August 2026 Monthly Forecast

AFRICA

South Sudan

Expected Council Action

In August, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the situation in South Sudan. Special Representative and Head of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) Anita Kiki Gbeho is the anticipated briefer.

The mandate of UNMISS expires on 30 April 2027.

Key Recent Developments

The security situation across South Sudan continues to deteriorate, marked by sustained hostilities between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO), as well as clashes involving other opposition and affiliated armed groups. Intercommunal violence and resource-driven violence continue alongside politically motivated conflict. These developments have undermined the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), with persistent ceasefire violations, stalled security sector reform, and deepening political deadlock eroding the peace agreement. (For background and more information, see the brief on South Sudan in our May 2026 Monthly Forecast.)

South Sudan’s political landscape remains highly volatile. The Secretary-General’s 13 April report highlighted that political fragmentation has contributed directly to military escalation, increasingly hostile rhetoric, and greater assertiveness among armed actors. The report underscored the persistent lack of political will to advance inclusive dialogue and a continued focus on holding elections over the full implementation of key R-ARCSS benchmarks, which has seriously undermined the functioning of transitional institutions.

On 22 June, South Sudan’s National Elections Commission announced that the country’s first post-independence general elections, which have been repeatedly postponed, will be held on 22 December. The announcement comes amid continued concerns that several key benchmarks under the revitalised agreement, including voter registration, civic education, election security arrangements, and a national census, remain outstanding.

In early July, the African Union (AU) High-Level Ad Hoc Committee for South Sudan (C5)—comprising Algeria, Chad, Nigeria, Rwanda, and South Africa—visited Juba, along with representatives of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Led by South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Ronald Lamola, the delegation assessed implementation of the revitalised agreement, with a particular focus on preparations for the country’s forthcoming elections. During the visit, the delegation met with several senior government officials, including President Kiir, members of the National Elections Commission, Political Parties Council, and representatives of civil society.

On 2 July, the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) convened a briefing on the status of implementation of the revitalised agreement. Participants reviewed progress and challenges in implementing the peace agreement, as well as the support required to deliver on the remaining provisions as the transitional period approaches its conclusion. During the meeting, RJMEC Interim Chairperson Major General (retired) George Aggrey Owinow urged the parties to demonstrate renewed political will to fully implement the agreement and create the conditions necessary for peaceful, free, fair, and credible elections.

On 3 July, Gbeho chaired her first meeting of the Joint Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JVMM) in Juba, which brings together UNMISS and senior commanders of the SSPDF. The meeting focused on enhancing coordination between UNMISS and the SSPDF amid the country’s evolving security dynamics. Participants also discussed continued denials of access for UN peacekeepers at illegal checkpoints, particularly in areas affected by intercommunal violence, noting that such restrictions hamper the mission’s ability to protect civilians and respond rapidly to emergencies.

The humanitarian situation in South Sudan continues to deteriorate. According to a 17 July humanitarian update by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), nearly 9 million people are expected to require food assistance between June and September, with some communities in parts of Jonglei and Upper Nile States projected to face catastrophe-level food insecurity. Humanitarian access also continued to worsen, with the update reporting 391 access incidents between January and June, a 63 percent increase compared with the same period in 2025. Meanwhile, cholera cases are rising as the outbreak continues to spread across the country, particularly in Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei States, with more than 109,000 cases and 1,700 deaths reported as at 14 July.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 30 June, UNMISS’ Human Rights Division released its quarterly brief on violence affecting civilians, covering the period from January to March. The report documented 206 incidents of conflict-related violence affecting 1,388 civilians, including 767 killed, 457 injured, 93 abducted, and 71 subjected to conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV). Compared with the previous quarter (October-December 2025), the number of conflict-related incidents decreased by 4 percent (from 215 to 206); however, the number of civilians killed increased by 89 percent, and CRSV cases rose by 31 percent.

On 10 June, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, submitted a report to the Human Rights Council on technical assistance and capacity building in South Sudan in 2025. The report noted that, despite limited financial resources, sustained UN support helped strengthen national capacity, reinforce accountability mechanisms, and expand protection for victims and affected communities. It concluded that entrenched impunity and structural weaknesses in the justice sector continue to impede progress, urging the South Sudanese government to implement targeted reforms and calling on the UN and the international community to sustain and expand long-term technical assistance, particularly in justice sector reform and the prevention of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV).

Women, Peace and Security

On 25 March, the Informal Experts Group (IEG) on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) met on the situation in South Sudan, where Gbeho briefed. According to the summary of the meeting, issued on 5 May by Colombia and Denmark as the IEG co-chairs, together with the UK as the penholder on WPS, Council members discussed such issues as UNMISS’ engagement with women’s civil society organisations, the mission’s support to survivors of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), and UNMISS’ capacity to deliver on its WPS mandate.

The summary stated that the reduction in the mission’s footprint pursuant to the UN contingency plan implemented in response to the UN-wide financial crisis, and the closure of some of its field offices, have led to a reduction in the number of gender advisers and created constraints in effectively delivering on key aspects of its mandate, including in the areas of protection, human rights, and stabilisation. Consequently, UNMISS has relied more on partner non-governmental organisations (NGOs), including women’s groups and human rights defenders, to maintain situational awareness and ongoing engagements.

