June 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 June 2026
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ASIA

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action

In June, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) ahead of its expiry on 17 June.

The Council is also scheduled to hold its quarterly open briefing on Afghanistan. Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General (Political) and Officer-in-Charge of UNAMA Georgette Gagnon is expected to brief. Closed consultations are scheduled to follow the open briefing.

Key Recent Developments

In recent months, the security situation in Afghanistan has remained volatile, marked by escalating cross-border hostilities with Pakistan and ongoing internal security incidents.

Tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan have continued since October 2025, when cross-border frictions escalated markedly, culminating in large-scale clashes in February and March that resulted in significant civilian casualties and heightened regional tensions. Although the intensity of hostilities has decreased in recent weeks, intermittent clashes and cross-border exchanges of fire have persisted, including Pakistani airstrikes in Kunar province and reported drone activity over Kabul. The continued closure of key border crossings has disrupted trade and transit flows, constrained cross-border movement, and further aggravated economic and security conditions in border areas. (For background and more information, see the brief on Afghanistan in our March 2026 Monthly Forecast and our 6 March What’s in Blue story.)

China brought Pakistan and the Taliban authorities together for informal talks from 1 to 7 April in Ürümqi, the capital of China’s Xinjiang region. Media reports citing the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the sides had agreed to explore a “comprehensive solution to the issues in the relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan” and had identified terrorism as the “core issue affecting the relationship”. Beijing also stated that the parties had committed not to undertake actions that would further escalate or complicate the situation.

From 10 to 16 May, China’s Special Envoy on Afghan Affairs Yue Xiaoyong visited Afghanistan and Qatar. In Afghanistan, Xiaoyong held separate meetings with Taliban Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi and Senior Adviser to Interior Minister Anas Haqqani. In Qatar, he met with Minister of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi. Separately, Taliban authorities have also continued bilateral engagements with Russia.

Internal security incidents remain another concern. According to UNAMA, on 10 April, “unidentified gunmen” opened fire on civilians near a Shia shrine located between Injil and Zinda Jan districts in Herat province, killing at least 11 people and injuring 11 others. Media reports indicated that the victims were Shia Muslims, a minority community in Afghanistan, and that the attack occurred in a predominantly Shia village.

The human rights situation in Afghanistan has also continued to deteriorate, particularly for women and girls. In a 21 May press release, UNAMA expressed grave concern about a decree promulgated by Taliban authorities on 14 May that codifies principles governing the separation of spouses. UNAMA noted that the decree contains provisions implying the permissibility of child marriage, including by allowing a girl’s silence upon reaching puberty to be interpreted as consent to marriage. It stated that the decree represents the further erosion of the rights of Afghan women and girls and “entrenches systemic discrimination in law and practice”. More broadly, UNAMA noted that restrictions imposed since August 2021 have systematically excluded women and girls from public life, curtailed economic participation, and exacerbated poverty, with significant long-term consequences for Afghanistan’s development.

Afghanistan continues to face one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. Nearly half of the country’s population—21.9 million people—are projected to require humanitarian assistance this year, with millions suffering from acute and emergency levels of food insecurity as well as an exceptionally severe child malnutrition crisis. At the same time, humanitarian access constraints have continued to affect operations across the country. According to a humanitarian access snapshot issued by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) on 24 May, 66 access-related incidents were recorded in April. Although this represented a 23 percent decrease compared with March, OCHA stated that the decline did not reflect an overall improvement in the access environment. Instead, it was largely attributed to the cessation of hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan, with fewer conflict-related impediments reported.

The large-scale returns to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan have also compounded the humanitarian challenges. On 19 May, the UN, together with national and international non-governmental organisations (NGOs), launched the 2026 Response Plan for Afghan Returnees, which seeks $529.2 million to support an estimated 2.7 million returnees projected to arrive between April and December.

Human Rights-Related Developments

In a 2 April press statement, Richard Bennett, the Special Rapporteur on the human rights situation in Afghanistan, expressed concern about the continued toll of explosive ordnance on Afghan civilians, particularly children. Despite efforts by the Mine Action Programme of Afghanistan, the country remains among the most affected globally by landmines and explosive remnants of war. In 2025 alone, 471 civilian casualties were recorded, 67 percent of whom were children. Cuts in international funding have also forced the downscaling of mine action programmes across the country in recent years, leading to the suspension of clearance operations and a reduction in the number of demining teams. In light of these findings, Bennet urged the international community to increase and sustain funding for mine action programmes in the country.

On 12 May, UNAMA released an update on the human rights situation in Afghanistan, covering the period from January to March, as well as a separate report on civilian casualties resulting from cross-border violence during the same period. According to UNAMA, more than 750 civilians were killed or injured from 1 January to 31 March as a result of cross-border armed violence involving Afghanistan’s “de facto security forces” and Pakistani military forces, with the majority of casualties caused by airstrikes conducted in February and March. UNAMA reported that on 16 March, Pakistani military airstrikes struck the Omid Drug Rehabilitation Hospital in Kabul, killing at least 269 people and injuring a further 122. The overwhelming majority of the casualties were patients receiving treatment at the facility.

