November 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 2 November 2025
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Print
  • Share
MIDDLE EAST

Syria

Expected Council Action

In November, the Security Council is expected to hold its monthly meeting on political and humanitarian developments in Syria. Deputy Special Envoy for Syria Najat Rochdi and Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher are expected to brief.

Key Recent Developments

Syria continues to grapple with a fragmented security landscape. On 6 October, tensions between the Syrian interim government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—a Kurdish-led group which controls most of Syria’s de facto autonomous northeast territory—escalated when clashes broke out between the interim government’s forces and SDF forces in Aleppo, reportedly resulting in the deaths of at least one government soldier and one civilian. The next day, a ceasefire was agreed between the two parties, following talks which were reportedly brokered by the US and included Sharaa and the SDF’s commander, Mazloum Abdi. In a 12 October interview, Abdi said that the two sides had reached a “preliminary agreement” on integrating the SDF into Syria’s defence and interior ministries, a key element of the 10 March agreement between the two parties, which aimed to have the SDF integrate by the end of the year. A central issue is that the SDF has called for a secular and decentralised state and maintains that the 14 March transitional constitutional declaration does not represent Syria’s diversity and concentrates too much authority with the interim president.

Meanwhile, Türkiye—which has become a key supporter of Syria’s interim government—is reportedly pressuring the SDF to integrate by the end of the year. Türkiye opposes Kurdish autonomy in northeast Syria and considers the SDF as a threat due to its ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which it designates as a terrorist group.

The 18 July ceasefire in Suweida—a southern governorate in Syria, which saw deadly clashes between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes erupt on 13 July—has continued to hold. Despite the ceasefire and a roadmap aimed at resolving the crisis—agreed to by Syria’s interim government, the US, and Jordan, but rejected by some Druze militias—tensions and volatility in southern Syria persist, and the humanitarian situation continues to degrade. According to the UN, as at 8 October, in Suweida, essential services were strained with disruptions in food, health, agriculture and education sectors. From July to September, OCHA facilitated humanitarian assistance to 420,000 people in the region each month.

On 10 October, Syrian interim Foreign Minister Assad al-Shibani and Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji held a meeting in Beirut in an attempt to rebuild relations, following decades of tensions between the neighbours. The main issues discussed reportedly included border security, the status of Syrian prisoners in Lebanon and Lebanese missing persons in Syria, and the return of Syrian refugees.

Terrorism and the resurgence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) continue to pose a threat to Syria, exacerbated by the country’s fragile security situation. On 16 October, a terrorist attack on a Ministry of Energy transport bus in Deir ez-Zor killed four people and injured nine others. At the time of writing, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. For its part, Syria’s interim government has made commitments to counter terrorist threats and is cooperating with the US to counter ISIL, including through conducting joint operations. According to a 30 September report by Reuters, the US is scaling down its military presence in Iraq in order to refocus on combating ISIL in Syria.

On 5 October, Syria held elections for its new legislature, the People’s Assembly. 119 representatives were elected indirectly through electoral colleges. Elections were postponed in three governorates—Suweida, which is currently held by the Druze minority, al-Hasakah, and Raqqa, which are held by the Kurdish-led SDF—due to security and political issues. On 23 October, supplementary elections took place to fill three seats from the al-Hasakah and Raqqa governorates, while, according to the Syrian state news agency SANA, the remaining seats in these governorates and in Suweida will stay vacant until “appropriate security and political conditions are met for by-election”.  The remaining one-third of the Assembly’s seats are to be chosen directly by Sharaa. The majority of elected members are Sunni Muslim and male, with only 13 percent of representatives elected on 5 October having been won by women and minorities. The Higher Committee for People’s Assembly Elections’ spokesperson, Nawar Najmeh, acknowledged “shortcomings” of the process, highlighting the “unsatisfactory” representation for women and Christians.

In her 22 October briefing to the Council, Rochdi highlighted that among the 119 elected on 5 October, there was “one Christian, three Ismailis, three Alawites, four Kurds and no Druze”. She also said that some Syrian interlocutors criticised the process for being “rushed”, “with opaque decision-making, last-minute changes to legal procedures, and low public engagement”. Rochdi urged the Syrian authorities and civil society to learn from the process and work towards inclusive future elections, offering the UN’s support to that end.

A critical part of the political transition process is the effort to rehabilitate and bolster the Syrian economy, as Syrians grapple with the repercussions of years of war, repressive rule and sanctions. According to a 21 October World Bank report covering the period between 2011 and 2024, post-conflict reconstruction costs for Syria are estimated at $216 billion. To help Syria rebuild, some countries have discussed enhancing economic cooperation or setting up investment projects, while others have continued processes to lift sanctions on the country.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 23 September, Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro, the Chair of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, delivered an address to the UN Human Rights Council during its 60th session on Syria’s human rights situation. Following a visit to Syria, Pinheiro highlighted that the country’s human rights situation, while vastly different from that of the Assad era, is nonetheless dire. Among other recommendations, Pinheiro called on member states to take decisive action to support the Syrian people’s legitimate aspirations and urged them to assist the interim Syrian authorities in building towards this future in the face of substantial challenges.

On 7 October, the Commission subsequently completed its first visit to communities affected by violence in Suweida. During its visit to the city and the governorate, it engaged with survivors and other affected community members and leaders, among other relevant stakeholders, to hear testimonies of suspected violations of international human rights and humanitarian law. It also expressed concerns over the sharing of misinformation regarding its visit and investigations in the region. Among other matters, the Commission emphasised that it would continue its investigations to address urgent human rights concerns, including through engagement with all impacted communities and relevant stakeholders.

