Somalia
Expected Council Action
In October, the Security Council is expected to hold a private meeting to discuss the situation in Somalia. Special Representative for Somalia and Head of the UN Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) James Swan is expected to brief.
The African Union (AU) is expected to update the Council on the implementation of the AU Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) mandate in accordance with resolution 2767 of 27 December 2024.
In addition, the Chair of the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Eloy Alfaro de Alba (Panama), is expected to brief on the work of the committee.
In resolution 2753 of 30 October 2024, the Council expressed its intention to review the progress of UNTMIS’ transition by 31 October.
Key Recent Developments
Since launching an offensive earlier this year, Al-Shabaab (a terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaida) has gained ground in the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions and parts of the Hiiraan region, reversing much of the progress made during the offensive led by Somali forces in 2022-23. (For background, see the brief on Somalia in our April 2025 Monthly Forecast.)
In July, Al-Shabaab attacked the towns of Sabiid and Anole, in the Lower Shabelle region, following a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack on a convoy of Ugandan troops serving with AUSSOM. Media reports indicated that the attack resulted in the deaths of around 20 Ugandan soldiers. (A similar attack in the same area in June had reportedly killed close to a dozen Ugandan troops.) AUSSOM released a press statement noting that, together with Somali forces, it had repelled the attack on forward operating bases in the area, resulting in several militants being killed. Earlier, in June, AUSSOM and Somali forces had launched a joint operation in Lower Shabelle, codenamed ‘Operation Silent Storm’, to reassert control over Sabiid and Anole and secure supply routes southwest of Mogadishu.
In July, Al-Shabaab militants captured two towns—Moqokori and Tardo—in Hirshabelle state. Later that month, Al-Shabaab militants took control of the town of Mahaas in Hiiraan, a key government outpost and an important hub in operations against the group in central Somalia. Recent reports suggest that in September, Al-Shabaab had expanded its presence in and around Harardhere in the Mudug region, a strategically important coastal town with a port and road connections leading southwest to El Dheere and northeast to Puntland.
The Somali National Army has carried out multiple retaliatory operations against Al-Shabaab, aimed at repelling the militants, degrading their capabilities, and reclaiming strategic areas. These efforts have been supported by AUSSOM troops, local clan militias, and international security partners. On 1 August, AUSSOM, in coordination with Somali forces, launched an operation to recapture Bariire town in Lower Shabelle. Following a week-long ground offensive targeting militant positions, the forces regained control of the town, with more than 100 militants killed.
Since the beginning of this year, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) airstrikes targeting Al-Shabaab militants have increased significantly. Alongside these operations in central and southern Somalia, AFRICOM has also targeted Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) elements in Puntland state.
Meanwhile, there have been several notable developments in the Somali political landscape amid ongoing tensions between the federal government and the federal member states of Puntland and Jubaland, which have expressed concerns that the federal government is consolidating power and putting at risk the country’s fragile political environment. In May, several key opposition figures and political leaders established a coalition, known as the ‘Somali Salvation Forum’ (SSF), led by former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed. The Forum has positioned itself as a platform to push for reforms in response to mounting concerns over governance, security, and tensions in federal government-member state relations. After several rounds of talks without a breakthrough on constitutional reforms and upcoming elections, differences over the electoral framework and constitutional amendments led to the formation of a splinter faction.
On 25 August, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and the splinter faction of the SSF signed an electoral framework agreement, committing both sides to advancing the transition to universal suffrage (one person, one vote) elections for local councils, state assemblies, and both houses of the federal parliament. The signing of the agreement was welcomed by the AU and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.
From 16 to 19 June, a ‘National Consultative Forum’ was convened in Mogadishu by President Mohamud, which brought together several federal and state leaders, political parties, religious scholars, and civil society representatives. The discussions centred on key national issues, including counter-terrorism, constitutional reform, elections, and federal government–member state cooperation. However, several key opposition actors, including leaders from Puntland, Jubaland, and the Somali Salvation Forum, did not participate, underscoring the continued strains in Somalia’s domestic politics.
On 30 July, a regional conference in Las Anod, the capital of the Sool region, declared the formation of the ‘North East State’ (NES), formally replacing the interim Sool, Sanaag, and Cayn (SSC)-Khaatumo administration and establishing a permanent administration affiliated with the federal government. (The SSC-Khaatumo administration was formed amid the 2023 Las Anod conflict and formally acknowledged by Somalia’s federal government in October that year.) Subsequently, the federal government recognised NES as a federal member state. This development heightened tensions with Puntland and Somaliland, which hold overlapping claims to the territory comprising NES. Media reports indicated clashes between Puntland forces and local clan fighters in contested areas.
