November 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 2 November 2025
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Print
  • Share
AFRICA

Libya

Expected Council Action

In November, the Security Council is expected to vote on a resolution renewing the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya, bound to or from Libya, that they have reasonable grounds to believe are violating the arms embargo. The current authorisation expires on 28 November 2025.

During November, the Council is also expected to receive the semi-annual briefing on the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) activities related to the situation in Libya.

Key Recent Developments

The Security Council last renewed the authorisation for maritime inspections through resolution 2780 on 29 May for a period of six months. This was a departure from the established practice of renewing the authorisation annually. The European Union (EU) naval operation EUNAVFOR Med IRINI (Operation IRINI) remains the only regional arrangement to inspect vessels under this authorisation. The resolution requests the Secretary-General to report on the implementation of the measures within five months of the resolution’s adoption. Among others, this report is expected to contain information about the activities of Operation IRINI, such as the number of hailings (making contact with other vessels), friendly approaches (consensual visits to vessels that can be carried out without flag state approval and without the use of enforcement measures), and vessel inspections related to the arms embargo. At the time of this writing, the report had not yet been published.

During her 14 October briefing, Special Representative and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Hanna Tetteh updated the Council on the progress on the political roadmap for Libya, which is aimed at unifying state institutions and holding national elections. Citing a lack of progress in meeting major milestones on the political roadmap, she urged Libyan leaders to engage constructively in efforts to resolve outstanding issues and make progress on key steps towards the national elections. At the meeting, EU members of the Council (France, Greece, and Slovenia) expressed support for the reauthorisation of Operation IRINI.

On 31 October, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2796, which extended the mandate of UNSMIL for another year.

The Council is expected to receive a briefing this month from one of the Deputy Prosecutors on ICC’s Libya-related activities. ICC Prosecutor Karim Ahmad Khan has been on administrative leave since May.

In February 2011, the Council referred the situation in Libya to the ICC through resolution 1970, which requested biannual updates from the prosecutor. The court has jurisdiction over crimes listed in the Rome Statute committed on Libya’s territory or by its nationals from 15 February 2011 onward. The ICC opened investigations in March 2011 related to alleged crimes against humanity (including murder, imprisonment, torture, persecution, and other inhumane acts) and war crimes (including murder, torture, cruel treatment, and outrages upon personal dignity). There is currently one open case before the court, centred on Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, the son of deposed Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi. On 27 June 2011, the court charged Qaddafi with two counts of alleged crimes against humanity and issued a warrant for his arrest. He remains at large.

On 16 July, German authorities arrested Khaled Mohamed Ali El Hishri pursuant to an arrest warrant issued by the ICC. El Hishri was a senior official in the Special Deterrence Forces (SDF), an armed group in Tripoli, and one of the top officials at Mitiga Prison. The ICC Prosecutor’s Office alleges that he is responsible for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed in and around Mitiga Prison in Tripoli between February 2015 and early 2020. El Hishri remains in German custody, pending legal proceedings and possible transfer to the ICC in The Hague.

On 18 January, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Osama Elmasry Njeem, suspected of crimes against humanity and war crimes in Libya from February 2015 onward. Njeem allegedly oversaw Tripoli prison facilities, where thousands were murdered, tortured, raped, and subjected to sexual violence. On 19 January, Italian authorities arrested Njeem in Turin, Italy. However, on 21 January, the Rome Court of Appeal (that is, an Italian appellate court) ordered his release due to a procedural error. That same day, Italy returned Njeem to Libya, citing security concerns. The ICC claims Italian authorities failed to notify them of any warrant issues. The ICC Pre-Trial Chamber invited Italy to submit an explanation, which Italy eventually submitted on 6 May. In it, Italy argued that it did not surrender Njeem due to procedural flaws in his arrest, competing extradition requests from Libya, and a national security expulsion order allowing his return to Libya, among others.

