August 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 July 2025
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MIDDLE EAST

Lebanon

Expected Council Action

In August, the Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) ahead of its 31 August expiry. Additionally, on 18 August, Council members are expected to hold closed consultations on UNIFIL. Mohamed Khaled Khiari, the Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific, is the anticipated briefer.

Key Recent Developments

The 26 November 2024 cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon has continued to hold despite violations. Broadly based on the framework established by resolution 1701, the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement, which was brokered by the US and France, stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would withdraw south of the Blue Line and, in parallel, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would deploy to positions south of the Litani River. (The Blue Line is a withdrawal line set by the UN in 2000 to confirm Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon. While not an international border, the Blue Line acts in practice as a boundary between Lebanon and Israel in the absence of an agreed-upon border between the two states.)

The cessation-of-hostilities arrangement established that Israel would not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets in the territory of Lebanon and that the Lebanese government would prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups from conducting operations against Israel. In addition, the LAF would dismantle unauthorised infrastructure and confiscate unauthorised arms, among other tasks. According to Israeli media reports, also cited by Lebanese news outlets, the US bilaterally provided additional guarantees to Israel with respect to the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement’s implementation, including recognising “Israel’s right to respond to Hezbollah threats”.

Since the arrangement, Israel has carried out near-daily airstrikes and shelling in Lebanese territory—particularly in southern Lebanon—saying that it was targeting members of Hezbollah and weapons depots. According to the latest report of the Secretary-General on the implementation of resolution 1701, which was issued on 11 July, and covers the period from 21 February to 20 June, at least 79 Lebanese civilians have been killed by Israeli military operations since the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement came into effect. The most recent report of rocket launches from Lebanon towards Israel occurred in March. There were no reported Israeli casualties during the period covered by the Secretary-General’s report.

With UNIFIL’s support, the LAF has gradually redeployed throughout southern Lebanon. According to the Secretary-General’s report, as at  20 June, 7,522 LAF personnel had been deployed to 116 positions south of the Litani River. UNIFIL also detected numerous unauthorised weapons and ammunition caches in its area of operations and discovered 67 tunnels or underground structures. In his report, the Secretary-General recognised that the LAF “made progress” on this front, noting that the reporting period was denoted by “the concerted effort of the Lebanese authorities” to extend the state’s authority throughout Lebanon. Nevertheless, he stressed the importance of the LAF continuing to take “the measures necessary” towards achieving a state monopoly over the possession of weapons in Lebanon.

In mid-February, Israel withdrew from most of southern Lebanon but has since occupied five positions and two “buffer zones” in Lebanese territory near the Blue Line, with the IDF reportedly saying that it will remain there “until Israel is certain that Hezbollah will not return to the area south of the Litani River”. According to the Secretary-General’s report, UNIFIL observed IDF personnel outside those positions on at least 98 occasions. It also noted the IDF’s continuing occupation of northern Ghajar, a village which straddles the Blue Line, and its “adjacent area” north of the Blue Line. The Secretary-General stressed that the continued presence of, and use of force by, the IDF in Lebanon threatens stability and “undermines the efforts of the Lebanese authorities to extend the authority of the State”, adding that it “risks fuelling a narrative that could further complicate” Lebanese discussions on establishing a monopoly on arms, a reference to ongoing talks about disarming non-state groups.

UNIFIL experienced several incidents of aggressive behaviour and restrictions on its freedom of movement by groups of residents in its area of operations in southern Lebanon, a region where Hezbollah has historically maintained significant influence. In particular, the Secretary-General’s report said that, since late April, UNIFIL experienced an increase in these incidents. On 16 May, for instance, UNIFIL peacekeepers returned fire “after an isolated shooter fired approximately 20 shots towards the peacekeepers as they were moving away from an angry crowd”. The report adds that UNIFIL also faced incidents involving the IDF, including the pointing of weapons and direct fire at a UN position on 13 May.

IDF presence and military activities in the mission’s area of operations, as well as incidents of aggressive behaviour and obstruction, have continued to be reported by UNIFIL after the cut-off date of the latest Secretary-General’s report. UNIFIL has continued to find unauthorised weapons caches and refer them to the LAF.

UNIFIL has also cleared unexploded ordnance, repaired roads, and facilitated numerous civilian and humanitarian movements, among other activities.

In a 27 June letter to the Secretary-General, Lebanon requested the extension of UNIFIL’s mandate for an additional year, until 31 August 2026. The letter stressed that “UNIFIL’s continued presence remains essential to maintaining security and stability in southern Lebanon” and to support the LAF in extending Lebanon’s authority within the mission’s area of operations.

In an 11 July letter, the Secretary-General recommended that the Council extend the mandate of UNIFIL until 31 August 2026.

In recent months, US Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack and Lebanese authorities—including President Joseph Aoun—have engaged in diplomatic discussions on a pathway towards Hezbollah’s disarmament in exchange for US pressure on Israel to withdraw from the five positions it has occupied in Lebanese territory and cease its military operations in Lebanon. Although initial accounts of the discussions highlighted relatively optimistic US assessments of the talks, more recent reports indicate increasing US pressure for the Lebanese cabinet to imminently adopt a commitment to disarm Hezbollah. While signalling openness to a discussion on its weapons within a Lebanese-led dialogue, Hezbollah has thus far rejected its disarmament, citing continuing Israeli attacks in Lebanese territory and the occupation of the five positions.

