September 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 29 August 2025
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Status Update since our August Forecast

Ukraine

On 1 August, the Security Council held an open briefing on Ukraine (S/PV.9971). The meeting was requested by Ukraine in a 31 July letter following large-scale Russian aerial attacks on Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine on that day. Council members Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, and the UK supported the meeting request. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča briefed. Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, while Daniel Beck, Chargé d’affaires a.i. of the Delegation of the EU to the UN, participated under rule 39.

On 5 August, Russia convened an Arria-formula meeting titled “The Armed Forces of Ukraine Military Debacle in the Kursk Region: Preliminary Assessment”. Maxim Grigoriev, a member of the Russian Civic Chamber and Chairman of the International Public Tribunal on Ukraine, which was established by the Russian Civic Chamber in March 2022, and local residents from Russia’s Kursk region briefed.

On 29 August, the Security Council held an emergency open briefing on Ukraine (S/PV.9990). Ukraine requested the meeting in a 28 August letter following large-scale Russian aerial attacks conducted overnight on Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine. Council members Denmark, France, Greece, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Slovenia, and the UK supported the meeting request. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča briefed. Ukraine and several regional states participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, while the European Union (EU) participated under rule 39.

Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

On 5 August, the Security Council held an urgent briefing under the agenda item “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (MEPQ) (S/PV.9972). Israel requested the meeting in a letter dated 2 August to discuss the situation of the hostages held in Gaza. The request was supported by France, the UK, and the US. The briefers were Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča and Eli David, brother of hostage Evyatar David. Argentina, Israel, and the Observer State of Palestine to the UN participated in the meeting.

On 10 August, the Security Council held an urgent briefing under the agenda item “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question” (MEPQ) (S/PV.9975). The Council’s European members—Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, and the UK—requested the meeting after Israel’s security cabinet approved a plan on 7 August for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to take control of Gaza City. The meeting request was supported by all other Council members except the US. The briefers were Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča and Head of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Geneva and Director of the Coordination Division Ramesh Rajasingham. Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Senegal, and the Observer State of Palestine to the UN participated in the meeting.

On 21 August, Security Council members discussed recent developments in Gaza under “any other business” (AOB) following closed consultations on Syria. Members convened at Algeria’s request to discuss Israel’s planned takeover of Gaza City and its humanitarian consequences.

On 27 August, the Security Council held its regular monthly open briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (MEPQ) (S/PV.9987). The briefers were Deputy Special Coordinator and Resident Coordinator at the Office of the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process (UNSCO) Ramiz Alakbarov, Joyce Msuya, UN Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Save the Children Chief Executive Officer Inger Ashing, and Ilana Gritzewsky, an Israeli hostage who had been held captive by Hamas in Gaza. Israel and the Observer State of Palestine to the UN participated in the meeting. Closed consultations followed the open briefing.

Non-Proliferation (1540 Committee)

On 6 August, Council members convened for a briefing on the activities of the 1540 Committee (S/PV.9973). Ambassador Eloy Alfaro de Alba (Panama) briefed the Council in his capacity as chair of the 1540 Committee. At the briefing, he discussed the latest developments since the Committee Chair’s previous report to the Council.

West Africa and the Sahel

On 7 August, the Security Council held a briefing, followed by consultations, on West Africa and the Sahel (S/PV.9974). The briefers included: Special Representative and Head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) Leonardo Santos Simão, UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous, and Executive Director of the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding Levinia Addae-Mensah. Closed consultations followed the open briefing.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

On 7 August, Council members held closed consultations on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Russia requested the meeting to discuss the 1 August appeals court verdict revoking the mandate of President Milorad Dodik of Republika Srpska. There was no briefer.

Moldova

On 7 August, following the BiH consultations, Council members discussed Moldova under “any other business”. Russia requested the meeting following the 5 August sentencing of Evghenia Guțul, leader of Moldova’s Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia, to seven years on charges of illegal party financing. There was no briefer.

Maritime Security

On 11 August, the Security Council held a high-level open debate titled “Maritime Security: Prevention, Innovation, and International Cooperation to Address Emerging Challenges” under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9977 and Resumption I). Panama, the Council president in August, convened the debate as one of its signature events. Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino chaired the meeting. The briefers included: the Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Arsenio Domínguez; the Secretary-General of the International Criminal Police Organization (INTERPOL), Valdecy Urquiza; and the Chief Executive Officer of the Panama Canal Authority, Ricaurte Vásquez Morales.

South Sudan

On 18 August, the Security Council held an open briefing on the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) (S/PV.9980). Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report, dated 7 August, which covered developments from 1 April to 15 July (S/2025/504). Additional briefers included: Major General (Retired) George Aggrey Owinow, the Interim Chairperson of the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC)—a body established to oversee implementation of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS)—and Murithi Mutiga, Programme Director for Africa at International Crisis Group. Closed consultations followed the open briefing.

Prior to the meeting, Council members that are supporters of the joint pledges related to climate, peace and security—Denmark, France, Greece, Guyana, Panama, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Sierra Leone, Slovenia, and the UK—held a stake-in focused on the security implications of climate change in South Sudan.

Lebanon

On 18 August, Council members received a briefing in closed consultations on the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations (DPPA-DPO) Mohamed Khaled Khiari briefed.

On 28 August, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2790, extending the mandate of UNIFIL for a final time until 31 December 2026. The resolution calls on the mission “to start an orderly and safe drawdown and withdrawal from 31 December 2026 and within one year”.

Women, Peace and Security

On 19 August, the Security Council convened for its annual open debate on conflict-related sexual violence (S/PV.9981). The briefers were Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict Pramila Patten, and Ikhlass Ahmed, the founder and coordinator of the civil society organisation Darfur Advocacy Group.

Georgia

On 18 August, following the closed consultations on South Sudan, Council members discussed the situation in Georgia under “any other business”. The Council’s European members—Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia, and the UK—requested the meeting to mark the 17th anniversary of the 2008 Russia-Georgia war. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča briefed.

Counter-terrorism

On 20 August, the Security Council convened for a briefing on the Secretary-General’s 21st biannual strategic-level report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) (S/PV.9982). The briefers were Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism and Head of the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT) Vladimir Voronkov, Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) Natalia Gherman, and Financial Action Task Force (FATF) President Elisa de Anda Madrazo.

Libya

On 21 August, Special Representative and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Hanna Serwaa Tetteh briefed the Council (S/PV.9984) on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country and the Secretary-General’s latest report on UNSMIL (S/2025/509). Ambassador Mohamed Rabi Yusuf (Somalia), Chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, briefed on the work of the Committee.

DPRK (North Korea)

On 25 August, Ambassador Ioannis Stamatekos, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Greece, briefed Council members in consultations on the work of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee.

The Nord Stream Incident

On 26 August, the Security Council convened for a briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item (S/PV.9986). Russia requested the meeting to discuss recent developments in the investigation into the 26 September 2022 explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča briefed.

Iran

On 29 August, Security Council members held closed consultations on Iran. The session was requested by France and the UK after the two countries—along with Germany—circulated a letter on 28 August notifying the Council that they believe Iran is in “significant non-performance” of its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme, thereby triggering the “snapback” mechanism to re-impose UN sanctions against the country (S/2025/538). There was no briefer at the meeting.

 

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