June 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 June 2026
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AFRICA

Somalia

Expected Council Action

In June, the Security Council is expected to hold a private meeting on the African Union (AU) Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). Deputy Special Representative for Somalia and Officer in Charge of the UN Transition Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) Raisedon Zenenga and Special Representative of the AU Commission Chairperson (SRCC) for Somalia and Head of AUSSOM El Hadji Ibrahima Diene are the anticipated briefers.

Resolution 2809 of 23 December 2025, which extended the authorisation for AUSSOM until 31 December, requested the Secretary-General to report by 31 May to the Council on, among other things, recommendations for appropriate adaptations to the support provided by the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) to AUSSOM and an update on the status of voluntary resource mobilisation towards AUSSOM’s budget. This report (S/2026/446) was circulated to Council members on 29 May.

Key Recent Developments

On 4 March, Somalia’s bicameral Federal Parliament approved amendments to chapters five to 15 of the provisional constitution, covering federal relations and the branches of the federal government, as well as public finance, security, and transitional provisions. The amendments also extended the terms of the Federal Parliament and the Federal Government President from four to five years. Media reports quoted the Speaker of the House of the People, Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nur, as stating that the extension would apply to incumbent office holders, thereby extending the mandates of the Federal Parliament and the president by one year beyond their previously scheduled expiry dates of 14 April and 15 May, respectively, and postponing the next elections accordingly. On 8 March, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signed these amendments into law, completing the constitutional review process and finalising the constitution.

The amendments drew strong reactions from opposition leaders. The Somali Future Council—an opposition coalition comprising the leaders of Puntland and Jubaland, and other opposition figures—as well as former Presidents Sheikh Sharif Ahmed and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo criticised the amendments, citing a lack of political consensus and warning that they risk further deepening political polarisation in Somalia’s already fragile political environment.

Tensions also escalated between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the leadership of South-West state, one of the federal member states. Following the adoption of the constitutional amendments, South-West authorities suspended relations with Mogadishu, becoming the third federal member state to do so after Puntland and Jubaland. The move followed the regional parliament’s re-election of President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed (Laftagareen) under the state’s constitutional framework, a process that the federal government refused to recognise. The dispute subsequently triggered armed clashes between federal and state forces, culminating in federal forces taking control of Baidoa, the administrative capital of South-West state. Laftagareen subsequently resigned, after which the FGS appointed Ahmed Mohamed Hussein, the state’s former finance minister, as interim president.

These developments have plunged Somalia into a renewed political impasse, marked by disputes over constitutional legitimacy, institutional mandates, and the country’s electoral trajectory. Mohamud has maintained that the latest constitutional amendments extend his mandate beyond 15 May, a position rejected by opposition leaders. Against this backdrop, high-level talks between the FGS and the Somali Future Council, facilitated by the US and the UK, were held in Mogadishu from 13 to 15 May but reportedly ended in a stalemate amid continued disagreements over the electoral model and the president’s mandate. Media reports indicate, however, that international partners have continued to engage the parties to facilitate dialogue and break the political deadlock.

On 26 December 2025, Israel formally recognised Somaliland, becoming the first UN member state to do so since Somaliland declared independence from Somalia in 1991. The move was condemned by Mogadishu and several regional actors, which reiterated their support for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. On 18 May, Somaliland’s first ambassador to Israel, Mohamed Hagi, presented his credentials to Israeli President Isaac Herzog, as Somaliland moved forward with plans to establish an embassy in Jerusalem.

Resolution 2809 also encouraged the AU to transmit to the Council, by 30 April, updated plans for AUSSOM’s configuration and the size of its deployed force and requested the UN, jointly with the AU and FGS, to undertake regular, joint technical assessments of progress against the benchmarks outlined in the 26 November 2024 AU-UN joint report. This report was considered by the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) on 28 April. The Secretary-General transmitted the aforementioned report to the Council in a 22 May letter. Although the report is not public, it apparently indicated that AUSSOM continued to play a critical enabling role in sustaining joint operations and supporting Somali security institutions. While the mission currently maintains deployments across 49 locations—compared with the 23 locations envisaged under its Concept of Operations—the report noted that the existing footprint remains necessary to prevent security vacuums as Somali security forces continue to develop operational capacity. It seems that among its recommendations, the report called for accelerated force generation, capacity-building, and integrated operational planning between AUSSOM and Somali forces; the development of a benchmark-based framework for the phased transfer of security responsibilities to Somali authorities; and the establishment of a joint AU-FGS-UN monitoring mechanism to assess progress against agreed benchmarks and operational conditions.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 6 May, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk and Somali Minister of Family and Human Rights Development Khadija Mohamed Al-Makhzoumi signed Somalia’s first host country agreement, which will establish a comprehensive human rights mandate for the country’s human rights office, including monitoring, reporting, technical assistance, and capacity-building activities.