On 17 October, the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber found that Italy did not comply, did not act with due diligence and did not use all reasonable means at its disposal to comply with the request for cooperation. Pursuant to Article 87(7) of the Rome Statute, the ICC Pre-Trial will now consider whether to refer the matter to the Security Council.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 8 October, the UN Human Rights Council (HRC) adopted resolution 60/32 on technical assistance and capacity-building in Libya. Among other recommendations, the resolution calls on the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to continue providing technical assistance and capacity-building to Libya as provided in relevant HRC resolutions and to present at the Council’s sixty-fourth session a report on the present resolution’s implementation, to be followed by an interactive dialogue.

In a 2 October press statement on Libya’s human rights situation, Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights Nada Al-Nashif emphasised that a long, enduring legacy of serious human rights violations and abuses challenges Libya’s political transition. She expressed concerns over the lack of credible progress made by Libyan authorities in holding alleged perpetrators of atrocity crimes accountable. Although positive steps have been taken to improve the situation, the Deputy High Commissioner noted that key legislative reforms still face setbacks owing to political fragmentation and a lack of institutional commitment. In light of these findings, she stressed that any sustainable political settlement for Libya must be anchored in justice and human rights. Among other recommendations, Al-Nashif called for sustained technical assistance in Libya to promote and protect human rights and establish a rights-based transition under the political roadmap.

Key Issues and Options

The key issue for the Council in November is to renew the authorisation for maritime inspections off the coast of Libya. Council members could continue the regular practice of convening an informal interactive dialogue to discuss its implementation with an EU representative. A possible option for the co-penholders (France and Greece) is to propose a reauthorisation of maritime inspections for one year with no significant changes, as it was the norm prior to this May. Should the Council face opposition to a one-year renewal of authorisation, it could revert to a six-month renewal as was the case in May.

A key issue relevant to the ICC is how to promote accountability for the crimes committed in Libya in recent years. An option would be for Council members who are parties to the ICC to hold a joint press stakeout in connection with the meeting to assert their support for the court’s work in Libya and encourage the Libyan authorities to cooperate closely with the ICC.

Council Dynamics

Until 2022, the Council unanimously renewed the maritime inspection authorisation every year. Since then, Russia has abstained on the vote, questioning the viability of the authorisation. It has noted that Operation IRINI has failed to uncover significant arms supply channels and has alleged that the operation conducts its inspections in a selective and non-transparent manner.

In May this year, the Council renewed authorisation for six months, departing from the established practice of one-year renewals. During the consultations with the co-penholders prior to the circulation of a draft resolution, it seems that Libya was opposed to the renewal of the authorisation. As a compromise solution, it seems that the co-penholders and Libya agreed on a six-month extension. China and Russia abstained during the vote on this resolution. The US and European members of the Council have traditionally been very supportive of Operation IRINI.

Regarding the ICC, Russia has consistently accused the court of inefficiency and pro-Western bias. During the May briefing by ICC Prosecutor Khan, Russia argued that the ICC has failed to make any progress on the Libyan file in the more than 14 years since the Council’s referral. It also said that ICC’s interference in Libyan political processes has undermined the country’s sovereign efforts towards reconciliation.

While not as forceful in their criticisms, some other Council members have also expressed reservations about the court’s work. China has described it as a violation of the principle of national sovereignty, while African members have long expressed concerns about the court’s perceived disproportionate focus on their continent.

Those Council members that are state parties to the Rome Statute of the ICC—currently Denmark, France, Greece, Guyana, Panama, the Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, and the UK—are generally supportive of the court’s work.

Sign up for SCR emails
UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA

Security Council Resolutions
29 May 2025S/RES/2780 This resolution renewed for six months the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya, bound to or from Libya, that they have reasonable grounds to believe are violating the arms embargo.
31 October 2024S/RES/2755 This resolution extended UNSMIL’s mandate for three months, until 31 January 2025, with a “further automatic extension” of an additional nine months, until 31 October 2025, if a new Special Representative and Head of UNSMIL has been appointed by 31 January 2025.

Subscribe to receive SCR publications