October 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 September 2025
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Print
  • Share
MIDDLE EAST

Lebanon

Expected Council Action

In October, Security Council members are expected to receive their semi-annual briefing in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1559. Adopted in 2004, the resolution called for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Lebanon, the disarmament of all militias, and the extension of government control over the whole Lebanese territory. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is the anticipated briefer.

Key Recent Developments

The 26 November 2024 cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon has continued to hold despite violations. Broadly based on the framework established by resolution 1701, the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement, which was brokered by the US and France, stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would withdraw south of the Blue Line and, in parallel, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would deploy to positions south of the Litani River. (The Blue Line is a withdrawal line set by the UN in 2000 to confirm Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon. While not an international border, the Blue Line acts in practice as a boundary between Lebanon and Israel in the absence of an agreed-upon border between the two states.)

The cessation-of-hostilities arrangement established that Israel would not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets in the territory of Lebanon and that the Lebanese government would prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups from conducting operations against Israel. In addition, the LAF would dismantle unauthorised infrastructure and confiscate unauthorised arms, among other tasks. According to Israeli media reports, also cited by Lebanese news outlets, the US bilaterally provided additional guarantees to Israel with respect to the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement’s implementation, including recognising “Israel’s right to respond to Hezbollah threats”.

Since the arrangement, Israel has carried out near-daily airstrikes and shelling in Lebanese territory—particularly in southern Lebanon—saying that it was targeting members of Hezbollah and its facilities. These include the 21 September drone strike that killed five people, including three children, in southern Lebanon, and the 18 September airstrikes that caused peacekeepers of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to move to shelters for safety. The most recent report of rocket launches from Lebanon towards Israel occurred in March.

According to the latest report of the Secretary-General on the implementation of resolution 1701, which was issued on 11 July, and covers the period from 21 February to 20 June, at least 79 Lebanese civilians have been killed by Israeli military operations since the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement came into effect. There were no reported Israeli casualties during the period covered by the Secretary-General’s report.

In mid-February, Israel withdrew from most of southern Lebanon but has since occupied five positions and two “buffer zones” in Lebanese territory near the Blue Line, with the IDF reportedly saying that it will remain there “until Israel is certain that Hezbollah will not return to the area south of the Litani River”.

With the support of UNIFIL, the LAF has gradually redeployed throughout southern Lebanon. UNIFIL has continued to detect unauthorised weapons and ammunition caches in its area of operations and face incidents of aggressive behaviour by groups of residents in southern Lebanon, a region where Hezbollah has historically maintained significant influence. UNIFIL has also continued to observe IDF military activities in the mission’s area of operation, as well as incidents in which the IDF interfered with UNIFIL operations and put peacekeepers at risk, such as by dropping grenades close to peacekeepers working to clear roadblocks.

In a significant development marking a shift from past mandate renewals, on 28 August, the Security Council adopted resolution 2790 extending UNIFIL’s mandate for a final time until 31 December 2026 and directing the mission to begin an orderly drawdown and full withdrawal from that date “and within one year”. UNIFIL’s liquidation will begin after the end of the drawdown and withdrawal phase. The resolution establishes several functions that UNIFIL is authorised to fulfil during the drawdown and withdrawal period, such as the provision of security for UN personnel, facilities, convoys, and equipment and associated personnel; the maintenance of situational awareness near UNIFIL locations; and contributing to the protection of civilians.

The resolution requests the UN Secretary-General to explore, by 1 June 2026, “options for the future of the implementation of resolution 1701” following the withdrawal of UNIFIL, including regarding “assistance in respect of security and monitoring of the Blue Line and the ways to enhance the support to the LAF redeployment” south of the Litani River through the UN’s “tools”. It also urges the international community to intensify its support, “including equipment, material and finance” to the LAF in order to ensure their effective and sustainable deployment and enhance their capacities to implement resolution 1701. (For more information, see our 28 August What’s in Blue story.)