On 28 July, a military court in Lebanon sentenced a man to death in absentia for the killing in December 2022 of an Irish peacekeeper during an attack on a UNIFIL convoy near the town of Al-Aqbieh in southern Lebanon. The court also handed fines and lighter custodial sentences to several other people. Council members condemned the attack in a 15 December 2022 press statement, which recalled “the necessity for all parties to ensure that UNIFIL personnel are safe and secure”.

Key Issues and Options

UNIFIL’s mandate renewal is the pivotal issue for the Security Council in August.

Supporting the full implementation of the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Hezbollah also remains a key priority.

Throughout the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, UNIFIL remained in position despite repeatedly coming under fire and being urged by Israel to relocate. Following the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement, UNIFIL rapidly adjusted its posture to new realities on the ground, helping to facilitate implementation by supporting the deployment of the LAF south of the Litani River.

The Council could extend UNIFIL’s mandate for another year within the framework of resolution 1701. A one-year extension would signal continued support for UNIFIL’s stabilising role in southern Lebanon, including in the context of the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement.

In the context of the mandate renewal, members may stress the importance of the parties guaranteeing the safety and security of UNIFIL peacekeepers, as well as of ensuring that the mission enjoys freedom of movement and access to all locations of interest within its area of operations. Members could further demand that all sides refrain from attacking UN peacekeepers and premises and stop all intimidatory behaviour.

The Council may underscore the importance of the mission continuing to strengthen its strategic communication to promote understanding of its mandated functions and counter misinformation and disinformation. The Council may also retain UNIFIL’s mandate on women, peace and security, as recommended by the Secretary-General in his 11 July letter.

Members may also wish to clarify UNIFIL’s specific role within the mechanism established under the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement to monitor, verify, and assist in “ensuring enforcement” of the commitments outlined in the arrangement. (The mechanism is a reformulated version of the tripartite mechanism established following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. The revised mechanism is chaired by the US and hosted by UNIFIL. It also includes the IDF and the LAF, as well as France.)

Ensuring that UNIFIL has the resources it needs to effectively carry out its mandate is an increasingly important issue. Considering the continued volatility along the Blue Line, a reduction in the authorised force strength could risk undermining the mission’s ability to fulfil its mandate, including regarding patrolling functions.

Through a 30 June resolution, the General Assembly appropriated $552.8 million for the maintenance of UNIFIL for the period from 1 July to 30 June 2026. However, according to the Secretary-General’s 11 July letter, as at  7 July, unpaid assessed contributions to the special account for UNIFIL amounted to $136 million. Additionally, while the US Congress is yet to approve the 2026 budget, the Trump administration proposed eliminating all US funding for UN peacekeeping operations in the 2026 fiscal year.

The Secretary-General’s report says that Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert offered her good offices with relevant authorities and actors in Lebanon, Israel and the region to support the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement. Council members could consider encouraging the parties to avail themselves of Hennis-Plasschaert’s good offices. Members could also recommend the deployment of UNIFIL to the five positions currently occupied by the IDF, as proposed by France in February.

Council Dynamics

Most Council members recognise UNIFIL’s vital role for stability in Lebanon and, more broadly, in the region.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump on 24 July signed into law the “Rescissions Act of 2025” rescinding approximately $203 million of the $1.4 billion appropriated in the fiscal year 2024 and $158 million of the $1.2 billion appropriated in the fiscal year 2025 for contributions to UN peacekeeping activities. Trump’s 28 May rescission proposal to Congress cited, among other reasons, dissatisfaction with UNIFIL.

The US also voted against the 30 July General Assembly resolution, which appropriated the budget for UNIFIL. All other Council members—except Sierra Leone and Somalia, who did not vote—voted in favour of the resolution, which was adopted with a total of 147 votes in favour, three votes against, and one abstention.

Council members agree on the need for the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon to hold. Sharp differences persist in Security Council members’ views of Hezbollah, however. Some members distinguish between Hezbollah’s political and military wings and have designated only its military wing as a terrorist organisation; other members, including the UK and the US, have listed Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist organisation. On the other hand, Russia sees Hezbollah as a legitimate sociopolitical force in Lebanon.

China and Russia have opposed the Council taking positions that they perceive as overly prescriptive regarding Lebanon’s internal affairs.

France is the penholder on Lebanon.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON

 

Security Council Resolutions
28 August 2024S/RES/2749 This resolution extended the mandate of UNIFIL for another year until 31 August 2025.
11 August 2006S/RES/1701 This resolution called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. It also expanded UNIFIL’s mandate.
2 September 2004S/RES/1559 This resolution urged withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon, disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory and free and fair presidential elections.
Secretary-General’s Report
11 July 2025S/2025/460 This was the most recent Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701.

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