September 2025 Monthly Forecast

ASIA

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action

In September, the Security Council will convene for its quarterly open briefing on Afghanistan. Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Roza Otunbayeva and a representative of civil society are expected to brief. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk may also brief. Otunbayeva’s briefing will be her last to the Council before she finishes her term in September. Closed consultations are scheduled to follow the open briefing.

UNAMA’s mandate expires on 17 March 2026.

Key Recent Developments

Afghanistan continues to face one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. According to figures published by OCHA, 22.9 million Afghans, more than half of the country’s population, are expected to require humanitarian assistance this year. Food insecurity levels are especially high, with an estimated 12.6 million Afghans experiencing crisis or emergency levels of acute food insecurity between March and April 2025.

Despite the magnitude of the crisis, the humanitarian response in Afghanistan is critically underfunded, particularly following the US’ 4 April decision to suspend aid to the country. This shortfall is having a significant impact on the work of humanitarian actors. OCHA’s latest update says that funding cuts have led to a reduction in goods and services across several different sectors, including healthcare and food assistance, and also notes that humanitarian needs across Afghanistan will increase without renewed commitments from the international community. In remarks published by Radio Free Europe in mid-August, World Food Programme (WFP) Representative and Country Director for Afghanistan John Aylieff said that “hundreds of thousands of people” have already been turned away from nutrition centres and warned that food assistance may stop “almost completely” by October.

On 13 August, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction issued a report on aid diversion in Afghanistan. Among other matters, the report found that the Taliban “use every means at their disposal, including force” to ensure that aid goes where they want it to rather than where donors intend.

Efforts to provide humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan have also been complicated by the ongoing expulsion of Afghans from neighbouring countries. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), over 1.5 million Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan in 2025 after both states launched separate campaigns targeting undocumented Afghan nationals. In a 15 July statement, UNAMA noted that the “pace and scale of returns are overwhelming already fragile support systems” and called for immediate international support for relief efforts. On 24 July, UNAMA published a report on the human rights risks faced by persons involuntarily returned to Afghanistan. Among other matters, the report concluded that members of groups that have been involuntarily returned are “at risk of persecution, torture, or other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment or other irreparable harm, in violation of the principle of non-refoulement”.

On 18 July, another group of independent human rights experts appointed by the Human Rights Council condemned the mass returns of Afghan nationals from Iran and Pakistan, stressing that Afghanistan is unsafe for returnees. In a subsequent press briefing note, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk underscored that the surge in the number of Afghans involuntarily returned to Afghanistan is creating a multidimensional human rights crisis. Türk also called for an immediate halt to the forcible return of all Afghan refugees and asylum-seekers, particularly those at risk of persecution upon return.

The broader human rights situation in Afghanistan remains dire, particularly for women and girls. In a 21 July post on X, UNAMA expressed concern regarding the arrest of “numerous women and girls in Kabul” for “alleged non-compliance with the de facto authorities’ hijab instructions” and urged the Taliban to reverse its policies and practices that restrict the human rights and fundamental freedoms of women and girls. UNAMA’s latest report on the human rights situation in Afghanistan, which was published on 10 August and covers the period spanning April to June, highlights specific examples of human rights violations perpetrated by the Taliban, including violations of the rights to work, freedom of expression, and education, as well as instances of gender-based violence against women and girls. The report also notes that dozens of Afghan women working for the UN received explicit death threats from unidentified individuals in May.

On 8 July, the Pre-Trial Chamber of the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Taliban Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and the Chief Justice of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, Abdul Hakim Haqqani, having found that there is reason to believe that the pair have committed the crime against humanity of persecution on gender and political grounds.

On 11 August, UN Women issued a statement marking the fourth anniversary of the Taliban’s seizure of power in August 2021. The statement notes that women are close to being erased from public life in Afghanistan and highlights some of the specific effects of the Taliban’s policies and practices on women and girls. It also refers to the findings of UN Women’s 2024 Afghanistan Gender Index, which concluded that Afghan women currently face the second-widest gender gap in the world.

Meanwhile, the Taliban has continued to seek closer ties with the international community. On 3 July, Russia accepted the credentials of the Taliban’s ambassador to Moscow and became the first state to formally recognise the Taliban government in Afghanistan. On 20 August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi held a trilateral meeting in Kabul, where the trio reportedly committed to pursuing stronger counter-terrorism cooperation, boosting economic ties, and reaffirmed a previous agreement to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to Afghanistan, among other matters.

Clashes between Pakistani security forces and armed groups operating in Afghanistan have persisted in recent months. On 8 August, the Pakistani military announced that it had killed 33 militants attempting to cross from Afghanistan into Balochistan province in southwestern Pakistan. A similar incident took place in early July, when Pakistan’s military announced that it had killed 30 militants trying to enter Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in northwestern Pakistan. On 12 August, the Pakistani military launched an operation in the Bajaur district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, a former stronghold of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

On 27 June, the General Assembly adopted a resolution on the situation in Afghanistan, with 116 votes in favour, two votes against (Israel and the US), and 12 abstentions (Belarus, Cameroon, China, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Ethiopia, India, Iran, Mali, Mozambique, Namibia, Russia, and Zimbabwe). The resolution was the first adopted by the General Assembly on the situation in Afghanistan since resolution 77/10 was adopted in November 2022.

