July 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 June 2025
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MIDDLE EAST

Yemen

Expected Council Action

In July, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg and an official from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are expected to brief on political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country.

The Council is also expected to renew the mandate of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA), which expires on 14 July, and the monthly reporting requirement on Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, originally mandated by Security Council resolution 2722, which expires on 15 July. 

Key Recent Developments

In June, strikes between the Houthi rebel group and Israel continued, as the Houthis maintained a campaign against Israel, which they say is in solidarity with the Palestinians. On 2 June, the Houthis claimed responsibility for a missile launched at Israel’s Ben Gurion airport, which was intercepted by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). On 14 June, a Houthi-launched missile reportedly hit a town in the West Bank, injuring five Palestinians, including three children. On 10 June, Israel launched renewed strikes on Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah—which they claim is being used by the Houthis to smuggle weapons—and threatened an “aerial and naval blockade” if the Houthis continue to attack Israel.

Despite a ceasefire agreed between the US and the Houthis in May, which ended months of US bombing of Houthi targets, on 22 June, the Houthis announced their willingness to “target US ships and warships in the Red Sea” in retaliation for the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites on 22 June. The US strikes were conducted in support of Israel’s military offensive on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programme earlier in June. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran went into effect on 24 June. At the time of writing, no Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have been reported since then.

Council resolution 2768 (15 January 2025) requests the Secretary-General to issue a monthly report on any new incidents involving Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. A 9 June letter from the Secretary-General to the Council said that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) indicated that no new incidents occurred during the reporting period of 10 May to 9 June. The most recent verified attack against a commercial vessel was in December 2024.

On 5 June, Security Council members issued a press statement marking one year since the Houthis arbitrarily detained dozens of personnel from the United Nations, national and international NGOs, civil society organisations and diplomatic missions. In the statement, Council members reiterated their strong condemnation of the ongoing detentions, as well as the death of a World Food Programme (WFP) staff member on 10 February while in Houthi captivity. In the statement, members also reiterated their demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all those detained, and for the Houthis to ensure safe, rapid and unimpeded humanitarian access to ensure assistance can reach civilians in need.

The Houthis’ involvement in broader regional tensions has continued to stall progress towards a roadmap for peace in Yemen. On 29 May, however, the Houthis and the internationally recognised Yemeni government agreed to reopen a vital road, which had been closed for nearly seven years, linking the Houthi-controlled city of Sana’a with the southern port city of Aden. During the 12 June Security Council meeting on Yemen, both Grundberg and Assistant Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya praised the move as a trust-building step. Msuya highlighted that it will reduce travel time and improve access to healthcare for communities in a number of governorates.

Yemen is facing severe economic and humanitarian hardship. The World Bank’s latest Yemen Economic Monitor report highlights that the country’s fragile economy has been exacerbated by the ongoing Houthi blockade on oil exports, the country’s fragmentation into two economic zones, and tensions in the Red Sea.

In her briefing to the Council on 12 June, Msuya underscored that over 17 million people—nearly half of Yemen’s population—are estimated to be “acutely hungry”, adding that malnutrition is affecting 1.3 million pregnant and breastfeeding women and 2.3 million children under the age of five. She appealed for “scaled-up, flexible funding based on needs” to sustain the UN’s aid operations. A 17 June Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) update notes that the “reduction in emergency food aid and livelihood support following donor funding cuts eliminated a vital safety net that had been preventing alarming levels of acute food insecurity” and projects that food security is expected to rapidly worsen in the coming months. 

Key Issues and Options

A key issue for the Council is how to help mitigate the risk of hostilities in Yemen and the Red Sea while advancing efforts to relaunch the stalled intra-Yemeni political process amid broader regional tensions. The relative calm in the Red Sea following the US-Houthi ceasefire represents an opportunity for Council members to support further de-escalation and to encourage the parties in Yemen to resume negotiations towards a nationwide ceasefire and a political settlement.

At the same time, the Council will need to ensure the protection and safety of navigation and shipping in the Red Sea by maintaining pressure on the Houthis to avoid resuming attacks on merchant ships and global supply chains. In this regard, a likely option for the Council is to extend for a further six months the monthly reporting requirement for the Secretary-General on attacks by the Houthis on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea.

Another likely option for the Council would be to renew the mandate of UNMHA, which includes monitoring the ceasefire in Hodeidah governorate, which the December 2018 Stockholm Agreement established, for another year. Hodeidah is a key point through which humanitarian aid is received, and, considering worsening humanitarian conditions in the country, Council members may want to ensure that UNMHA’s efforts to minimise tensions in the region are adequately prioritised.

Given the increasingly fraught humanitarian context, Council members could also consider holding a public briefing, possibly at high level, focused specifically on Yemen’s humanitarian crisis—which could include a briefing from the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) or the WFP on the country’s rapidly worsening food security—providing members the opportunity to highlight the urgent need for bolstering funding pledges.

Council Dynamics

Council members are largely aligned in support of an inclusive intra-Yemeni political process, the need to improve economic and humanitarian conditions in the country, and the need to restore freedom of navigation and security to the Red Sea. Advancing mediation efforts towards a resumption of dialogue and a peace process under UN auspices remains an overarching priority for members.

Nevertheless, Council members have divergent views on the reasons for the protracted political stalemate and insecurity in Yemen. The “A3 plus one” members, China, Pakistan, and Russia have all stressed that the situation in Yemen and the Red Sea cannot be discussed in isolation from the situation in Gaza, and some have directly blamed Israel for the current instability in the region. Russia has also heavily criticised the US military campaign against the Houthis as ineffective, claiming that it only served to degrade Yemen’s already dire humanitarian situation.

On the other hand, the P3 members (France, the UK, and the US) have accused Iran of financially and militarily supporting the Houthis, fostering further regional tensions. The US has taken a hawkish stance against Iranian support of the group, viewing it as the key facilitator of the Houthi movement—which the US has designated as a foreign terrorist organisation. The US has repeatedly called for the Security Council to respond to Iranian defiance of the Council-mandated arms embargo.

During the 12 June Council meeting, the US claimed to have evidence of Chinese companies providing the Houthis with dual-use components and satellite imagery, adding that one company is financed by Chinese authorities and is backed by “senior leadership”. In its statement, China denied the accusations and noted that the company in question “has no business connections with either Iran or the Houthis”.

Several Council members have also called for the strengthening of the United Nations Verification and Inspection Mechanism (UNVIM), which inspects ships travelling to Houthi-controlled ports to ensure compliance with the arms embargo against the group.

The UK is the penholder on Yemen. 

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UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN

Security Council Resolutions
15 January 2025S/RES/2768 This resolution extended the Secretary-General’s monthly reporting requirement on Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
8 July 2024S/RES/2742 This resolution renewed the mandate of UNMHA until 14 July 2025.
Security Council Press Statements
5 June 2025SC/16079 This was a press statement marking one year since the June 2024 wave of arbitrary detentions of UN and NGO personnel by the Houthis.
13 February 2025SC/15995 This was a press statement on Houthi Detention of United Nations, International Non-governmental Organization Workers.

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