January 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 December 2025
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MIDDLE EAST

Yemen

Expected Council Action

In January, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and an official from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are expected to brief on political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country.

The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), which expires on 28 January, and the monthly reporting requirement on Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, originally mandated by Security Council resolution 2722, which expires on 15 January. 

Background and Key Recent Developments

In December, intra-Yemeni tensions escalated, creating greater uncertainty in an already fragile country. On 2 December, the Southern Transitional Council (STC)—a separatist group from south Yemen, reportedly backed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—launched an offensive which expanded its control over the eastern oil-rich governorate of Hadramout following brief clashes with forces aligned with the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). By 8 December, the STC had also advanced into the eastern governorate of Al-Mahra and claimed to have control over all of Yemen’s southern governorates.

The executive body of Yemen’s internationally recognised government, the PLC, was established in 2022, with the support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to unify Yemen’s diverse political groups and steer the country’s transition out of civil war. Progress towards this aim has stalled, however, as the Houthis—an Iran-backed rebel group which opposes the Yemeni government—have entrenched its control over northern Yemen, while concurrently the various factions that constitute the PLC are mired by internal division. The STC also forms part of the PLC, and its leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, is one of the government body’s vice presidents.  However, since the STC’s creation in 2017, its goal has been to establish an independent state in south Yemen, in contrast with some other members of the PLC, who favour a unified Yemen. South Yemen was an independent state prior to unification with the north in 1990.

In a 3 December statement, the STC said that its operation in Hadramout aimed to prevent the governorate’s exploitation by the Houthis for smuggling purposes and the activities of terrorist groups, such as Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) and Al-Qaida. According to the STC’s website, during a 10 December meeting, Zubaidi said that the group’s expansion of control over the south-eastern governorates is the “starting point” and that the “next objective must be [the Houth-controlled capital] Sana’a—whether through peace or war”. The group has also reportedly told Western diplomats that Yemen’s “1990 unity was over”.

During an 8 December meeting with ambassadors of the states sponsoring the political process, PLC Chairman Rashad al-Alimi said that the STC’s unilateral actions violate the agreed terms of the transitional phase, undermine the PLC’s authority and threaten the political process. He called on the international community to reject such challenges to the government’s authority and to exert pressure on the STC to withdraw its forces from Hadramout and Al-Mahra.

On 9 December, a Saudi delegation reportedly called for the withdrawal of STC forces during a visit to Hadramout. According to media reports, the STC has been warned of the possibility of direct airstrikes by Saudi forces, as Saudi troops have gathered on the Yemeni border.

The developments in Hadramout and Al-Mahra were discussed at a 9 December meeting in Riyadh between UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg, Yemeni Foreign Minister Shaya Zindani, Saudi Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed al Jaber, UAE Ambassador to Yemen Mohammed al-Zaabi, representatives of the permanent five members of the Security Council (P5) and other diplomats. Grundberg called on all actors to exercise restraint and de-escalate through dialogue, emphasising the need to allow space for discussions that support the stability of Yemen.

On 17 December, the Council held its monthly meeting on Yemen. The meeting was only held in closed consultations, apparently to avoid discussing the politically sensitive recent developments in an open setting. Secretary-General António Guterres briefed Council members, following his visit to the region, including Saudi Arabia and Oman. Grundberg and Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya also briefed in the closed session. Following his briefing, the Secretary-General held a press encounter in which he expressed concern at “dramatic new developments” in eastern Yemen, emphasising that “unilateral actions will not clear a path to peace” and that “a full resumption of hostilities could have serious ramifications on regional peace and security”. He urged all parties to exercise restraint and de-escalate tensions through dialogue, while calling for the preservation of Yemen’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Council members issued a press statement on 23 December that referred to ongoing escalations and recent developments in Yemen as not conducive to progress, called for de-escalation, and encouraged “enhanced diplomatic efforts”, while underlining Council members’ support for efforts toward a political settlement. The statement also reaffirmed Council members’ “strong commitment to the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Yemen, and to the [PLC] and the Government of Yemen”.

The Houthis continue to arbitrarily detain personnel from the UN, non-governmental (NGO) and civil society organisations, and diplomatic missions. A 19 December statement attributable to the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General strongly condemned “the arbitrary detention on 18 December of a further [ten UN] personnel by the [Houthis], bringing the total number of UN detained personnel to 69.” Furthermore, a 9 December statement by the Spokesperson condemned the referral of UN personnel to the Houthi special criminal court and called on the Houthis to rescind the decision and work towards the immediate release of all those detained. In his 17 December press encounter, the Secretary-General said that three UN personnel had been referred to the court on charges related to their performance of UN official duties. The Council members’ 23 December press statement also reaffirmed the members’ condemnation of the detentions and reiterated their demand for the release of all those detained by the Houthis. 

On 3 December, the Houthis reportedly released nine crew members whom they had detained following the attack and sinking of the Liberian-flagged, Greek-operated MV Eternity C on 7 July. Since the 8 October announcement of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the Houthis have not conducted any further attacks against Israel or vessels in the Red Sea, after almost two years of tit-for-tat attacks between the Houthis and Israel following the start of the Gaza war.

Key Issues and Options

A key issue for the Council is how to help mitigate the risk of an escalation of hostilities in Yemen, which could see a resumption of full-scale conflict. Volatile dynamics within the PLC, the potential resurgence of conflict between the Houthis and political factions in south Yemen, and the Houthis’ involvement in regional dynamics all pose a risk to the security and stability of the country.