At the time of writing, UNAMA, the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA), and the participants in the Doha process are working on the roadmap for political engagement referred to in the report of the Afghanistan independent assessment requested by resolution 2679. Among other matters, the independent assessment outlined an “architecture for engagement” to guide political, humanitarian, and development activities in Afghanistan. (For background on the independent assessment and the Doha process, see our  27 November 20238 December 202328 December 2023, 25 February 2024, and 7 March 2025  What’s in Blue stories and our June 2024 and September 2024 Monthly Forecasts.) The working groups on counter-narcotics and the private sector, established as part of the Doha process, held meetings on 30 June and 1 July, respectively.

Human Rights-Related Developments

In a 14 August press release, a group of independent human rights experts appointed by the Human Rights Council called on the international community to reject the Taliban’s authoritarian rule and resist efforts towards normalising the de facto authorities’ regime.

On 16 June, the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan Richard Bennett presented a report to the Human Rights Council. Drawing from a series of meetings and interviews with more than 110 Afghans, the report examines women and girls’ access to justice and protection and assesses the impact of the Taliban’s gender practices and policies. Among other matters, the report finds the Taliban have weaponised Afghanistan’s legal and justice sectors to oppress women and girls and LGBTQ+ persons. It also urges the de facto authorities to fulfil their responsibilities under international human rights treaties ratified by Afghanistan, including by reversing policies and practices that violate these obligations.

In late June, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women reviewed Afghanistan’s compliance with its international human rights obligations. The Taliban did not take part in the review. In concluding observations issued on 10 July, the Committee urged the Taliban to revoke its decrees that restrict women and girls’ access to education, employment, freedom of movement and participation in public and political life, among other matters.

Sanctions-Related Developments

On 15 August, the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee held informal consultations to discuss recent requests for exemptions to the travel ban imposed by the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions regime. Prior to the consultations, the US blocked a travel ban exemption request that was submitted by Pakistan. In correspondence to the Committee regarding its decision, the US apparently indicated that it would scrutinise future travel ban exemption requests more closely, on a case-by-case basis. In 2024, the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions committee received 25 requests for travel ban exemptions, all of which were approved.

Key Issues and Options

The Taliban’s ongoing refusal to comply with many of Afghanistan’s international obligations, particularly those relating to the rights of women and girls set out in international human rights treaties, is a major issue for the Council and directly contradicts the recommendations of the Afghanistan independent assessment.

Council members could ask for an informal meeting with representatives of DPPA and UNAMA to discuss steps the Council could take in response to the Taliban’s actions. Members, especially those that are not part of the Doha process, could use this meeting to ask for an update on the roadmap for political engagement, next steps in the Doha process, and the activities of the working groups on counter-narcotics and the private sector.

Council members could also hold an informal meeting with representatives of UN Women, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, and the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan to discuss options for exerting pressure on the Taliban regarding their practices and policies that violate human rights and avoiding the normalisation of those policies.

Council members may wish to review the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions regime, which, apart from the humanitarian exception established by resolution 2615 in December 2021, has not been updated in the four years since the Taliban seized power. Such a review could analyse whether the regime is fit for purpose and consider options for updating it in light of current circumstances.

The humanitarian crisis is another major issue. During the June open briefing, Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya called for strengthening the implementation of resolution 2615, increased investments in agriculture, health systems, and other vital services, and increased funding for humanitarian work. Council members could hold an informal meeting with humanitarian actors to discuss possible steps that the Council could take in this regard.

The threat of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan remains an issue. The latest report of the Secretary-General on the threat posed by ISIL/Da’esh notes that ISIL-Khorasan, ISIL’s Afghan affiliate, represents the most serious threat regionally and internationally. Council members could hold an informal meeting with a counter-terrorism expert, which would give them a chance to discuss options for bolstering the Council’s efforts to manage this threat.

Council Dynamics

While Council members are generally united in their desire to see a prosperous, peaceful Afghanistan free from terrorism, ruled by an inclusive government, and in compliance with its international obligations, they are divided over how to achieve this goal. Some members, including the P3 (France, the UK, and the US) and other like-minded states, have previously argued that the Taliban must adhere to international norms in order to obtain international recognition and receive economic and development aid from the international community. Several of these members prefer maintaining pressure on the Taliban, particularly regarding its policies and practices that violate the rights of women and girls.

The US appears to be changing its position, however. During the June open briefing, the US representative indicated that its Afghanistan policy is currently under review and said that its focus has narrowed, noting that protecting US citizens, mitigating the terrorist threat, and securing the release of US hostages are its top priorities. The US’ recent decision to block a request for an exemption to the travel ban imposed by the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions regime may be linked to this shift.

China and Russia, for their part, have contended that the international community should provide economic and development assistance to Afghanistan without linking it to other issues, such as the rights of women and girls, and favour engagement and dialogue without increased pressure. Both members have repeatedly called for the release of frozen assets belonging to Afghanistan’s central bank, the bulk of which were seized by the US after the Taliban seized power in August 2021 and have also pushed for the reinstatement of the standing exemption to the travel ban that expired in August 2022. Pakistan has expressed similar views since joining the Council this year.

Council members have not been able to agree on the penholdership on the Afghanistan file since Japan, which held the pen with the United Arab Emirates in 2023, and on its own in 2024, ended its two-year Council term in December 2024. Two pairs of Council members have indicated that they are willing to work together as co-penholders: China and Pakistan on the one hand, and the Republic of Korea and the US on the other. (For more information, see our 15 March What’s in Blue story.) At the time of writing, members have not been able to resolve the dispute regarding penholdership.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN
Security Council Resolutions
17 March 2025S/RES/2777 This extended UNAMA’s mandate until 17 March 2026.

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