December 2025 Monthly Forecast

AFRICA

Libya

Expected Council Action  

In December, the Security Council will hold its 60-day briefing on the situation in Libya. Special Representative and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Hanna Serwaa Tetteh will brief the Council on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country.

Background and Key Recent Developments

The political impasse in Libya continues between the UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU), based in Tripoli and led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah, with advisory support from the High State Council (HSC), and the eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS), led by Prime Minister Osama Hamad and backed by the House of Representatives (HoR) and the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) under the command of General Khalifa Haftar. The parties remain deadlocked over proposed legislation to hold national elections that would reconcile the country’s divided government. A key point of contention is over the formation of a unified interim government to organise the elections—a move favoured by the GNS and HoR but opposed by the GNU and some segments of the HSC. The prolonged stalemate between the rival governments has persisted since the indefinite postponement of the 2021 elections.

Ahead of UNSMIL’s mandate renewal in October, the Secretary-General submitted to the Council a report containing a strategic review of the mission aimed at increasing the effectiveness and efficiency of UNSMIL’s overall structure. The review reiterated that UNSMIL’s core mandate is to support a political solution to the Libyan conflict and therefore recommended streamlining all the mission’s workstreams to prioritise this task. It emphasised the importance of the economic track to the country’s political transition and long-term stability and recommended strengthening this aspect of UNSMIL’s mandate. The review also highlighted the importance of UNSMIL’s engagement in human rights and the rule of law as integral components of the political process. In this regard, it advised that UNSMIL should fully leverage the convening power of the UN by leading and providing Secretariat support to the working groups of the Berlin Process, the UN-supported negotiation track that facilitated the 2020 ceasefire agreement. Another one of the review’s recommendations was to streamline the mission’s engagement on the security track from ceasefire implementation to confidence-building and reunification of military and security institutions.

In terms of operational configuration, the review recommended that UNSMIL maintain a consistent presence in eastern and southern Libya, with targeted expansions in Benghazi and Sabha. The review argued that this is essential for the mission to be perceived as representative and inclusive. It acknowledged that expanding UNSMIL’s presence will require significant resources and recommended that the mission offset these costs through reallocation of resources, realigned staffing, and improved efficiency through cost-saving measures and external support services.

On 31 October, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2796, which extended the mandate of UNSMIL for another year. The resolution included the above-mentioned recommendations from the strategic review.

On 18 October, UNSMIL issued a statement welcoming the holding of elections that day in 16 municipalities in eastern, central and southern parts of the country. Initially scheduled for August, the election process in these municipalities was postponed due to a combination of deliberate disruptions, security incidents, and political interference. The statement also commended the High National Elections Commission (HNEC) and its staff for successfully organising 91 municipal council elections across Libya over the past year despite challenging circumstances.

During the Security Council’s most recent briefing on Libya, held on 14 October, Tetteh noted the lack of progress toward reaching major milestones on the political roadmap to lead Libya to national elections and unified institutions. (The roadmap consists of three core pillars: adopting a viable electoral framework for presidential and legislative polls; unifying institutions under a new government; and launching a structured dialogue on governance, economic, security, and reconciliation issues to pave the way for these elections and address long-term conflict drivers.) She called on political leaders to engage in good faith in preparing for the elections. However, she indicated that UNSMIL is prepared to pursue an alternative course and may seek the Council’s support to advance Libya’s political transition should the stalemate persist.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 11 November, Libya’s human rights record was examined by the UN Human Rights Council’s Universal Periodic Review (UPR) Working Group during the UPR’s 50th session in Geneva, marking its fourth review under the UPR. To facilitate the review, a national report was provided by the state under review in addition to a compilation and summary prepared by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).

At the session, Acting Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, Eltaher Salem M. Elbaour, presented the steps Libya has taken to implement recommendations posed during its previous reviews, which it committed to follow up on. Elbaour also highlighted recent human rights developments in the country, reaffirming the Libyan government’s condemnation of all human rights violations and its commitment to ensuring accountability and human rights for the Libyan people despite the prevailing challenges.

The Working Group subsequently adopted the report on Libya at its 15th meeting, held on 14 November.

Key Issues and Options 

A key concern for the Council remains the fragile security situation in the country, which has become even more acute after the recent escalation of violence in Tripoli in May. While the violence has ceased, the UN has warned that it could have spiralled out of control and seriously undermined the permanent ceasefire reached in 2020. Citing reports of military build-up in and around Tripoli in July, UNSMIL has called on all parties to refrain from using force and to avoid actions that could lead to renewed clashes. The violence underscores the need for sustained attention to the political and security dynamics in Libya. A possible option for the Slovenian presidency is to invite a civil society representative to an informal meeting to hear perspectives on the potential undercurrents that could affect the stability of the country.

Another continuing core issue for the Council is how best to support the road map for a Libyan-led and Libyan-owned political process that Tetteh presented in August. One of the main objectives for the Council is to help foster common political ground between the country’s rival governments to reach an inclusive agreement on electoral laws, including the possible establishment of a unified interim government to organise the elections.

Given the ongoing renewed efforts by UNSMIL to facilitate dialogue between Libyan political stakeholders, Council members wish to ask Tetteh how they can support the roadmap that UNSMIL presented in August, particularly political progress towards national elections to unify Libya’s divided government. One option might be a presidential statement as a follow-up to the press statement issued by the Council in September.

Resolution 2796 encouraged the mission to implement various recommendations from the most recent strategic review. Given that the UN is facing a serious financial crisis and considering the UN80 initiative, a core issue for the Council will be the ability of UNSMIL to implement these recommendations. While the resolution mandated the Secretary-General to report to the Council on this issue, Council members could seek a briefing on this issue in closed consultations.

Council Dynamics 

Council members remain united on the need for a Libyan-led, inclusive political process resulting in elections that will help to restore political, security, and economic stability to the country. They also remain broadly supportive of the UN’s mediation role towards this end. Council members also share concerns about the fragile security situation in the country, especially after the escalation of violence in Tripoli in May.

At the October meeting on Libya, Council members were generally supportive of the political roadmap presented by Tetteh. Most members emphasised that the process must be Libyan-led and Libyan-owned and fully inclusive of all political actors to ensure success. Members such as Greece, the Republic of Korea, Russia, and the UK  stressed the urgency for Libyan stakeholders, particularly the House of Representatives and the High Council of State, to complete the initial milestones—reconstituting the High National Elections Commission (HNEC) and adopting the constitutional/electoral framework—as these first steps are critical to translating the roadmap into tangible actions and preventing continued delays.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA

Security Council Resolution
31 October 2025S/RES/2796 This resolution extended UNSMIL’s mandate for twelve months and encouraged the mission to implement the recommendations from the strategic review.
Security Council Press Statement
3 September 2025SC/16161 This statement welcomed the 21 August Tetteh’s briefing in which she outlined the road map to advance a Libyan-led and Libyan-owned political process.
Secretary-General’s Report
30 September 2025S/2025/611 This report contained strategic review of UNSMIL.

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