At the 61st session of the HRC, Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism Ben Saul submitted a report to the Council on his May 2025 visit to Somalia. In the report, Saul assessed the consistency of the country’s counter-terrorism laws, policies, and practices with international human rights law. The report highlighted ongoing concerns about the counter-terrorism strategy (which was not made available to the Special Rapporteur), reportedly observing that the suppression of terrorism falls short in adequately addressing human rights, oversight, and accountability. It further noted that the effectiveness of Somalia’s counter-terrorism response is impeded by political and constitutional instability, clan divisions, and fragmentation between central and federal member state authorities.

Key Issues and Options

One of the key considerations for the Council in June is the implementation of AUSSOM’s mandate and the gradual transfer of security responsibilities to Somali security forces. In resolution 2809, the Council expressed its intention to adapt the support provided to AUSSOM to prioritise sustaining the mission’s capacity to help consolidate the peace and security gains made so far in Somalia, before 30 June.

In this context, Council members are likely to be guided by the findings and recommendations contained in the Secretary-General’s report on the future configuration of UNSOS support to AUSSOM and the status of voluntary resource mobilisation efforts, as well as the recent AU-UN-FGS assessment of force configuration and progress against agreed benchmarks.

An important issue for Council members remains how to ensure that the security transition in Somalia does not outpace the capacity of Somali security forces to assume responsibilities from AUSSOM without jeopardising hard-won gains against Al-Shabaab. The joint assessment apparently cautioned that Al-Shabaab continues to retain the capacity to conduct asymmetric attacks, including through improvised explosive devices, ambushes, and economic coercion, while warning that territorial gains remain vulnerable to reversal in the absence of stabilisation efforts, governance presence, and sustained logistical support. Another important issue for Council members is the impact of persistent funding shortfalls and reductions in logistical support on critical operational enablers, including aviation, engineering, and mobility capabilities, and the implications this may have for AUSSOM’s operational effectiveness and the broader security transition process.

One option for the Council would be to encourage additional international support for AUSSOM, including through efforts to mobilise voluntary contributions to address the mission’s funding shortfalls, such as the convening of a pledging conference. Another option would be to hold an Informal Interactive Dialogue (IID) with representatives of the AU, the FGS, troop-contributing countries, and other relevant stakeholders to discuss the mission’s operational challenges, progress against agreed benchmarks, and ways to sustain recent security gains.

Another important issue is how to continue supporting the Somali government in promoting political dialogue, institution-building, and the implementation of national priorities. Recent political disputes over constitutional and electoral arrangements have raised concerns about political stability, the legitimacy of state institutions, and the prospects for a consensual political process. These concerns are particularly relevant as UNTMIS continues its transition ahead of its planned departure on 31 October.

In this regard, Council members may wish to consider how the UN can sustain support for Somalia’s political and state-building priorities during and beyond the mission’s transition. While discussions on post-UNTMIS arrangements apparently remain ongoing, there appears to be little clarity thus far regarding the future framework for UN political engagement in Somalia. One option for the Council would be to consider the potential role of the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa in supporting Somalia’s political process following UNTMIS’ departure.

Council Dynamics

Council members support the Somali government’s priorities and recognise the many challenges facing the country, including the persistent insecurity caused by the terrorist activities of Al-Shabaab. They also support ongoing efforts to fight the group. Some members, however, believe that a security approach will not be sufficient and underscore the need to make progress in governance, justice, and economic reforms.

The majority of Council members support addressing AUSSOM’s funding challenges. However, the US remains strongly opposed to considering the issue within the framework of resolution 2719 of 21 December 2023, which authorises the use of UN-assessed contributions to finance AU-led peace support operations. In a 21 April press release, the European Union (EU) announced an additional €75 million in support for AUSSOM to cover troop allowances, non-lethal equipment, and related services for personnel deployed in Somalia.

In October 2025, the UK, the penholder on Somalia, apparently explored the possibility of developing a Council product on post-UNTMIS arrangements, given the upcoming expiration of the mission’s mandate. UNTMIS is currently implementing a two-year phased transition of its functions to the UN Country Team (UNCT) in Somalia. However, Somalia reportedly did not support the proposal, which appears to have been abandoned. Similarly, during negotiations on resolution 2809, Somalia opposed the inclusion of references to UNTMIS in the draft text. This position may reflect Somalia’s reluctance to have the Council engage on Somalia’s internal political developments.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON SOMALIA

Security Council Resolutions
23 December 2025S/RES/2809 This resolution extended the authorisation of AUSSOM until 31 December 2026.

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