February 2026 Monthly Forecast

Status Update since our January Forecast 

Venezuela 

On 5 January, the Security Council held an open briefing on Venezuela under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.10085). Council member Colombia requested the emergency meeting following the US military operation in Venezuela on 3 January, during which it removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro Moros and his wife, Cilia Flores, from the country. Venezuela also sent a letter on 3 January requesting an emergency Council meeting (S/2026/5), and China and Russia supported the meeting request. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo delivered a statement by Secretary-General António Guterres. The Council was also briefed by two civil society members, invited by China and Russia, and the US, respectively: Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University and President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, and Mercedes De Freitas, Founder and Executive Director of Transparencia Venezuela. 

Arria-formula Meeting on Peacebuilding 

On 12 January, Somalia convened an Arria-formula meeting titled “Advancing New Paradigms for Peacebuilding: Fortifying Inclusive and Sustainable Approaches to Peacemaking”. Ambassador Abukar Dahir Osman (Somalia) and Ambassador Ricklef Johannes Beutin (Germany), the Chair of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), provided opening remarks. Bert Koenders, Advisory Group Chair of the Principles for Peace Foundation, and Hiba Qasas, Founding Executive Director of the Principles for Peace Foundation, briefed the Security Council on ways of strengthening political settlements for longer-term, sustainable peacebuilding. 

Ukraine 

On 12 January, the Security Council held an open briefing on Ukraine (S/PV.10087). Council members Denmark, France, Greece, Latvia, Liberia, and the UK requested the meeting. The briefers at the meeting were Rosemary DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, and Ramesh Rajasingham, Director of the Coordination Division at the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). 

Cyprus 

On 15 January, the Council held closed consultations on the situation in Cyprus. Special Representative and Head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) Khassim Diagne briefed the Council on the recent developments and key findings from two Secretary-General’s reports on UNFICYP: the semi-annual report on UNFICYP (S/2026/8), and the report on his good offices in Cyprus (S/2026/9). On 30 January, the Council adopted resolution 2815, renewing UNFICYP’s mandate until 31 January 2027. While 13 members voted in favour of the resolution, Pakistan and Somalia cast abstentions.  

Iran Protests 

On 15 January, the Security Council held an open briefing on the recent protests in Iran (S/PV.10091). The US requested the meeting, which was held under the agenda item “The situation in the Middle East”. Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO), Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, briefed the Council, as did the Iranian-American journalists and political activists Masih Alinejad and Ahmad Batebi. Iran participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

Afghanistan 

On 21 January, Council members issued a press statement condemning the 19 January terrorist attack that killed six Afghans and one Chinese national in Kabul (SC/16278). The press statement was penned by China.  

Haiti 

On 21 January, the Security Council held an open briefing on Haiti (S/PV.10093). Special Representative and Head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH), Carlos Ruiz Massieu, briefed on recent developments in the country and the Secretary-General’s latest report on BINUH (S/2026/31). Acting Executive Director of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), John Brandolino, briefed on the latest UNODC quarterly report on sources and routes of illicit arms and financial flows in Haiti (S/2026/32). 

On 29 January, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2814 renewing the mandate of BINUH until 31 January 2027. 

Colombia 

On 23 January, the Security Council held an open briefing on Colombia (S/PV.10095). Special Representative and Head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia, Miroslav Jenča, briefed on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission (S/2025/849). 

Rule of Law 

On 26-27 January, the Council convened for a high-level open debate on “Reaffirming international rule of law: Pathways to reinvigorating peace, justice, and multilateralism” (S/PV.10096, Resumption I and II). The meeting was held under the agenda item “The promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security”. Secretary-General António Guterres, Chairperson of the African Union (AU) Commission Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, and former judge of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) Abdulqawi Yusuf briefed. More than 80 delegations participated in the open debate.   

Middle East, including the Palestinian question  

On 28 January, the Security Council held its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.10098, Resumption I and II). The briefer was Ramiz Alakbarov, the Deputy Special Coordinator and Resident Coordinator at the Office of the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process (UNSCO). Over 60 speakers among the wider UN membership and regional organisations took the floor.  

UNRCCA (Central Asia) 

On 29 January, Kaha Imnadze, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), briefed Council members on the UNRCCA’s work in closed consultations. 

Arria-formula Meeting on “Upholding the Sanctity of Treaties” 

On 30 January, an Arria-formula meeting titled “Upholding the Sanctity of Treaties for the Maintenance of International Peace and Security” was convened at Pakistan’s initiative. Briefers included: David Nanopoulos, the Chief of the Treaty Section at the UN Office of Legal Affairs (OLA); Ahmer Bilal Soofi, the President of the Pakistani-based Research Society of International Law and former Federal Law Minister of Pakistan; Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, the President of the International Peace Institute (IPI) and former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights; and Adil Najam, the Dean Emeritus and Professor of International Relations and of Earth and Environment at the Pardee School of Global Studies at Boston University. 

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