November 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 2 November 2025
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AFRICA

South Sudan

Expected Council Action

In November, the Security Council will hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the situation in South Sudan. Council members are expected to receive the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on South Sudan and developments in the country by 4 November.

The mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) expires on 30 April 2026.

Key Recent Developments

Recent months have been marked by rising political volatility and a worsening security environment, amid continued hostilities across multiple areas in the country between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the South Sudan Liberation Army-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO), alongside other opposition and allied groups. These clashes have involved aerial bombardments and ground operations. The ceasefire agreed to in the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) has effectively collapsed, while force unification has unravelled amid ongoing SSPDF offensives, as well as defections to and recruitment by the SSPDF. (For more information, see the brief on South Sudan in our August 2025 Monthly Forecast and 15 August What’s in Blue story.)

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit has continued to make unilateral appointments, replacing opposition officials with loyalists and reshuffling positions within his own faction, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM). He promoted Benjamin Bol Mel to the rank of General in the National Security Service’s Internal Bureau. Mel had previously been appointed Vice-President for the Economic Cluster in March and was later named the SPLM’s First Deputy Chairperson. Earlier in October, President Kiir removed Dau Aturjong Nyuol as Chief of Defence Forces and reinstated Paul Nang Majok, who had held the post until July.

On 11 September, South Sudan’s government brought charges against First Vice-President Riek Machar, leader of the SPLA-IO, and seven of his allies for murder, treason, and crimes against humanity. Machar and these other individuals have been under house arrest or detention since March, while 13 additional suspects reportedly remain at large. Justice Minister Geng Akech accused Machar of orchestrating attacks in Nasir, during which the White Army (an armed youth militia from the Nuer community) overran an SSPDF garrison, killing more than 250 soldiers.

The trial commenced on 22 September before a Special Court in Juba. Machar has refuted the charges as a “witch-hunt” and asserted immunity as a sitting vice-president. His defence also challenged the court’s jurisdiction, arguing that any such crimes should be tried by a hybrid court under the African Union (AU), in line with the 2018 Revitalised Peace Agreement. The court has rejected these objections, including those concerning the constitutionality of the proceedings.

A delegation of the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) members undertook a field mission to Juba from 10 to 12 August. According to a press release issued following the visit, the delegation met with President Salva Kiir Mayardit and held consultations with senior government officials; representatives of the Troika on South Sudan (Norway, the UK and the US), the European Union, UNMISS, the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD); as well as civil society stakeholders. The AUPSC delegation urged full implementation of the revitalised agreement; called for a permanent ceasefire and enhanced protection of civilians and humanitarian workers; expressed support for holding elections in December 2026; and advocated an inclusive, high-level political dialogue.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 16 September, the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan released a report examining the impact of corruption on the country’s human rights situation. The report presented evidence of systematic theft and the misappropriation of substantial government revenues, which have severely undermined the state’s capacity to uphold human rights, while fuelling armed violence and related atrocities. It observed that the transitional government has not been held accountable for widespread fiscal mismanagement and corruption, noting that individuals implicated in corrupt practices have been awarded government contracts, retained in public office, and, in some cases, promoted to senior state positions.

On 25 September, the UNMISS Human Rights Division (HRD) released its quarterly brief on violence affecting civilians, covering April to June. The brief documented 334 incidents of violence affecting 1,518 civilians. During this period, HRD documented 30 cases of conflict-related sexual violence, as well as 65 incidents of sexual- and gender-based violence across South Sudan. The brief noted that the HRD was unable to access areas affected by reported aerial bombardments since the resurgence of hostilities earlier this year; as a result, the number of documented cases has likely been underreported.

Key Issues and Options

The main issue for the Council is how to prevent South Sudan from descending into another cycle of conflict, while addressing the structural factors that drive recurring violence and political instability. Analysts have noted that the current situation is the closest the country has come to renewed civil war since the signing of the 2018 revitalised agreement. Ensuring accountability for human rights abuses and violations of international humanitarian law, and breaking the cycle of impunity, also remain key issues.

