January 2026 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 December 2025
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EUROPE

Cyprus

Expected Council Action

In January, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) ahead of its 31 January 2026 expiry. Earlier in the month, Security Council members are expected to receive a briefing in consultations on the situation in Cyprus by Special Representative and Head of UNFICYP Khassim Diagne.

Key Recent Developments

Over the past six months, UN efforts to sustain momentum on the Cyprus issue have continued through a series of high-level engagements aimed at advancing the implementation of confidence-building measures (CBMs), despite the persistence of longstanding disagreements regarding the parameters of a settlement. Although political divisions remain, both sides have participated in a number of high-level, UN-facilitated informal meetings, marking the most sustained period of dialogue since the breakdown of talks in 2017.

Following the informal meeting on Cyprus in a broader format—bringing together the two Cypriot leaders and the three guarantor Powers (Greece, Türkiye, and the UK)—held in Geneva on 17–18 March of this year, Secretary-General António Guterres convened another informal meeting in the same format on 16–17 July in New York with Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides and then Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar.

During the meeting, the parties reviewed progress on the CBMs agreed earlier in the year, but did not reach agreement on several key outstanding issues, including the opening of new crossing points. According to the Secretary-General, four of the six agreed initiatives have been achieved. These include the establishment of a technical committee on youth; initiatives related to the environment and climate change, including impacts on mining areas; the restoration of cemeteries; and an agreement on demining, which is to be finalised once remaining technical details are resolved. Discussions were expected to continue on the remaining two initiatives, namely the opening of four crossing points and the development of solar energy in the buffer zone. In addition, the leaders reached a common understanding on the establishment of a consultative body for civil society engagement, the exchange of cultural artefacts, an initiative on air quality monitoring, and measures to address microplastic pollution.

In early September, the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy on Cyprus, María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar, travelled to the island for consultations in advance of anticipated leader-level engagement during the high-level week of the UN General Assembly. On 27 September, Guterres held a trilateral meeting in New York with Christodoulides and Tatar, after which he indicated that his Personal Envoy would conduct further consultations to support preparations for a future informal meeting in a broader format.

On 3 September, Guterres appointed Khassim Diagne as his Special Representative and Head of UNFICYP, succeeding Colin Stewart, who left the post in August.

On 19 October, Tufan Erhürman won the Turkish Cypriot leadership election, replacing Ersin Tatar. Erhürman, who campaigned on a platform advocating a return to negotiations based on a federal solution, secured a decisive victory, receiving 62.8 percent of the vote. Following the election, however, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reiterated his support for a two-state approach. In a speech delivered on 3 November to the Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Erdoğan called on participants to “further support the Turkish Cypriots’ fight for rights, freedom and justice, which is based on a two-state solution”.

On 20 November, Christodoulides and Erhürman met under UN auspices at the UN residence in the buffer zone, with the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy, Holguín, participating virtually. During the meeting, Erhürman presented a 10-point proposal aimed at fostering conditions conducive to the launch of a new negotiating process. The proposals included measures to enhance youth interaction between the two communities; a joint visit by the two leaders to the Committee on Missing Persons (CMP) in the buffer zone; addressing property-related arrests; and establishing direct communication channels between Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot security forces.

In addition, Erhürman presented a separate four-point proposal for relaunching formal negotiations towards a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus issue. This approach reportedly envisaged, inter alia, acceptance of political equality by the Greek Cypriot side, the conduct of negotiations within a defined timeframe, the preservation of all past agreements, and a UN guarantee that embargoes imposed on the Turkish Cypriots would be lifted should the Greek Cypriot side withdraw from negotiations. According to the UN press briefing by Spokesman for the Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric on 20 November, the leaders expressed readiness to work towards another informal meeting in a broader format to be convened by the Secretary-General.

On 11 December, the Personal Envoy returned to the island and convened a joint meeting with Christodoulides and Erhürman. According to a press statement by the UN Spokesperson in Cyprus, the leaders agreed to accelerate work on practical CBMs, including the opening of new crossing points, the granting of access to EU markets of halloumi/hellim by producers from both communities, and the completion of the long-delayed pipeline associated with the Mia Milia/Haspolat water treatment plant, as well as measures to improve the functionality of existing crossing points.

