November 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 2 November 2025
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Status Update since our October Forecast    

Sudan 

On 1 October, Security Council members held closed consultations on Sudan. The meeting was requested by Denmark, France, Greece, Panama, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Slovenia, and the UK (the penholder on the file) to receive an update on the humanitarian and political situations in the country, specifically in light of the current escalation of violence in El Fasher in North Darfur state; ongoing efforts to secure a humanitarian pause; and recent diplomatic engagements on Sudan, including during the General Assembly’s high-level week. Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra and Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya briefed. 

On 30 October, the Security Council held an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Sudan (S/PV.10027), in keeping with resolution 2715 of 1 December 2023, which called for the Council to be briefed every 120 days on “UN efforts to support Sudan on its path towards peace and stability”. The meeting had previously been scheduled for early November; however, the UK (the penholder on the file), Denmark, and the “A3 Plus” members (Algeria, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Guyana) requested that the date of the meeting be moved forward because of the dire situation in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher and Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO), Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, briefed in the open chamber. Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General for Sudan Ramtane Lamamra briefed members via videoconference (VTC) in the closed consultations.   

Council members also issued a press statement on 30 October expressing “grave concern over escalating violence in and around El Fasher”, calling on all parties to the conflict “to allow and facilitate safe and unhindered humanitarian access in a manner consistent with international law”,  and calling for “the protection of civilians and for safe passage for those trying to flee the city” (SC/16204). 

Colombia   

On 3 October, the Security Council held an open briefing on Colombia (S/PV.10010). Miroslav Jenča, Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas and Special Representative and Head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia-designate, briefed on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission (S/2025/595).  

On 31 October, the Council adopted resolution 2798, renewing the mandate of the verification mission for another year, until 31 October 2026. The text received 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (Russia and the US). It removed two of the mission’s tasks related to the implementation of the 2016 Final Agreement for Ending the Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting Peace between the government of Colombia and the former rebel group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP). These are: verifying compliance with the restorative sentences handed by the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (SJP)—the judicial component of the Comprehensive System for Truth, Justice, Reparation, and Non-Repetition established by the 2016 agreement—and monitoring implementation of the agreement’s ethnic chapter. 

In their explanations of vote, many Council members regretted the fact that consensus could not be reached on retaining the two tasks and expressed their continued support for Colombia in its efforts to fully implement the peace agreement.   

Women, Peace and Security  

On 6 October, the Security Council held its annual open debate on women, peace and security (S/PV.10011), which resumed and ended on 7 October (Resumption I). UN Secretary-General António Guterres and UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous briefed. Human rights attorney Noura Erakat and Olga Uskova, President of Cognitive Technologies, also briefed.  

UN-AU Cooperation 

On 7 October, the Council held its annual briefing on cooperation between the UN and regional and sub-regional organisations, focusing on the African Union (AU) (S/PV. 10012). Special Representative of the Secretary-General to the AU and Head of the UN Office to the AU (UNOAU) Parfait Onanga-Anyanga briefed the Council on the Secretary-General’s annual report on strengthening the partnership between the UN and the AU on issues of peace and security in Africa, including the work of the UNOAU published on 25 August (S/2025/532). Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations, Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, also briefed the Council, focusing on the implementation of resolution 2719 of 21 December 2023 on the financing of AU-led peace support operations. Additionally, Permanent Observer of the African Union to the UN, Mohamed Fathi Ahmed Edrees, briefed. 

Somalia

On 8 October, the Security Council held a private meeting on Somalia (S/PV.10013). Special Representative for Somalia and Head of the UN Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) James Swan briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest report (S/2025/613) on the implementation of the mandates of UNTMIS and the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS). Special Representative of the African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson (SRCC) for Somalia and Head of the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), El Hadji Ibrahima Diene, also updated the Council on the implementation of the mission’s mandate, in accordance with resolution 2767 of 27 December 2024. Additionally, the chair of the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Eloy Alfaro de Alba (Panama), briefed on the committee’s work. 

Western Sahara  

On 10 October, Council members received a briefing in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s annual report on the situation in Western Sahara. The briefers were the Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, and the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), Alexander Ivanko. 

On 28 October, Council members held closed consultations on MINURSO to discuss the negotiations on the mission’s mandate renewal. The consultations were requested by Algeria. 