Amid shifting domestic and regional dynamics, Council members could consider convening an informal interactive dialogue (IID)  with regional stakeholders, countries supporting the Yemen political process, and the Special Envoy, to discuss the implications of the latest developments on the UN’s efforts to facilitate an inclusive negotiated political settlement to end the Yemeni conflict. Commitments to a set of confidence-building measures were made by the parties in December 2023; however, discussions aimed at establishing a roadmap to peace, which would have seen the implementation of these commitments, stalled following the Houthis’ escalatory reaction to the Gaza war in October 2023.

As the Houthis continue to arbitrarily detain UN personnel and are referring them to their special criminal court, Council members could consider adopting a humanitarian resolution that demands that the Houthis rescind the referrals to the court, immediately and unconditionally release all personnel detained, and cease further obstruction to the delivery of UN humanitarian assistance in Yemen.

The need to ensure the protection and safety of navigation and shipping in the Red Sea is another important issue that requires maintaining pressure on the Houthis to avoid resuming attacks on merchant ships and global supply chains. One option for the Council is to extend for a further six months the monthly reporting requirement for the Secretary-General on attacks by the Houthis on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea prior to its expiration on 15 January.

Another key issue for the Council is the future viability of UNMHA, in view of its mandate expiration on 28 January 2026. Pursuant to resolution 2786 (adopted on 14 July), on 25 November, the Secretary-General submitted to the Council a review of the mission, including potential adjustments which could improve “efficiencies and structural coherence across [UN] missions in Yemen”. The review presents three options for the Council to consider. One option is to streamline the mission by removing its physical patrolling capacity. The two other options would involve shutting down the mission and augmenting the Office of the Special Envoy to take on relevant core tasks previously covered by the mission in support of the Hodeidah Agreement, either by maintaining a small presence in Hodeidah focused on these tasks, or by closing any full-time UN political presence in Hodeidah and making use of the existing locations of the Office of the Special Envoy. The review also notes that the Houthis have indicated that a withdrawal of the UN political presence from Hodeidah would be considered a formal declaration of the cancellation of the Hodeidah Agreement. Council members are likely to carefully consider the implications of the respective options and decide on UNMHA’s future during the negotiations on its renewal in January. 

Council Dynamics

Despite being critical of the Houthis, most Council members have maintained their support for an inclusive intra-Yemeni political process and continue to call for advancing mediation efforts between the conflict parties, including a resumption of dialogue and a peace process under UN auspices. Recent developments in southeast Yemen, however, undermine the PLC’s legitimacy and further complicate efforts to attain a political settlement. There is also general agreement on the need to restore freedom of navigation and security in the Red Sea.

Negotiations on the sanctions regime renewal in November also highlighted long-standing differences among the five permanent Council members regarding the Houthis. (For more information, see our 13 November What’s in Blue story).

France, the UK, and the US have argued that the Council needs to respond to the worsening situation in Yemen through increased pressure on the Houthis—whom they believe are obstructing a political process in Yemen—including through the strengthening of the Yemen sanctions regime. The US has adopted a particularly hawkish position on the Houthis, unilaterally sanctioning the group and accusing Iran of supporting it.

Conversely, China and Russia have expressed concerns that resolution 2801, which renewed the 2140 Yemen sanctions regime until 14 November 2026, facilitates the potential for expanding the Yemen sanctions regime and establishing maritime interdictions in the future. The two members, who abstained on this resolution, argued that this would escalate tensions and push the parties further away from a political settlement.

China and Russia have also criticised foreign military action in Yemen, claiming that such actions further degrade the situation. In this regard, Israel, the UK, and the US have all conducted strikes targeting Houthi infrastructure since the beginning of the Red Sea crisis.

Diverging positions also exist on the question of UNMHA’s future. The US has stressed that it is time to “sunset” the mission, whereas other Council members, including Russia and China, have expressed support for the mission’s value, highlighting its stabilising role in the Hodeidah region.

The UK is the penholder on Yemen. Greece and the US are the co-penholders on the Red Sea crisis. 

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UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN

Security Council Resolutions
14 November 2025S/RES/2801 This resolution renewed the 2140 Yemen sanctions regime—comprising targeted financial and travel ban measures—for another year, until 14 November 2026, and the mandate of the Panel of Experts supporting the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee until 15 December 2026. The resolution also requests the Panel of Experts to present two reports and advice to the Council by 15 April 2026: one on the flow of dual-use components and precursor chemicals to Yemen and another on improving information sharing and flag State capacity to prevent vessels suspected of violating the sanctions regime from entering Yemen.
15 July 2025S/RES/2787 This resolution extends the Secretary-General’s monthly reporting requirement on Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea until 15 January 2026.
14 July 2025S/RES/2786 This resolution renewed the mandate of UNMHA until 28 January 2026 and requested the Secretary-General to present to the Council, before 28 November 2025, a further review of UNMHA with a view to delivering further efficiencies and structural coherence and coordination across UN missions in Yemen.
Security Council Press Statements
12 September 2025SC/16166 This was a press statement condemning the detention of at least 21 UN personnel, forced entry into UN premises, and seizure of UN property by the Houthis, while demanding the immediate and unconditional release of all those detained.
5 June 2025SC/16079 This was a press statement marking one year since the June 2024 wave of arbitrary detentions of UN and NGO personnel by the Houthis.

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