Key Issues and Options

The renewal of UNAMA’s mandate will be a key priority for the Security Council in June. One option for the Council would be to extend the mission’s mandate for another year, while taking into account evolving political, security, human rights, and humanitarian developments in Afghanistan and their implications for the mission’s operations and priorities. The Council has not undertaken a comprehensive review or substantial adjustment of the mission’s mandate and priorities since 2022, shortly after the Taliban came to power.

During negotiations on resolution 2818 of 16 March, which most recently extended UNAMA’s mandate, the US argued in favour of a broader assessment of the mission’s tasks and priorities, noting that UNAMA is among the UN’s largest and most resource-intensive special political missions operating in a highly complex environment. It maintained that the Council should assess whether the mission’s mandate remains realistic, appropriately prioritised, and fully implementable under current conditions, including whether aspects of the mandate could be streamlined and better aligned with developments on the ground. (For more information, see our 13 March What’s in Blue story.)

As such, another option is the possibility of undertaking a strategic review of UNAMA, with a view to evaluating how the mission can most effectively implement its mandate and support the UN’s engagement in Afghanistan under current conditions.

In light of the limited progress achieved through the Doha process in addressing foundational political and human rights issues in Afghanistan, Council members could consider convening an informal interactive dialogue (IID) to take stock of current engagement efforts and explore ways to strengthen a more coherent and inclusive political approach to these issues. The Council could invite regional stakeholders; UNAMA; civil society representatives, including Afghan women representatives; and international partners involved in the Doha process and broader diplomatic engagement on Afghanistan.

The Taliban’s continuing refusal to adhere to many of Afghanistan’s international obligations, especially those relating to women and girls, is a major issue. In light of the continued expansion of restrictions imposed by the Taliban, Council members could consider reaffirming these concerns during negotiations on UNAMA’s mandate, including by reiterating resolution 2681, which called for the full, equal, meaningful, and safe participation of women and girls in Afghanistan and urged the Taliban to reverse policies restricting their rights and fundamental freedoms. Ahead of the mandate renewal, Council members could hold an informal meeting with representatives of UN Women, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and civil society to discuss ways for the Council to exert pressure on the Taliban regarding its practices and policies that restrict human rights. Such a meeting could also provide an opportunity to discuss how human rights and women, peace and security priorities could be better reflected in the context of UNAMA’s mandate renewal.

The threat of terrorism coming from Afghanistan remains another issue. Members could consider convening informal meetings with regional counter-terrorism experts to assess emerging terrorism risks and discuss possible responses. Expert-level discussions could help monitor trends, including the activities of terrorist groups operating from or within Afghanistan, and enhance situational awareness.

Council Dynamics

Council members have generally been united in their desire to see Afghanistan governed by inclusive leadership, complying with its international obligations, and free from terrorism, but they are divided over how to achieve this goal.

The US has stated that its top priorities in Afghanistan remain protecting US citizens, mitigating terrorist threats, and securing the release of US detainees. It has accused the Taliban of engaging in “hostage diplomacy” by using detainees as leverage in negotiations and has criticised what it views as insufficient progress on counter-terrorism commitments. The US has also signalled a shift in its approach toward international assistance and engagement in Afghanistan, stressing what it perceives as the limited results of past assistance efforts.

With regard to UNAMA’s mandate, the US stated during its explanation of vote following the adoption of resolution 2818 that it intended to explore ways to streamline the mission’s mandate, remove functions that duplicate other efforts or cannot be effectively implemented under current conditions, and ensure that UNAMA’s activities contribute directly to advancing peace and security in Afghanistan and the broader region.

China and Russia, for their part, have contended that the international community should provide economic and development assistance to Afghanistan without linking it to other issues, such as the rights of women and girls, and favour engagement and dialogue without increased pressure. Both members have repeatedly called for the release of frozen assets belonging to Afghanistan’s central bank—the bulk of which were seized by the US after the Taliban became the de facto authorities in August 2021—and have also pushed for the reinstatement of the standing exemption to the travel ban that expired in August 2022. They have both also underlined the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan as a destabilising factor in the country.

The language used to describe the Taliban and its administration has remained a sensitive issue among Council members. They have expressed differing views regarding the use of the term “de facto authorities”, a formulation regularly used in the Secretary-General’s reports on Afghanistan. It appears that some Council members, including the US, are uncomfortable with the terminology, expressing concern that it could confer legitimacy on the Taliban or imply a degree of de facto recognition. China and Russia, however, reportedly reject this argument, maintaining that the term accurately reflects the realities on the ground in Afghanistan.

China is the penholder on UNAMA.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN
Security Council Resolutions
16 March 2026S/RES/2818 This resolution extended UNAMA’s mandate until 17 June 2026.

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