November 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 2 November 2025
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AFRICA

Sudan/South Sudan

Expected Council Action

In November, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA).

The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of UNISFA and extend the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), established in 2011 to conduct monitoring and verification activities along the Sudan-South Sudan border, before their expiration on 15 November.

Key Recent Developments

According to the Secretary-General’s 15 October UNISFA report, which covered developments from 16 April to 1 October, no progress had been made in resolving the final status of Abyei—the disputed area along the Sudan-South Sudan border—amidst ongoing hostilities in Sudan and political uncertainty in South Sudan. The report said that no meetings of the Joint Political and Security Mechanism and the Abyei Joint Oversight Committee—which is tasked with providing administrative and political oversight of Abyei and is co-chaired by a Sudanese official and a South Sudanese official—could take place.

The Secretary-General’s report highlighted the persisting security challenges in Abyei and documented a total of 127 security incidents resulting in the deaths of 34 people, a notable increase from the previous reporting period, which witnessed 91 incidents resulting in 22 people killed. Moreover, reports of sporadic gunfire, including near UNISFA facilities, increased from 8 during the previous reporting period to 40 between 16 April and 15 September.

The increase in security incidents has been attributed to the presence of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a Sudanese paramilitary group, in northern Abyei. RSF elements were frequently observed in the Amiet market area and along the Amiet–Diffra road, in Abyei, where they reportedly operated checkpoints. In late May, the RSF took control of the community protection committee office in Dari, northern Abyei, and intermittently co-located with joint community peace committee members collecting tolls north of Amiet market. The group has also sought to strengthen its ties with Misseriya traditional authorities. UNISFA monitored reports indicating that RSF elements had arbitrarily arrested local officials appointed by Khartoum and transferred them to undisclosed locations outside Abyei. (For more information, see our 18 March What’s in Blue story.)

The Secretary-General’s report also noted the continued presence of South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and South Sudan National Police Service personnel in southern Abyei, where they have established checkpoints, which have restricted UNISFA’s patrols and logistical movements and obstructed the establishment of a temporary base at Anthony Junction in southern Abyei. The SSPDF has also continued to occupy civilian structures in the area.

In early October, clashes erupted in southern Abyei between rival factions of the unified protection force, comprising the SSPDF and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO). Media reports suggested that the fighting resulted in 14 fatalities, eight from the SSPDF and six from the SPLA-IO. In a press briefing, the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General, Stéphane Dujarric, said that UNISFA had evacuated more than 100 civilians, mostly women and children, from the village of Malual Aleu to its Kadhian base, while over 90 civilians sought protection at the mission’s Rumamier base in southern Abyei.

The Secretary-General’s report noted that Sudan’s ongoing conflict continues to significantly affect the JBVMM’s operations. The closure of Sudanese airspace has prevented aerial monitoring, while security concerns have deterred private contractors from resupplying the JBVMM site in Kadugli, Sudan. The Sector 1 headquarters in Gok Machar, South Sudan, along with its two team sites, remained non-operational. Despite these challenges, the JBVMM continued to implement its mandate through ground monitoring missions and situation assessment patrols. Due to the deteriorating security situation, UNISFA began temporarily reducing its presence in Kadugli on 13 August, pending improvements in the security and operational environment.

Between June and September, UNISFA’s leadership travelled to Juba five times and undertook one visit to Port Sudan to meet with senior officials and discuss evolving security challenges in Abyei and the JBVMM area. During these meetings, UNISFA urged both sides to resume discussions on Abyei and border issues, stressing that the presence of state and non-state forces violates the 2011 Agreement on Temporary Arrangements for the Administration and Security of the Abyei Area and continues to hamper the mission’s operations. The mission also raised concerns over arms proliferation and rising crime, underscoring the urgent need to deploy the three formed police units, authorised by the Council through resolution 2469 of 14 May 2019. It further discussed ongoing logistical challenges affecting resupply efforts and plans to reduce the JBVMM headquarters footprint in Kadugli, while emphasising the need for sustained support to ensure the safety of UNISFA air operations.

On 16 October, Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix visited Abyei to discuss the impact of the ongoing UN liquidity crisis on the implementation of UNISFA’s mandate with the local administration and Ngok Dinka traditional leaders. During his meetings with UNISFA leadership and personnel, Lacroix was briefed on the mission’s contingency planning and its implications for the mission’s operational effectiveness. A press release following the visit highlighted appeals from civil society representatives, who described UNISFA as “the only protection force” in the area and called for special consideration for Abyei, citing the unique security and humanitarian challenges facing the region.

