphasis on maritime security. Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis discussed AI’s potential to improve maritime monitoring and early warning, as well as cyber vulnerabilities affecting shipping and critical infrastructure, including ports and undersea cables. Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar similarly highlighted AI’s potential to strengthen maritime domain awareness and resilience, while arguing that Security Council engagement should focus on applications and consequences with a demonstrable bearing on international peace and security.

Recent conflicts have demonstrated the growing role of emerging technologies in maritime insecurity. The war in Ukraine has seen maritime drones and other advanced weapons deployed in the Black Sea, while Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have involved unmanned systems. In September, Anthropic identified a Southeast Asian government entity involved in maritime shipping and tracking among the targets of an AI-assisted cyber-espionage campaign. The report did not establish whether the entity was successfully compromised or maritime operations were disrupted.

International efforts to address these technologies have also advanced. In May, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted the first global code for autonomous ships, which took effect on 1 July. The code establishes a framework for the safe operation of autonomous and remotely controlled cargo ships, covering areas including navigation, connectivity, remote operations, and cybersecurity. On 28 May, the IMO also issued revised guidelines on maritime cyber risk management, providing recommendations to safeguard shipping against current and emerging cyber threats and vulnerabilities.

Key Issues and Options

A key issue for the Council is how it can assess the implications of rapidly evolving technologies for maritime security. AI can strengthen maritime domain awareness, improving early warning and the detection of suspicious activity. At the same time, it can enable more sophisticated reconnaissance, vulnerability mapping, and cyber operations against ports, vessels, communications networks, and undersea cables. The increasing autonomy of maritime systems may also compress decision-making time and heighten risks of misperception, miscalculation, and unintended escalation. These risks intersect with existing sources of maritime insecurity, including attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and disruption to critical maritime infrastructure, whose effects can extend to global trade, food and energy security, and communications.

Members could request relevant analysis in the Secretary-General’s reports on situations involving maritime insecurity. They could also establish an Informal Expert Group on Technology, Peace and Security to convene informal, expert-level discussions on the implications of emerging technologies for issues on the Council’s agenda, including maritime security. (For more information on this proposal, see our 15 September policy paper, Artificial Intelligence, Geopolitics, and the UN Security Council.)

Council Dynamics

Council members recognise the need for coherent and effective multilateral approaches to maritime security, given the transnational nature of these challenges. All Council members are also parties to UNCLOS, except Colombia and the US, both of which nonetheless consider many of its provisions as customary international law. (For more information, see the brief on Maritime Security in our April 2026 Monthly Forecast.)

Differences remain, however, over the scope of the Council’s engagement in maritime issues. Russia has argued that matters such as transnational organised crime, illicit arms and drug trafficking, trafficking in persons, and the illegal exploitation of marine resources fall outside the Council’s remit unless they have clear implications for international peace and security and are better addressed in specialised forums. China has similarly resisted an expansive Council role, maintaining, for example, that specific maritime disputes, including those in the South China Sea, should not be addressed by the Council.

Members also differ over the Council’s role in addressing new and emerging technologies. At the 23 September briefing on AI, Greece stressed the need to address the security implications of AI as they pertain to the Council’s mandate, while avoiding duplication of work elsewhere. Latvia and Liberia expressed support for an informal expert group on AI and emerging technologies. Russia, however, questioned whether AI as a broad thematic issue falls within the Council’s mandate, arguing that it should be addressed in more inclusive and specialised forums.

Negotiations on Council products have exposed disagreements over the scope of Council engagement in both areas. For example, during negotiations on the August 2021 presidential statement on maritime security, China apparently opposed a dedicated Secretary-General’s report on maritime security. Similarly, during negotiations on the Council’s October 2024 presidential statement, Russia appears to have opposed language encouraging the Secretary-General to reflect scientific advances in reporting on situations on the Council’s agenda and to take such developments into account in efforts to enhance peace operations, early warning, conflict prevention, and resolution.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON TECHNOLOGY AND MARITIME SECURITY

Security Council Presidential Statements
21 October 2024S/PRST/2024/6 This was a Swiss-authored presidential statement on science, technology and innovation.
9 August 2021S/PRST/2021/15 This presidential statement reaffirmed that international law, as reflected in UNCLOS, sets out the legal framework applicable to activities in the oceans and encouraged member states to continue building and strengthening their capacities to enhance maritime security, including against piracy and armed robbery at sea, terrorist activities, and transnational organized crime.
Security Council Meeting Records
27 April 2026S/PV.10145 This was the open debate on maritime security organised by Bahrain.
20 May 2025S/PV.9919 This was a meeting titled “Strengthening Maritime Security through International Cooperation for Global Stability”, organised by Greece as one of its signature events.

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