The high incidence of CRSV and increasing reports of child marriages were another focus of the meeting. The summary mentioned that women and girls, who represent most of the survivors of CRSV, are subjected to sexual violence during clashes, when fleeing conflict, and while engaging in essential livelihood activities such as tending fields and travelling to markets. Among other things, the summary highlighted increasing concerns that, in areas where UNMISS has reduced its presence, survivors of SGBV “feel less inclined to report violations” due to fear of reprisals.

Key Issues and Options

An overarching issue for the Council remains how to avert South Sudan’s continued descent into a broader political and security crisis while addressing the structural drivers of recurring violence and instability. Ensuring accountability for human rights abuses and violations of international humanitarian law, and breaking the cycle of impunity, also remain key concerns.

A related issue is how the Council and the broader international community can help prevent the transitional process from collapsing amid increasing political fragmentation and deteriorating security conditions. The peace process continues to be undermined by deep mistrust among political leaders, unilateral actions by the government (including the consolidation of power over state institutions and the weakening of opposition and allied groups), and recurring clashes between the parties to the agreement. In addition, persistent financial constraints and delays in key legal and political decisions continue to stall critical transitional processes.

Despite repeated extensions of the transitional period, the parties have failed to demonstrate the political will necessary to implement the critical benchmarks set out in the R-ARCSS for the conduct of national elections. Although the transitional government has decided to proceed with general elections in December, in line with the timeline established by the most recent extension of the transitional period on 13 September 2024, persistent financial constraints, political fragmentation, ongoing fighting in several parts of the country, and delays in implementing key political, legal, and security provisions continue to raise questions about whether the necessary conditions are in place to hold inclusive, peaceful, and credible elections.

Another issue concerns obstacles to UNMISS’ ability to fulfil its mandate, including restrictions on its freedom of movement and violations of the Status of Forces Agreement.

During the Council’s briefing in August, members could consider inviting a civil society representative to highlight the challenges on the ground, including those arising from delays in implementing the revitalised agreement and deteriorating security and humanitarian situations. Council members could also consider inviting the Chair of the C5 to brief on the committee’s efforts to support implementation of the peace agreement, including its recent visit to Juba.

One option for the Council would be to adopt a presidential statement expressing concern about the deteriorating political, security, and humanitarian situation; urging the parties to accelerate implementation of the R-ARCSS; calling for the creation of conditions conducive to inclusive, peaceful, and credible elections; and demanding full cooperation with UNMISS, including respect for its freedom of movement.

Council members could also consider holding an informal interactive dialogue (IID) with South Sudanese stakeholders, the leadership of UNMISS, and interested regional and subregional member states and organisations to discuss strategies for addressing the deteriorating situation in the country. (The IID is a closed format that, unlike closed consultations, allows for the participation of non-UN officials and briefers.)

Ahead of the planned elections in December, Council members could also explore the possibility of undertaking a visiting mission to South Sudan to assess conditions on the ground and engage directly with the parties to the R-ARCSS. (The Council’s last visiting mission to South Sudan took place in 2019.)

Council Dynamics

Council members share similar concerns regarding the significant challenges facing the revitalised agreement, the deteriorating security situation resulting from fighting among armed factions, ongoing sub-national and intercommunal violence, and the deepening economic and humanitarian crises.

However, Council members hold differing views on the overall assessment of the situation. The US, which is the penholder on South Sudan, has taken a particularly critical stance, arguing that the actions of South Sudan’s leadership have systematically undermined peace prospects and repeatedly brought the country to the brink of war. In a 12 May press release, the US Department of State announced visa restrictions on members of South Sudan’s transitional government, citing their role in undermining the peace process by impeding implementation of the ceasefire agreement and engaging in corruption that has fuelled the conflict. The press release also referred to documented allegations that corrupt officials and entities had siphoned funds from South Sudan’s treasury and diverted foreign assistance intended to support the South Sudanese people.

By contrast, members such as China and Russia have emphasised the need for the international community to exercise patience, prioritise support for regional mediation efforts, and avoid exerting excessive pressure, while continuing to back the government’s efforts to strengthen state institutions. The African members have generally shown understanding towards the concerns of the South Sudanese authorities, while also acknowledging persistent security violations, the continued detention of Riek Machar and other SPLA-IO leaders, and unilateral political reshuffling, which they argue risk undermining the progress of the transitional government and prospects for peaceful and credible elections. This divergence has been reflected in Council negotiations on South Sudan products, where one recurring issue has been the extent to which the Council should exert political pressure on the country’s leadership. China, Russia, and the African members have generally favoured maintaining a balanced tone vis-à-vis the government and a more measured approach that avoids placing undue pressure on the host-country authorities. (For more information, see our 30 April What’s in Blue story.)     

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UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN

Security Council Resolutions
30 April 2026S/RES/2820 This resolution renewed UNMISS’ mandate for another year, until 30 April 2027. The text received 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (China and Russia).
Security Council Meeting Records
17 April 2026S/PV.10139 This was the Security Council’s regular 90-day meeting on the situation in South Sudan.
Secretary-General’s Reports
13 April 2026S/2026/316 This was the Secretary-General’s 90-day report covering developments since 16 January 2026.

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