Key Issues and Options 

A key issue for the Council in November is UNISFA’s mandate renewal. A likely option for Council members is to adopt a resolution to renew the mission’s mandate for one year and consider what changes to the mission’s mandate, if any, are necessary. Council members are likely to be guided by the findings of the strategic review requested by resolution 2760 of 14 November 2024, which last extended UNISFA’s mandate for one year.

On 18 August, the Secretary-General submitted the review, which underscored the need for UNISFA to adapt to maximise its ability to respond effectively to mandate implementation challenges across a spectrum of issues. Members may wish to discuss whether any of its recommendations require changes to UNISFA’s mandate. Among other things, the report highlighted the need to reinvigorate UNISFA’s political role; respond to operational necessity and reassess what the parties need from the JBVMM; prioritise support to security and safety in Amiet market; strengthen whole-of-mission protection efforts throughout Abyei; and achieve greater efficiency and effectiveness in mission support.

The fundamental issue for the Council remains how to reinvigorate the political process to address the final status of Abyei and outstanding Sudan-South Sudan border issues amid the war in Sudan, which has stalled progress, and the fragile political situation in South Sudan. Securing a ceasefire in Sudan is seen as essential to mitigating the conflict’s impact on the security, humanitarian, and socioeconomic conditions in Abyei.

Also, an important issue for the Council is the presence of armed actors, including the RSF and South Sudanese forces in Abyei, in violation of the area’s demilitarised status. The ongoing fighting in Sudan and shifting intercommunal dynamics in Abyei and South Sudan, particularly south of the boundary, have contributed to an increased presence and influence of armed groups in Abyei, leading to greater criminality and insecurity, and posing risks to the safety of peacekeepers. The proliferation of small arms in Abyei further risks exacerbating intercommunal tensions and undermining the overall security situation.

The operational difficulties that UNISFA and the JBVMM face because of the presence of South Sudanese forces in Abyei, restrictions on the freedom of movement of the mission, and the conflict in Sudan are matters of concern for Council members. The fighting has forced UNISFA to change its supply routes, creating significant logistical and security constraints for both the mission and the JBVMM. A persistent issue remains the lack of deployment of Council-authorised formed police units and the appointment of a civilian deputy head of mission, due to a lack of agreement from the Sudanese government.

In renewing UNISFA’s mandate and its support for the JBVMM, the Council could underscore the operational challenges facing the mission, including restrictions on freedom of movement, and urge the parties to cooperate fully with UNISFA to address these concerns. The Council could also use this opportunity to reaffirm its support for the mission and encourage efforts to address the underlying drivers of insecurity, notably the presence of armed groups and the proliferation of weapons. Furthermore, Council members could urge the parties to resolve outstanding issues, including the deployment of formed police units and the appointment of a civilian Deputy Head of Mission.

Council Dynamics

At the outset, Council members agree on the important roles that UNISFA and the JBVMM play in supporting peace, security, and stability in Abyei and the broader region. However, they have expressed concern about recurring intercommunal violence, the presence of armed actors in the area, attacks against peacekeepers, and the compounding effects of Sudan’s conflict on the political, humanitarian, and security situation in Abyei, as well as the operational and logistical challenges facing the mission.

Since UNISFA’s establishment in 2011, all Council resolutions renewing the mission’s mandate have been adopted unanimously, with the exception of the last renewal resolution, which was adopted with all members voting in favour except Russia. In its explanation of vote, Russia argued that some elements of the resolution were “hardly related” to the immediate situation in Abyei and said that the text placed excessive focus on Sudan’s internal conflict, describing this approach as counterproductive.

Traditionally, the US has emphasised UNISFA’s role in protecting civilians, called for adequate resourcing of the mission, and underscored the importance of ensuring freedom of movement, removing obstacles to mandate implementation, and advancing the demilitarisation of Abyei. However, Washington’s broader efforts to scale back its financial support to the UN may influence its approach to the mission’s future mandate. At the time of writing, it remained unclear how the current US administration of President Donald Trump will approach the renewal of UNISFA’s mandate. Several Council members are likely to prioritise ensuring that UNISFA retains sufficient capacity and flexibility to respond to the evolving security environment and preserve the fragile stability the mission has helped sustain in Abyei.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN

Security Council Resolutions
14 November 2024S/RES/2760 This resolution renewed UNISFA’s mandate for another year, until 15 November 2025. The resolution also extended for one year the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM). The resolution was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia), marking the first abstention on a UNISFA resolution since the mission’s establishment in 2011.
Secretary-General’s Reports
15 October 2025S/2025/649 This was the Secretary-General’s report on UNISFA.
Security Council Letters
18 August 2025S/2025/518 This was UNISFA’s strategic review, mandated by resolution 2760.

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