June 2026 Monthly Forecast

MIDDLE EAST

Yemen

Expected Council Action

In June, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and an official from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are expected to brief on political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country. 

Key Recent Developments

The escalation of tensions in the Gulf region, which started on 28 February following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, has further complicated the complex situation in Yemen. On 28 March, the Houthis resumed their missile and drone attacks on Israel, which they had paused following the Gaza ceasefire agreement in October 2025. The Houthis—a Yemeni rebel group that has de facto control of the northwest of the country, including the capital Sana’a—are considered to be part of a coalition of regional armed groups dubbed the “axis of resistance”, which are supported by Iran. After launching several attacks against Israel, the group ceased further strikes following the 7 April announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and the US. Houthi leadership, however, have recently warned that the group is ready to resume its attacks in support of Iran if the US resumes hostilities against the country.

The escalation in the region has also raised renewed concerns regarding the possibility of the Houthis restarting their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, which could create another commercial shipping chokehold akin to Iran’s strategy in the Strait of Hormuz. In April, the group had reportedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden—if any Gulf countries joined the US and Israeli strikes against Iran.

In a 14 May statement before a US Senate Committee, US Commander of Central Command (CENTCOM) Admiral Brad Cooper said that Iran is no longer capable of reliably arming or supplying its proxies, including the Houthis. He also said that the group nonetheless retains capabilities to threaten Red Sea security.

Following months of negotiations, which took place in Jordan, Switzerland, and Oman under UN auspices, on 14 May, Grundberg announced that the conflict parties in Yemen agreed to release over 1,600 conflict-related detainees. The negotiations were facilitated by the Supervisory Committee on the implementation of the detainee release agreement, which is co-chaired by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and was established as part of the framework of the 2018 Stockholm Agreement. Grundberg said that the negotiated outcome was a “significant achievement”. He said that it represented the largest such release of detainees since the outbreak of the conflict in Yemen, showed that dialogue can achieve results, and brought hope and relief to thousands of families of the detainees. A 15 May statement attributable to the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General welcomed the deal, called for its swift implementation, and called on the government of Yemen and the Houthis to build on the positive development and pursue further engagement towards an inclusive political process for peace in Yemen.

In his 14 April briefing to the Council, Grundberg highlighted that Yemen’s recently established government cabinet is prioritising steps to stabilise the strained economy. However, he cautioned that Yemen is particularly vulnerable to the economic repercussions of the regional escalation as it contends with import disruptions, higher fuel and food prices, and a growing risk of reduced support from Gulf countries—on which it depends—due to the impact the war is having on their own economies.

Yemen’s humanitarian situation is especially dire, as the number of people in need of aid continues to rise. Briefing the Council in the 14 April meeting, OCHA’s Crisis Response Division Director Edem Wosornu said that the situation worsens daily with over half of the population in need of humanitarian aid, more than 18 million facing severe hunger, and more than 19 million without access to healthcare as the health system collapses. A 21 May Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) snapshot report highlighted how one in two people in government-controlled areas are facing high levels of acute food insecurity and projected that the situation is likely to deteriorate during the June-September lean season. Wosornu urged funding of the humanitarian needs and response plan for Yemen, which is seeking $2.16 billion for 2026 and is currently only 14 percent covered.

Wosornu added that the urgency of the situation is compounded further by the fact that the UN’s access in Yemen is severely restricted due to the Houthis’ actions, which have included the seizure of UN assets and the continued arbitrary detention of 73 UN staffers. On 18 May, a Houthi court reportedly sentenced 19 people to death who had been detained on accusations of collaborating with the Saudi Arabia-led military coalition that had intervened against the Houthis at the height of the Yemeni civil war.

Key Issues and Options

A key issue for the Council is how to help mitigate the risk of renewed escalation in Yemen, including the possibility that the country could be drawn into the broader regional confrontation with Iran. While frontlines remain relatively static, rising regional tensions and the Houthis’ willingness to militarily support Iran increase the risk of spillover, while instability in southern Yemen adds further volatility.

The 14 May detainee release agreement represents a rare and meaningful confidence-building measure and an opportunity the Council could seek to build upon. In this context, Council members could consider convening an informal interactive dialogue (IID) with the Special Envoy, regional stakeholders, and countries supporting the Yemen peace process to assess both how the momentum generated by the agreement can be translated into broader political progress and how to mitigate the risk of Yemen being drawn into the wider regional confrontation. The IID could provide a forum for members to encourage the parties to fulfil their commitments under the detainee agreement swiftly and in good faith, discuss ways to support Grundberg’s efforts to resume a credible and inclusive political process, and explore how regional actors can help insulate Yemen from further escalation while aligning their efforts behind a renewed political framework that reflects current realities on the ground.

A further key issue is the continued deterioration of the humanitarian situation, compounded by severe access constraints. The detention of UN and other personnel by the Houthis, as well as increasing restrictions on humanitarian operations, have significantly curtailed the delivery of assistance.

In this regard, the Council could consider adopting a resolution or presidential statement demanding the immediate and unconditional release of detained personnel and calling for the cessation of interference in humanitarian operations. Members could also consider holding a dedicated meeting focused on the protection of humanitarian personnel in Yemen or inviting a senior OCHA official to brief specifically on access constraints and operational impacts. 

Council and Wider Dynamics

Despite being critical of the Houthis, most Council members continue to support an inclusive intra-Yemeni political process under UN auspices and emphasise the need to advance mediation efforts. Several Council members have expressed support for the newly formed government, which has faced challenges in legitimising its control over the southern part of the country.

Regional dynamics remain complex. Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which escalated during the fighting in southern Yemen between December 2025 and January, highlight underlying differences in their approaches. At the same time, the escalation involving Iran, Israel, and the US has added a new layer of complexity, particularly in light of heightened tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. While Saudi Arabia has been a principal backer of the newly formed government, Iran continues to support the Houthis, underscoring the risk that Yemen could again become a more active arena for regional competition. These dynamics raise concerns in light of Yemen potentially being drawn further into the broader regional conflict, undermining recent de-escalation efforts.

The Council’s five permanent members remain divided on how to approach the Houthis. France, the UK, and the US have argued that the Council needs to increase pressure on the group—whom they believe are obstructing a political process and fostering instability in Yemen—including by strengthening the Yemen sanctions regime. The US has adopted a particularly hawkish position on the Houthis, unilaterally sanctioning the group and accusing Iran of supporting it. Conversely, China and Russia have argued that expanding the Yemen sanctions regime would escalate tensions and undermine prospects for a negotiated settlement.

Differences also persist regarding the Council’s engagement on maritime security in the Red Sea. China and Russia have expressed reservations about maintaining the issue prominently on the Council’s agenda, particularly where it intersects with military action undertaken by some member states, which they argue risks exacerbating tensions and undermining the political track. Other members, including the UK and the US, continue to emphasise the importance of addressing threats to freedom of navigation.

The UK is the penholder on Yemen. Greece and the US are the co-penholders on the Red Sea crisis. 

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UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN

Security Council Resolutions
14 January 2026S/RES/2812 This resolution extends the Secretary-General’s monthly reporting requirement on Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea until 15 July 2026.
Security Council Press Statements
23 December 2025SC/16265 This press statement called for de-escalation and underlined strong support towards a political settlement in Yemen and for the Presidential Leadership Council, while also reiterating condemnation of detentions by the Houthis and the demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all those detained.
Security Council Meeting Records
14 April 2026S/PV.10135 This was a meeting on political and humanitarian developments in Yemen.

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