A report in line with the Secretary-General’s UN80 initiative, which was issued on 18 September 2025, proposed structural and programme realignments for the Office of the Special Adviser on Cyprus, including functional streamlining through greater use of support services shared with UNFICYP. In this context, the proposed 2026 programme budget reflects a reduction of $1.2 million (37.7 percent) for the Office, including the proposed abolishment of eight posts, among them the Special Adviser at the Under-Secretary-General level. The elimination of the Special Adviser post is attributed to the absence of formal negotiations since 2017 and the appointment of the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy on Cyprus to follow up on initiatives agreed in Geneva in March 2025. Notwithstanding these adjustments, the Office is expected to continue supporting political engagement, CBMs, and the work of bicommunal technical committees. These changes are taking place against the backdrop of the broader UN liquidity crisis, which may affect funding for UNFICYP and the Good Offices in Cyprus.

Human Rights-Related Developments

In a 9 September press release, UN experts expressed grave concern over reports of exploitative recruitment and employment practices against migrant workers at a citrus farm in the northern part of Cyprus. The UN experts received information that such “workers were subjected to threats, coercion, and violence by company-controlled intermediaries who engaged in direct acts of violence as well as by company officials who used their influence to make public threats”. Despite complaints raised by these workers, Turkish Cypriot authorities had not carried out thorough investigations or implemented effective accountability measures against the alleged perpetrators. The UN experts urged the authorities to conduct effective investigations into allegations of trafficking in persons and access to remedies, as well as to ensure compensation for the victims affected.

At the 60th session of the UN Human Rights Council, the UN Working Group on the use of mercenaries presented a full report of its 16-24 January 2025 visit to Cyprus. While acknowledging the positive strides the country has made in regulating private security companies in the maritime context, the Working Group stressed the importance of applying the same high standards and scrutiny to those operating on land. Among other recommendations, it called on Cyprus to consider establishing an independent, proper oversight body or mechanism to oversee these private security actors and ensure that they are not engaged in human rights violations and abuses.

Key Issues and Options

Since the collapse of the 2017 talks in Crans-Montana, the key issue for the Security Council has been the absence of sustained progress towards resuming a formal political process. While the leader-level meeting on 11 December under the facilitation of the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy suggests a renewed willingness to pursue practical cooperation, Holguín has acknowledged that further work is needed before an informal meeting in a broader format can be convened.

Against this backdrop, an option for the Council, in the context of the upcoming renewal of UNFICYP’s mandate (which expires on 31 January 2026), would be to use the resolution to encourage the parties to build on recent engagements and to avoid steps that could undermine the political climate, including actions that heighten tensions in the buffer zone.

The Council could also consider inviting Holguín to brief members during the consultations on Cyprus on her assessment of whether conditions are emerging for a broader-format meeting. Another option would be to hold such a discussion in an informal interactive dialogue (IID) format, a closed, informal meeting that could allow for a frank exchange of views with Holguin and both Cypriot leaders.

In addition, Council members may wish to consider the potential implications of the proposed UN80-related budgetary and staffing adjustments affecting the Office of the Special Adviser on Cyprus, as well as the possible impact of the broader UN liquidity situation on UNFICYP and the Secretary-General’s Good Offices in Cyprus. While the Secretariat has indicated that the Office will continue to deliver on its core political mandate through a streamlined structure, some members may seek greater clarity on how these financial and structural constraints could affect political engagement, support for CBMs and the implementation of UNFICYP’s mandate ahead of the mission’s renewal. In this context, the Council could request a briefing from the Secretariat to assess any potential operational or mandate-related implications.

Council Dynamics

Cyprus remains a low-intensity issue on the Council’s agenda. Permanent members with a vested interest in Cyprus include France, Russia, and the UK, which also serves as the penholder on the issue. Greece, which was elected on 6 June 2024 to serve as a non-permanent member of the Security Council from 2025 to 2026, is a key stakeholder in relation to UNFICYP and one of the three guarantor powers.

While the Council is united in its support for UNFICYP and a political process based on a bicommunal, bizonal federation (BBF) with political equality, members diverge on the conditions and timeframe for the unification talks. Some members have previously supported a comprehensive strategic review of the mission and timed benchmarks for an exit strategy tied to the political process. Russia has been adamant that there should be no external interference or attempts to impose solutions or timelines that might influence the peace talks.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON CYPRUS
Security Council Resolutions
31 January 2025S/RES/2771 This resolution extended the mandate of UNFICYP until 31 January 2026.
Secretary-General’s Reports
3 July 2025S/2025/447 This was the Secretary-General’s report on the UN operation in Cyprus.
3 July 2025S/2025/448 This was the Secretary-General’s report on his mission of good offices in Cyprus.

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