April 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 April 2026
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AFRICA

South Sudan

Expected Council Action

In April, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the situation in South Sudan. Council members are expected to receive the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on South Sudan by 13 April.

The Council is also expected to vote on a resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) prior to its expiration on 30 April.

Key Recent Developments

The security environment in South Sudan continues to deteriorate, marked by ongoing hostilities across the country between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO), alongside other opposition and affiliated groups. Insecurity has been widespread, at a scale not seen since the signing of the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) in 2018.

Meanwhile, the political landscape in South Sudan has remained highly volatile in light of President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s ongoing unilateral actions, including the dismissal of officials without consultations, in violation of the R-ARCSS. The trial of First Vice President Riek Machar and seven co-defendants is ongoing, reflecting deep political divisions. The opposition remains fragmented, with Kiir appointing members of an SPLA-IO splinter faction led by Stephen Par Kuol to legislative positions. These developments have significantly undermined the agreement, with recurrent ceasefire violations, stalled security sector reform, and entrenched political deadlock severely eroding its viability. (For background and more information, see the brief on South Sudan in our February 2026 Monthly Forecast and 9 February What’s in Blue story.)

In a 1 March press release, UNMISS expressed alarm over surging violence in Abiemnom county, Ruweng Administrative Area, where tensions had been escalating since 27 February and culminated in an attack by “unidentified armed youth” on the county headquarters on 1 March. Media reports indicate that as many as 169 people were killed, including around 90 civilians and several local officials. Local administrators reportedly attributed responsibility to the SPLA-IO, which has denied involvement. UNMISS provided temporary shelter to over 1,000 civilians who fled the fighting within its base in the area and maintained an enhanced protective presence to reinforce security around the site.

According to a 2 March UNMISS press release, a peacekeeping convoy comprising an engineering contingent, accompanied by a security escort of peacekeepers, was ambushed while travelling from Akobo in Jonglei State to Pibor in Greater Pibor Administrative Area.

On 6 March, ahead of a planned military operation in Akobo, the SSPDF issued a 72-hour ultimatum ordering civilians, UNMISS personnel, UN agencies, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) to vacate the area. Akobo is strategically located along the border with Ethiopia and has been under the control of the SPLA-IO since the outbreak of civil war in December 2013. In a 9 March press release, UNMISS said it engaged intensively with national, state, and local stakeholders following the SSPDF’s 6 March announcement, and reaffirmed that its peacekeepers remained in Akobo to maintain a protective presence.

Despite repeated warnings from civil society and the wider diplomatic community about risks to civilian safety and security, clashes erupted in Akobo, after which the SSPDF took control of the town. In a 13 March flash update, the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) noted that the violence led to an estimated 100,000 people crossing into Ethiopia following the SSPDF order. Other internally displaced persons (IDPs) fled to Wanding, Nasir, and Ulang counties in Upper Nile state. OCHA indicated widespread looting of markets, NGO compounds, and Akobo Hospital. Prior to SSPDF’s order, Akobo hosted an estimated 270,000 people, including many IDPs.

Human Rights-Related Developments

In a 10 March press release, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk voiced alarm at growing accounts of serious human rights violations during the ongoing conflict in South Sudan. Over 160 civilians have reportedly been killed, with more than 280,000 people displaced since late December in Jonglei, Lakes, and Upper Nile States. Türk called for an immediate ceasefire and an end to the surging violence, while urging all parties to the conflict to take prompt and meaningful steps to rescue the fledgling peace agreement.

On 19 February, the Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan submitted its annual report on the human rights situation in South Sudan. The report noted that the continued “erosion [of the revitalised agreement] has heightened atrocity risks and undermined legal and institutional safeguards”. It further said that South Sudan’s political and military leaders are systematically dismantling the peace agreement by undermining governance and security safeguards and exposing civilians to grave risks of renewed armed conflict and mass atrocity crimes.

Women, Peace and Security

In a 16 March statement, Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Patten expressed grave concern about the stalled implementation of critical protection measures to prevent and address conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) in South Sudan—including the Action Plan for the Armed Forces on Addressing Conflict-Related Sexual Violence in South Sudan. She noted that the persistent gap between commitments and action has created a “protection vacuum” in which sexual violence remains a “cost-free” tactic of war. Patten highlighted verified CRSV incidents in 2025 implicating state security forces, the SPLA-IO, and other non-state armed groups, and urged the government to expedite the implementation of its commitments on addressing and responding to CRSV and allocate the necessary resources. She called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and CRSV and urged all parties to engage in inclusive dialogue. Noting the critical work of South Sudanese women human rights defenders in maintaining community trust and frontline access for CRSV survivors, Patten called on the international community to close the resource gap that threatens monitoring and life-saving care for survivors.

Key Issues and Options

The renewal of UNMISS’ mandate will be a key priority for the Council in April. A related issue for Council members is how to calibrate the mission’s mandate, particularly its support for the R-ARCSS, amid its increasing erosion. The peace process has been undermined by deep mistrust among political leaders, unilateral actions by the government (including the consolidation of power over state institutions and the weakening of opposition and allied groups), and recurring clashes between parties to the agreement. Furthermore, the lack of financial resources and delays in legal and political decisions continue to stall key transition processes.

One option for members is to amend UNMISS’ mandate, in light of the country’s deteriorating political and security environment, and to consider the following issues.