The AU was scheduled to complete the realignment of its troops from the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to AUSSOM by 30 June, ahead of the planned launch of the mission’s second phase on 1 July. (The first phase focused on the redeployment of troops and the transfer of locations to Somali security forces, while the second phase is expected to concentrate on securing the mission’s positions, supporting offensive operations, and sustaining activities.) However, in a 4 July communiqué, the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) decided that all AUSSOM forces currently deployed in the mission area, including those initially expected to withdraw by 30 June, would remain eligible for logistical support from UNSOS for up to six months, pending the full deployment of all AUSSOM troop-contributing countries (TCCs). Burundian forces, which had been scheduled for repatriation, appear to have been temporarily incorporated under AUSSOM because of this decision. Reports suggest that the Egyptian army has completed its assessment for deploying troops to Somalia, potentially under AUSSOM as well as through a separate bilateral arrangement with the Somali government.
Key Issues and Options
One of the key issues for Council members in October is the future of UNTMIS. In resolution 2753, which most recently renewed the mission’s mandate, the Council decided that UNTMIS deliver the first phase of its anticipated two-phased transition by 31 October, with the mission expected to complete its transition by 31 October 2026.
A related issue for Council members is how to continue supporting the Somali government in achieving its national priorities, including the constitutional review and electoral processes. Additionally, addressing the ongoing tension between the federal government and some federal member states is a matter of concern for Council members
In October, Council members are likely to take into consideration the progress in UNTMIS’ transition, outlined in the Secretary-General’s 30 September report, in order to determine timelines for the handover of UNTMIS’ remaining tasks under the second phase of the transition. One option could be to request the Secretary-General to brief on the situation in the country and progress in implementing the transition plan and to present options for continued UN support beyond UNTMIS, as part of the first briefing in the reporting cycle.
The persistent insecurity in Somalia remains a critical issue for Council members. Despite efforts by Somali forces and partners, which have carried out offensive operations across multiple fronts, Al-Shabaab remains a potent force posing serious security threats to Somalia and the region. The group has been able to exploit internal divisions, including clan rivalries, societal tensions, and political tensions, to expand its influence and sustain its operations. In addition, the presence and activities of ISIS/Da’esh elements in Puntland remain a major security concern.
Against the backdrop of UNTMIS’ transition, ongoing financial constraints facing the UN, and organisational reforms under the UN80 initiative, Council members face the key question of how to streamline the UN’s operations and presence in Somalia while responding more coherently and effectively to the country’s political and security situation.
One option for Council members would be to address the broader situation in Somalia, including the financing of AUSSOM, during the annual UN-AU consultations scheduled to take place in Addis Ababa in October.
Council Dynamics
Council members support the Somali federal government’s priorities and recognise the many challenges the country faces, including the persistent insecurity caused by the terrorist activities of Al-Shabaab. They support ongoing efforts to fight the group, including the implementation of sanctions to degrade Al-Shabaab. Several Council members have underscored the need for inclusive and consultative constitutional and electoral processes, stressing that relevant stakeholders should resolve their differences through dialogue and work towards achieving a broad consensus on key national priorities.
With regard to UNTMIS’ transition, Somalia, which joined the Council as an elected member for the 2025-26 term, has already expressed its position for a two-year phased handover of responsibilities of the UN’s political mission to Somali institutions and the UN Country Team. In recent years, Somalia’s federal government has consistently stressed the importance of national ownership in political processes and has sought to demonstrate its ability to deliver on key national priorities.
During the negotiations on resolution 2753, African members, joined by China and Russia, insisted on noting that UNTMIS’ two-phase transition is designed to end by 31 October 2026. However, the US opposed including the end date for UNTMIS’ transition and requested the deletion of the phrase “two-year period”. It also apparently suggested language calling for the termination of UNTMIS’ mandate to be “informed by the conditions on the ground”, a request that was also incorporated into resolution 2753. It remains uncertain how the current US administration under President Donald Trump will approach the renewal of UNTMIS’ mandate, particularly in light of the US scaling down its financial contributions to UN-led operations. (For more information, see our 29 October 2024 What’s in Blue story.)
It appears that some Council members have been having informal discussions on UNTMIS’ transition and how to streamline the UN’s presence in Somalia. While it seems that initial proposals and ideas have been circulated to gauge political appetite within the Council, the key question remains Somalia’s position, which will be central to shaping the Council’s discussion on the matter.
| Security Council Resolutions | |
| 27 December 2024S/RES/2767 | This resolution endorsed the decision of the AU Peace and Security Council to replace the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) with the AU Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), beginning 1 January 2025. |
| 30 October 2024S/RES/2753 | This resolution authorised the transition of the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) to the UN Country Team (UNCT) over a two-year period, starting on 1 November. |