On 5 September, the Lebanese cabinet welcomed a plan formulated by the LAF that lays out phased stages for the state to achieve the monopoly of arms across the country, an indirect reference to the process of disarmament of non-state groups in Lebanon, including Hezbollah. Although the plan has not been made public, according to media reports, the LAF will initially continue to focus on the area south of the Litani River. It will then concentrate on the region between the Litani and the Awali River, followed by Beirut and its surrounding areas, the Bekaa region, and finally the entirety of  Lebanese territory. The plan also reportedly notes the need for the LAF to be adequately resourced, the “cessation of Israeli aggressions”, and Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory as essential conditions for the full deployment of the army throughout Lebanon.

While the cabinet welcomed the LAF’s plan, it gave no clear timetable for its implementation, except for the plan’s first phase which, according to 9 September remarks by Lebanese Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants Youssef Rajji, is expected to be completed in three months.

Five Shi’a ministers, including two from Hezbollah, walked out of the 5 September cabinet meeting in protest. Hezbollah representatives have stated several times that the group will not disarm, arguing that Israeli strikes and occupied positions must be addressed first.

In a 6 September statement, France welcomed the cabinet’s endorsement of the LAF’s plan as “a new positive step” in line with previous decisions by the Lebanese authorities. On 10 September, the US approved a Presidential Drawdown Authority package for Lebanon, the value of which it estimates at $14.2 million, to build the LAF’s capability “to dismantle weapons caches and military infrastructure of non-state groups”, including Hezbollah.

Key Issues and Options

Supporting the full implementation of resolutions 1559 and 1701, as well as of the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon, remain key priorities for the Security Council. Capitalising on what appears to be a narrow window for a peaceful transition in Lebanon, while avoiding destabilisation risks, is a key issue for the Council, the country and the broader region.

Council members could issue a press statement that:

  • welcomes the 5 September endorsement by the Lebanese cabinet of the LAF’s plan and encourages its timely completion towards the extension of the control of the government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory;
  • calls on all parties to refrain from actions that could undermine the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement;
  • urges Israel to stop air and drone strikes on Lebanese territory and to withdraw from the positions it occupies north of the Blue Line;
  • calls on the LAF, with UNIFIL’s support, to deploy to these positions;
  • calls on all parties to comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law, including regarding the protection of civilians.
Council Dynamics

Council members agree that the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon needs to hold. Most Council members continue to recognise the importance of UNIFIL’s stabilising role in southern Lebanon.

Despite the eventual unanimous adoption of resolution 2790, the negotiation process highlighted sharp divisions among Council members. The US signalled its readiness to veto the mandate renewal if it did not contain a clear date for the end of the mission, while the other 14 members—none of whom had approached the negotiations seeking the termination of UNIFIL—argued in favour of prioritising conditions on the ground rather than a specific end date for the mission. The result was a compromise that tempered US insistence on a set date for the mission’s exit, with a final, longer-than-usual renewal (16 months) reflecting the other members’ concern that an accelerated end of the mission could have undermined the process of Lebanon achieving full control over its territory.

Differences persist in Security Council members’ views of Hezbollah. Some members distinguish between Hezbollah’s political and military wings and have designated only its military wing as a terrorist organisation; other members, including the UK and the US, have listed Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist organisation. On the other hand, Russia sees Hezbollah as a legitimate sociopolitical force in Lebanon.

France is the penholder on Lebanon.

Sign up for SCR emails
UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON

Security Council Resolutions
28 August 2025S/RES/2790 This resolution extended the mandate of UNIFIL for a final time until 31 December 2026 and established several functions that UNIFIL is authorised to fulfil during the drawdown and withdrawal period. It also requested the UN Secretary-General to explore, by 1 June 2026, “options for the future of the implementation of resolution 1701” following the withdrawal of UNIFIL.
11 August 2006S/RES/1701 This resolution called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. It also expanded UNIFIL’s mandate.
2 September 2004S/RES/1559 This resolution urged withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon, disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory and free and fair presidential elections.
Secretary-General’s Report
11 July 2025S/2025/460 This was the most recent Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701.

Subscribe to receive SCR publications