On 31 October, the Council adopted resolution 2797 renewing MINURSO’s mandate for one year (S/PV.10032). Twelve members voted in favour of the resolution and three (China, Pakistan and Russia) abstained.  Algeria did not participate in the vote.  After the resolution was adopted, Ambassador Amar Bendjama, Algeria’s Permanent Representative to the UN, stated that the text does not “faithfully reflect…the UN doctrine with regard to decolonization”. 

UNDOF (Golan) 

On 3 October, Council members received a briefing in consultations on the work of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) from Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Khaled Khiari. 

Venezuela  

On 10 October, the Security Council held an open briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item to discuss developments related to Venezuela, including US strikes in the Caribbean Sea at alleged drug traffickers (S/PV.10015). Miroslav Jenča briefed in his capacity as Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas. Venezuela requested the meeting in a 9 October letter (S/2025/633). China and Russia supported the meeting request.   

Great Lakes Region (DRC) 

On 13 October, the Security Council held its biannual briefing on the Great Lakes (S/PV. 10016). Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Great Lakes Region Huang Xia briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest biannual report on the implementation of the 2013 Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework (PSC-F) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the region, which was circulated to Council members on 1 October and covers the period from 28 March to 15 September (S/2025/615). Closed consultations followed the open briefing. 

Haiti

On 17 October, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2794, renewing the 2653 Haiti sanctions regime for another year (S/PV.10018). The resolution added two individuals—Dimitri Herard and Kempes Sanon—to the 2653 sanctions list. 

On 22 October, the Security Council held an open briefing followed by closed consultations on Haiti (S/PV.10022). Special Representative and Head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) Carlos Ruiz Massieu briefed.  

Informal Joint Seminar and Joint Consultative Meeting in Addis Ababa  

On 16 October, the 10th joint informal seminar between Security Council members and AUPSC members was held. Members of the two Councils exchanged views on the women, peace and security (WPS) agenda, the threat posed by terrorism in Africa, and the implementation of resolution 2719 on the financing of AU-led peace support operations. 

On 17 October, Security Council members held their 19th annual joint consultative meeting with members of the African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. They discussed the issue of enhancing and supporting AU-led peace support operations (AUPSOs), with particular emphasis on the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). They also exchanged views on pressing peace and security issues in Africa, with a focus on three regional situations ─ the situation in the Sahel and the Lake Chad Basin; the situation in the Horn of Africa, including Sudan and South Sudan; and the situation in the Great Lakes region, particularly the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This year, the meeting concluded without adopting a joint communiqué. Although Council experts and their AUPSC counterparts continued negotiations virtually on the draft until 24 October, they were not able to reach the necessary consensus.  

On 30 October, members of the Security Council and the AUPSC issued a press statement that “recalled and reaffirmed all previous joint communiqués adopted during their annual joint consultative meetings”.  The press statement also briefly described the agendas of the joint informal seminar and the joint consultative meeting this year.  

Kosovo

On 21 October, the Security Council convened its second regular briefing this year on the situation in Kosovo (S/PV.10019). Deputy Special Representative and Officer-in-Charge of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Milbert Dongjoon Shin, briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest report on UNMIK (S/2025/634), which was circulated to Council members on 10 October and covers developments from 16 March to 15 September. Serbia participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, while Kosovo and the European Union (EU) participated under rule 39. 

The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question 

On 23 October, the Security Council held its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.10023). Russia chose to designate the meeting as a signature event of its October Council presidency. The briefer was Ramiz Alakbarov, the Deputy Special Coordinator and Resident Coordinator at the Office of the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process (UNSCO). Over 70 speakers among the wider UN membership and regional organisations took the floor. 

The United Nations: Looking into the Future 

On 24 October, the day the UN Charter entered into force 80 years ago, the Security Council held an open debate titled “The United Nations Organization: Looking into the Future” under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.10024 and Resumption I). Secretary-General António Guterres briefed via VTC. Russia convened the open debate as the signature event of its October Council presidency. 

A presidential statement authored by Russia, which was adopted during the meeting, reaffirmed the Security Council’s commitment to the UN Charter and to multilateralism (S/PRST/2025/7). 

Annual Briefing by ICJ President 

On 29 October, the Council held its annual private meeting with the president of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), Judge Yuji Iwasawa.  

Bosnia and Herzegovina  

On 31 October, the Security Council held its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) (S/PV.10028). There was no briefer. Željko Komšić, the Croat member of the rotating tripartite inter-ethnic Presidency of BiH and the incumbent Chairman of the Presidency, as well as representatives of Croatia and Serbia participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, while the EU took part under rule 39. During the meeting, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2795 renewing the authorisation of the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) for an additional year. 

 

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