March 2026 Monthly Forecast

UNDOF (Golan)

Expected Council Action

In March, Council members will hold their quarterly consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan. An official from the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is expected to brief on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF and the most recent developments.

Background and Key Recent Developments

UNDOF was established following the conclusion of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement (the 1974 agreement) between Israel and Syria, which ended the Yom Kippur War. Its mandate is to maintain the ceasefire between the parties and supervise the disengagement of Israeli and Syrian forces, as well as the areas of separation (a demilitarised buffer zone) and limitation (where Israeli and Syrian troops and equipment are restricted) in the Golan.

On 29 December 2025, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2811 renewing UNDOF’s mandate for six months, until 30 June.

Israel continues to maintain a presence in the area of separation—which it expanded into following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024—and from where it also routinely conducts incursions across the ceasefire line, in violation of the 1974 agreement. In recent weeks, Israel has reportedly continued to conduct frequent operations in the Syrian southern governorates of Daraa and Quneitra, including by setting up checkpoints, conducting raids, arbitrarily arresting Syrians, and through artillery shelling. At the beginning of February, Israel also reportedly sprayed chemicals over agricultural land in Quneitra, threatening food security and the livelihoods of the local population.

Israel has cited national security concerns as the basis for its continued violations and has said that it will occupy the buffer zone indefinitely to ensure the demilitarisation and mitigation of threats from southern Syria. Since July 2025, Israel has said that some of its operations have been aimed at protecting the Druze community in Syria’s southern Suwayda governorate from intercommunal violence.

Under its new interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to the 1974 agreement, and despite strongly condemning Israeli attacks, it has not retaliated militarily. Sharaa has sharply criticised Israeli actions, warning that such demands could lead to “a dangerous place”, and he has called for Israel to withdraw its forces and respect the 1974 agreement.

Since Sharaa took power, the US has seemingly adopted a policy of supporting Syria’s progress towards stability and peace with its neighbours, including with Israel. On 6 January, Israel, Syria, and the US held discussions in Paris, following which they issued a joint statement affirming a commitment to achieving mutual security. The statement said that Israel and Syria agreed to establish a joint communication mechanism, which would be supervised by the US, to facilitate coordination on intelligence, military de-escalation, diplomacy, and commercial opportunities between the two sides. On 14 February, Syrian interim Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani reportedly clarified that the discussions were focused on Israel’s withdrawal from Syrian territory occupied since December 2024 and excluded the issue of control over the Golan, which has existed since the 1973 war.

In January, Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix visited UN peacekeeping missions in the Middle East, including UNDOF. In a 16 January briefing to journalists, he noted that the mission’s area of operations had experienced significant changes due to Israel’s positions established inside the area of separation and demanded a “return to the situation where UNDOF would be the only military presence in the area of separation”. Lacroix further described the ongoing talks between the two parties as “positive”.

The Secretary-General’s most recent report on UNDOF’s activities, dated 2 December 2025 and covering the period from 18 August to 15 November 2025, reported continued violations of the 1974 agreement, including the continued presence of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on the Syrian side of the buffer zone. The report said that as at 3 November, the IDF “maintained and reinforced” ten positions that it had established in both the areas of separation and limitation on the Syrian side, adding that UNDOF observed continued “engineering and construction activities” by the IDF in the area of separation. It also reported that the movement of UNDOF personnel was restricted six times, including through IDF roadblocks and constructed gates, and said that on one occasion IDF soldiers aggressively confronted an UNDOF patrol, for which the IDF later made a formal apology.

The next UNDOF report by the Secretary-General is due on 11 March.

Key Issues and Options

The shift in security dynamics in the Golan and ongoing violations of the 1974 agreement are key issues for the Council. Israel’s presence in the buffer zone and repeated violations of the 1974 agreement could risk further destabilising internal security dynamics in Syria or lead to a significant escalation between the parties.

A related issue is the increased challenges UNDOF faces in implementing its mandate, including through movement restrictions imposed on mission personnel due to Israeli activities in the area of operation.

Members could consider adopting a presidential statement urging the parties to uphold international law and their obligations under the 1974 agreement, underscoring that there should be no military forces or activities in the area of separation, other than those of UNDOF. The statement could also express concern over risks posed to local civilian populations by violations of the 1974 agreement and call upon the parties to ensure that UNDOF is accorded the ability to operate safely, securely, and freely in accordance with the agreement. The Council could further urge de-escalation and express support for ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a security agreement between Israel and Syria in such a statement.

Council and Wider Dynamics

The Council remains united in its view that UNDOF plays an important role in regional stability. Despite historical divisions about who holds sovereignty over the Golan, Russia and the US have traditionally considered UNDOF as a separate issue on which they can agree, serving as co-penholders on the file. In addition, following the ouster of Assad, the dynamic between Russia and the US on the Syrian file has shifted. The two countries, once holding strongly opposing views, have shown increased alignment, as demonstrated by their co-penholdership of a 14 March 2025 presidential statement addressing sectarian violence and key issues on Syria’s political transition.

During negotiations on the latest UNDOF mandate renewal in December 2025, the penholders chose to streamline the resolution to focus on the core issues, including the obligation of both parties to respect the 1974 agreement. The resolution also called on the parties to avoid any breaches of the ceasefire and the area of separation, and to regularly liaise with and support UNDOF. The mandate was renewed for the customary period of six months.

Apparently, China wanted to include language in the text that recalled Syria’s counterterrorism obligations; however, this was not included by the penholders. Since Sharaa’s government established control of Syria, China has been particularly vocal in calling on Damascus to take a stronger stance on foreign terrorist fighters, some of whom have been integrated into the country’s security forces and are members of the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which China considers a terrorist organisation and a threat to its security.

The IDF’s recent actions and presence in the Golan have generated criticism from several Council members. Most Council members have consistently demanded Israel’s full withdrawal from Syria, while calling on all parties to adhere to the 1974 agreement. One of the main contentious issues during negotiations on the Council’s 10 August 2025 presidential statement on Syria—which contained a reference to the 1974 agreement and UNDOF’s mandate—was over whether Israel’s military actions in Syria should be explicitly referenced and condemned in the text, with the “A3 Plus” members at the time (Algeria, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Guyana) and Pakistan arguing for such language. Conversely, the US was unwilling to include a direct reference to Israel or its actions. (For more information, see our 9 August 2025 What’s in Blue story.)

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UN DOCUMENTS ON UNDOF

Security Council Resolutions
29 December 2025S/RES/2811 This resolution renewed the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) for six months, until 30 June 2026.
31 May 1974S/RES/350 This resolution established UNDOF.
Secretary-General’s Reports
2 December 2025S/2025/784 This was the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), covering the period from 18 August 2025 to 15 November 2025.
Security Council Meeting Records
17 January 2025S/PV.9840 This was a Security Council meeting on UNIFIL and UNDOF.

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