October 2025 Monthly Forecast

UNDOF (Golan)

Expected Council Action

In October, Council members will hold the quarterly consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) in the Golan. An official from the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is expected to brief on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF and the most recent developments.

UNDOF’s mandate, which is typically renewed every six months, expires on 31 December 2025.

Background and Key Recent Developments

UNDOF was established following the conclusion of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement (the 1974 agreement) between Israel and Syria, which ended the Yom Kippur War. Its mandate is to maintain the ceasefire between the parties and supervise the disengagement of Israeli and Syrian forces, as well as the areas of separation (a demilitarised buffer zone) and limitation (where Israeli and Syrian troops and equipment are restricted) in the Golan.

On 30 June 2025, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2782 renewing UNDOF’s mandate for another six months. 

Following the ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, the situation in the Golan has changed significantly due to an increased presence of Israel Defence Forces’ (IDF) troops in the demilitarised buffer zone and operations across the ceasefire line, in violation of the 1974 agreement. Since Assad’s removal, Israel has repeatedly conducted airstrikes and ground operations on Syrian territory. Israel has cited national security concerns as the basis for its continued violations and has said that it will occupy the buffer zone indefinitely to ensure the demilitarisation and mitigation of threats from southern Syria. In July, some of its operations were ostensibly aimed at protecting the Druze community in Syria’s southern Suweida governorate from intercommunal violence.

Under its new interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to the 1974 agreement, and despite strongly condemning Israeli attacks, it has not retaliated militarily. Recent Israeli operations have reportedly included ground incursions into Deraa governorate and Syrian towns along the ceasefire line on 14 September, deadly IDF raids of positions held by the Syrian army outside Damascus on 28 August, and a 24 August IDF strike which killed one person in Quneitra, a city located within the buffer zone.

The Secretary-General’s most recent report on UNDOF’s activities, dated 26 September and covering the period from 20 May to 17 August, reported continued violations of the 1974 agreement, including at least nine breaches of the ceasefire and the continued presence of the IDF in the area of separation. The report said that as of 4 August, the IDF “maintained and reinforced” ten positions it had established in both the area of separation and limitation on the Syria side. It also documented numerous observations of IDF strikes on former Syrian armed forces positions, and IDF interceptions of “aerial objects” flying towards the Israeli side. Additionally, UNDOF personnel reported experiencing continued restriction of movement in their area of operations, from both the IDF and the Syrian authorities, in violation of the 1974 agreement. According to the report, some UNDOF patrols were also obstructed by groups of armed individuals in the area of limitation on the Syrian side, which the mission assessed were related to a spillover of tensions from the clashes involving the Druze in Suweida.

Through US mediation efforts—following a commitment by US President Donald Trump to support progress towards Syria’s stability and peace with its neighbours—Sharaa has reportedly said that the interim government is pursuing a security agreement with Israel, which would ensure respect for Syria’s airspace and territorial integrity. On 24 September, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that a deal with Damascus “depends on ensuring Israel’s interests, which include, among other things, the demilitarization of southwestern Syria and safeguarding the safety and security of the Druze in Syria”. According to reporting by Axios, Israel is proposing that the area southwest of Damascus be divided into three zones with distinct security arrangements. On 23 September, US Special Envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack—who has been directly involved in the discussions—reportedly said that the two parties are close to striking a “de-escalation” agreement as a first step towards reaching a security deal.

According to a 17 September report by Human Rights Watch, IDF actions in southern Syria since December 2024 have severely impacted Syrian civilians, including through forced displacement, home seizures and demolitions, denial of access to farmland, and “unlawful transfer of Syrian detainees to Israel”. The report stresses that such actions violate international humanitarian law and that forced displacement is a war crime.

Key Issues and Options

In light of the significant shift in security dynamics in the Golan and increased challenges for UNDOF, a key issue for the Council is how to address ongoing violations of the 1974 agreement and obstructions preventing the mission from carrying out its mandate. A related issue is UNDOF’s ability to carry out its mandate in light of restricted movement due to Israeli activities in the area.

Another issue for the Council is that the significant Israeli presence in the buffer zone and repeated violations of the 1974 agreement could risk further destabilising internal security dynamics in Syria or lead to a significant escalation between the parties that could re-ignite the Israeli-Syrian conflict.

Members could consider adopting a presidential statement urging the parties to uphold international law and their obligations under the 1974 agreement, underscoring that there should be no military forces or activities in the area of separation, other than those of UNDOF. The statement could also express concern over risks posed to local civilian populations by violations of the 1974 agreement and call upon the parties to ensure that UNDOF is accorded the ability to operate safely, securely and freely in accordance with the agreement. The Council could further urge de-escalation and express support for present diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving a security agreement between Israel and Syria in such a statement.

Council and Wider Dynamics

The Council remains united in its view that UNDOF plays an important role in regional stability.

Despite historical divisions about who holds sovereignty over the Golan, Russia and the US have traditionally considered UNDOF as a separate issue on which they agree, serving as co-penholders on the issue.

Following the ouster of Assad, the dynamic between Russia and the US on the Syrian file has seen a shift. The two countries, once holding strongly opposing views, have shown increased alignment, as demonstrated by their co-penholdership of a 14 March presidential statement addressing sectarian violence and key issues on Syria’s political transition. They also agreed on a 10 August presidential statement, authored by Denmark—the humanitarian penholder for Syria—focused on violence in Suweida in July, which included a call “for the respect of the 1974 Disengagement Agreement, including the principles regarding the Area of Separation, as well as the mandate and role of UNDOF, and stresse[d] the obligation on all parties to fully abide by its terms and to maintain calm and reduce tensions”.

The IDF’s recent actions and presence in the Golan—as well as statements by Israeli officials on this issue—have generated criticism from several Council members. Most Council members have consistently demanded Israel’s full withdrawal from Syria, while calling on all parties to adhere to the 1974 agreement. One of the main contentious issues during negotiations on the Council’s 10 August presidential statement, was over whether Israel’s military actions in Syria should be explicitly referenced and condemned in the text, with the “A3 Plus” members (Algeria, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and Guyana) and Pakistan arguing for such language while, on the other hand, the US was unwilling to accept a direct reference to Israel or its actions. (For more information, see our 9 August What’s in Blue story.)

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UN DOCUMENTS ON UNDOF
Security Council Resolutions
30 June 2025S/RES/2782 This resolution renewed the mandate of UNDOF for six months until 31 December 2025.
31 May 1974S/RES/350 This resolution established UNDOF.
Secretary-General’s Report
12 March 2025S/2025/154 This was the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on UNDOF, covering the period 19 November 2024 to 18 February 2025.
Security Council Meeting Record
17 January 2025S/PV.9840 This was a Security Council meeting on UNIFIL and UNDOF.

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