An important issue is how to approach UNMISS’ electoral support mandate, given that this will be the last renewal ahead of the planned elections in December 2026, which have already been postponed multiple times. An option for the Council would be to request the Secretary-General to report by October an assessment of whether the critical components necessary for holding the elections have been put in place by the South Sudanese authorities, in order to help determine UNMISS’ role in the months leading up to December.

The obstacles to UNMISS’ ability to fulfil its mandate and responsibilities, including restrictions on its freedom of movement and violations of the Status of Forces Agreement, are another issue of concern that will need to be addressed. Attacks against peacekeepers and civilian personnel remain a significant concern for Council members as well. In the upcoming mandate renewal, Council members could consider strongly condemning such attacks and urging the government to ensure accountability, guarantee the safety and security of peacekeepers, and uphold its obligations, including under the Status of Forces Agreement.

UNMISS has recently completed the implementation of a contingency plan in response to the UN-wide financial crisis. An important consideration for the Council in renewing the mandate will be to ensure that the mission has the resources and capacity to deliver on its mandate, particularly its protection of civilians tasks, amid widespread insecurity.

In renewing the mandate, the Council could request UNMISS’ strategic review to inform potential revisions to the mandate, given the rapidly changing situation in South Sudan.

An overarching issue remains how to prevent South Sudan’s continued descent into political and security breakdown, while addressing the structural drivers of recurring violence and instability. The deteriorating humanitarian situation, marked by mass displacement, restricted humanitarian access, and heightened risks to civilians and aid workers, remains a major concern, as does the need to ensure accountability for human rights abuses and violations of international humanitarian law.

The broader regional context is also a major issue for Council members as it continues to pose serious challenges to South Sudan’s political and security situation, particularly through the spillover effects of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, including its humanitarian, security, and socio-economic repercussions.

The Council could also consider inviting the Chair of the AU High-Level Ad hoc Committee on South Sudan to brief the Council on its efforts to support the peace process and update members on the outcome of the Ad hoc Committee’s retreat held in Addis Ababa on the margins of the AU Summit in February.

Council Dynamics

Council members share similar concerns regarding the significant challenges facing the revitalised agreement, the deteriorating security situation resulting from fighting among armed factions, ongoing sub-national and intercommunal violence, and the deepening economic and humanitarian crises.

However, Council members hold differing views on the overall assessment of the situation. The US has taken a more critical stance, arguing that the actions of South Sudan’s leadership have systematically undermined peace prospects and repeatedly brought the country to the brink of war. By contrast, members such as China and Russia have emphasised the need for the international community to exercise patience, prioritise support for regional mediation efforts, and avoid exerting excessive pressure, while continuing to back the government’s efforts to strengthen state institutions. The African members have generally shown understanding towards the concerns of the South Sudanese authorities, while also acknowledging persistent security violations, the continued detention of Riek Machar and other SPLA-IO leaders, and unilateral political reshuffling, which they argue risk undermining the progress of the transitional government and prospects for peaceful and credible elections.

During the negotiations on resolution 2779 of 8 May 2025, which extended UNMISS’ mandate until 30 April, changes introduced by the US to thematic language on women, peace and security (WPS); climate change; misinformation and disinformation; and human rights were contentious. It seems that the European Council members Denmark, France, Greece, and the UK, as well as like-minded members such as Panama, strongly opposed these revisions and coordinated efforts to retain previously agreed thematic language. Another issue related to the extent to which the Council should exert political pressure on South Sudanese leadership. Some members, including the African members, China, and Russia, argued that the draft should maintain a balanced tone vis-à-vis the government and favoured a more measured approach to avoid placing undue pressure on the host-country authorities. (For more information, see our 8 May 2025 What’s in Blue story.)

With regard to UNMISS’ mandate renewal, there appears to be broad support within the Council for the mission’s continued presence. In February, most Council members underscored UNMISS’ important role in promoting peace, its stabilising effect, and its contribution to the protection of civilians, particularly as it operates in an increasingly complex environment. At the same time, members highlighted the need to ensure the mission is equipped with adequate resources for effective mandate implementation amid financial challenges.

The US administration’s current approach to UN peacekeeping most likely will influence the tenor of the negotiations in April, as it has emphasised the need for missions to be more cost-effective and streamlined, with a focus on core peace and security priorities and clearly defined benchmarks.

In its remarks at the 10 February Council meeting , the US expressed strong concern about developments in South Sudan, stating that violence across the country is directly obstructing UNMISS’ ability to protect civilians and is worsening an already dire humanitarian situation. It also condemned what it described as government interference, imposing unnecessary costs on the mission, warning that any further non-cooperation by South Sudan could threaten the mission’s viability and would factor into its future decisions regarding assistance, diplomatic engagement, and the mission’s future.

Apparently, the US, in its role as penholder on the South Sudan file, sought to include language during negotiations on the 13 February press statement  indicating that the actions of the transitional government could jeopardise the mission’s operations and overall viability. This formulation appears to have been opposed by several Council members who were concerned about its implications for the mission’s future and linking the mission’s viability to the government’s actions. Eventually, this language was omitted from the final version of the press statement.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN
Security Council Resolutions
8 May 2025S/RES/2779 This resolution renewed UNMISS’ mandate until 30 April 2026.
Security Council Press Statements
13 February 2026SC/16295 The press statement expressed grave concern at the escalating violence in Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria, and across South Sudan.
Security Council Meeting Records
10 February 2026S/PV.10103 This was the regular meeting on the situation in South Sudan.

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