Women, Peace and Security

Briefing the Security Council at the 22 October Security Council meeting on Syria, Deputy Special Envoy for Syria Najat Rochdi said that an overwhelming sentiment among many Syrian women is that the processes and initial outcomes of the political transition have not met their expectations and the commitments made by the interim authorities. She noted that women’s participation in the recent elections remained limited—with only six women elected to the People’s Assembly out of 119 seats contested—and low representation across electoral bodies and candidates. Rochdi called for clearer measures and strategies to prevent women’s exclusion from leadership roles, a stronger legal and political stance against discrimination, and “state action to ensure protection from harassment, threats and violence”. She also underscored that Syrian women remain engaged in the transition process and demand that future electoral processes are designed to protect their right to participate.

Key Issues and Options

A key issue for the Council is to ensure that Syria’s interim government pursues a credible, transparent, and inclusive political process, while navigating a fraught security context compounded by intercommunal tensions, terrorism, and external interference. Central to this issue are Damascus’ efforts in pursuing disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) efforts, and in fostering social cohesion and transitional justice, including accountability and reconciliation.

The UN’s future role in Syria is another key issue for the Council. Under instructions from the Secretary-General, the UN Secretariat has conducted an integrated strategic assessment of the changing situation in the country, which has been finalised in an internal report. Based on this report, the Secretary-General has considered what type of UN presence in Syria would be most suitable to meet the country’s current needs.

Council members could request an informal briefing on the results of the integrated strategic assessment. They could also consider convening an Informal Interactive Dialogue (IID) with the participation of Syria and relevant UN entities to discuss the most viable options for future Council engagement with Syria.

Council members could further consider negotiating a new resolution to update Security Council resolution 2254, which would reflect the current context and political transition. (Adopted in December 2015, resolution 2254 focused on a political solution to the Syrian crisis, and several of its principles are still viewed by the international community as benchmarks required for a successful Syrian political transition.)

Another issue is that UN sanctions on Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—a terrorist group, formerly affiliated with Al-Qaida and ISIL, whose military campaign under Sharaa’s leadership led to the ouster of Assad—are impacting the interim government. HTS—referred to as an alias for the Al-Nusrah Front on the 1267/1989/2254 sanctions list—Sharaa, and Syria’s interim interior minister Anas Khattab are all listed under the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions regime, which imposes an asset freeze, travel ban and arms embargo on listed individuals and entities. The Council is currently negotiating a draft resolution that seeks to apply carve-outs to this sanctions regime, aimed at facilitating economic engagement for Syria. The US, the penholder on the file, authored the draft text.

Council Dynamics

Council members are aligned on the need for the Syrian authorities to advance an inclusive, Syrian-owned and Syrian-led political process based on the key principles of resolution 2254. They broadly agree that the threat of intercommunal violence cannot be addressed without advancing inclusive accountability measures, DDR and security sector reform (SSR) efforts, together with a credible political process in the country. The US and Russia worked together on the 14 March presidential statement following violence perpetrated in Latakia and Tartous, while Denmark authored the 10 August presidential statement in response to violence in Suweida.

There is broad agreement among Council members that the new Syrian government requires international support to rebuild the country and its crippled economy, including through the easing of unilateral sanctions.

Since US President Donald Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria, the US has been engaged in efforts to stabilise the situation in the country. On 10 October, the US Senate voted to repeal the “Caesar Act”—Congressional sanctions which were imposed on Syria due to the crimes committed by Assad’s government—bringing the legislation a step closer to being fully repealed. Furthermore, US mediation has played a key role in brokering the ceasefires with the SDF in the northeast and the Druze in the south. It is also mediating discussions to establish a security pact between the Syrian interim government and Israel.

Other Council members are also taking steps to build relations with the authorities in Damascus and facilitate the political transition. France has been engaged in mediation efforts between Damascus and the SDF. The UK announced on 21 October that it is removing HTS from its list of proscribed terrorist organisations to allow “closer engagement with the new Syrian government”. And on 15 October, Sharaa held a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where both parties acknowledged their historical ties and Putin called Syria’s parliamentary elections “a great success” which “can help consolidate society”.

Many Council members also agree on the need for the Syrian interim government to take decisive measures to address the threat posed by foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) and ISIL (Da’esh). China has been particularly vocal in calling on Damascus to take a stronger stance on FTFs in the country, some of whom have reportedly been integrated into the Syrian armed forces. Several FTFs constitute part of the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement, which China considers a terrorist organisation and is also listed under the UN 1267 sanctions regime.

Israel’s presence and military activities in Syria remain a point of contention for Council members. Most members believe Israel’s actions are fostering instability in Syria and that it must comply with the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement. In contrast, the US has predominantly seen Israel’s actions as defensive in nature or tied to ensuring its national security.

Sign up for SCR emails
UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA 

Security Council Resolution
18 December 2015S/RES/2254 This was the first resolution focused exclusively on a political solution to the Syrian crisis. It was adopted unanimously.
Security Council Presidential Statements
10 August 2025S/PRST/2025/6 This was a presidential statement condemning violence against civilians in Suweida in July 2025, calling for unhindered humanitarian access to the region, and calling on the Syrian interim authorities to ensure accountability.
14 March 2025S/PRST/2025/4 This was a presidential statement condemning sectarian violence perpetrated in Latakia and Tartous and calling for accountability and the protection of all Syrians, regardless of ethnicity or religion.

Subscribe to receive SCR publications