A related issue is how the Council and the broader international community can prevent the transition from collapsing amid increasing political fragmentation. The peace process has been undermined by deep mistrust among political leaders, unilateral actions by the government (including the consolidation of power over state institutions and the weakening of opposition and allied groups), and recurring clashes between parties to the agreement. Furthermore, the lack of financial resources and delays in legal and political decisions continue to stall key transition processes.

Another important issue for Council members is the difficult financial situation facing UN peacekeeping operations and what impact this will have on UNMISS. In a 10 October letter, Secretary-General António Guterres informed the Council that all peacekeeping missions have been instructed to implement contingency plans to reduce expenditures by 15 percent, affecting both uniformed and civilian components. As a result, 25 percent of uniformed personnel and their equipment will need to be repatriated in the coming months. Although it is unclear precisely what percentage of UNMISS personnel and equipment will need to be repatriated, the figure is expected to be significant and have a detrimental effect on the mission’s operations. During a visit to South Sudan in October, Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed South Sudanese leaders and the diplomatic community on the impact of the budget cuts, including the closure of some bases and a reduction in peacekeeping personnel.

Council members may want to seek further information on how the austerity measures recently announced by Guterres will affect UNMISS’ operations. In this regard, they could consider inviting Lacroix to brief the Council.

The broader regional context continues to pose serious challenges to South Sudan’s political and security situation, particularly through the spillover effects of the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which have had significant humanitarian, security, and socio-economic repercussions.

As the situation continues to evolve, the Council may need a more timely and adaptive approach to better align its response with developments on the ground. The fast-changing dynamics demand a more flexible and proactive engagement by the Council. Members could use the November briefing to firmly press the parties to uphold their commitments, return to the ceasefire, and take concrete steps to prevent any further deterioration of the political and security situation. Members might find value in organising informal briefings with expert analysts to keep informed of the developments on the ground.

Another option for Council members could be to consider a product addressing the underlying conditions perpetuating insecurity and uncertainty in South Sudan. Council members last adopted a press statement on 21 March responding to developments in the country.

Additionally, Council members could explore the possibility of undertaking a visiting mission to South Sudan to assess conditions first-hand and engage directly with parties to the R-ARCSS. (The last Council visiting mission to South Sudan took place in 2019.)

Council Dynamics

Council members share similar concerns regarding delays in implementing the revitalised agreement, fighting among armed factions, ongoing sub-national and intercommunal violence, and the deepening economic and humanitarian crises.

During the Council’s most recent briefing on South Sudan, held on 18 August, a majority of members expressed concern about the deteriorating political and security situation, including the intensification of violence and its devastating impact on civilians. Many members voiced alarm at the arrest and continued detention of First Vice-President Riek Machar and other political leaders and called for their release. Such actions, they said, have undermined the revitalised agreement and the fragile gains made toward peace and stability. Several members, including “A3 Plus” members, also underlined the need to invest political will and adequate resources to support the institutions responsible for delivering credible elections.

However, members hold differing views on the overall assessment of the situation and the degree to which the Council should exert pressure on the parties to commit to the implementation of the revitalised agreement. Some members, such as the US, have been more critical of what they view as the South Sudanese government’s lack of political will to advance the peace process. During the 18 August meeting, the US said that “the actions of the South Sudanese leadership have signalled a de facto abandonment of the 2018 peace agreement” and leaders from all parties share responsibility for the failures to meet their commitments under the agreement. Russia, however, disagreed with what it described as “exceedingly alarmist assessments” of the situation in the country and called on Council members to support Juba’s efforts to reinforce state institutions. China, as well, noted that the international community should maintain the “necessary tolerance and patience”, support regional mediation efforts, and “refrain from illegal and undue interference or pressure”.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN

Security Council Resolutions
8 May 2025S/RES/2779 This resolution renewed UNMISS’ mandate until 30 April 2026.
Secretary-General’s Reports
7 August 2025S/2025/504 This was the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on UN Mission in South Sudan, covering developments between 1 April and 15 July 2025.
Security Council Meeting Records
18 August 2025S/PV.9980 This was a meeting on the situation in South Sudan.

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