July 2025 Monthly Forecast

ASIA

UNRCCA (Central Asia)

Expected Council Action

In July, Kaha Imnadze, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA), is expected to brief Security Council members on the UNRCCA’s work in closed consultations.

Key Recent Developments

Imnadze last briefed Council members on 6 February, in closed consultations. Among other matters, he provided an update on UNRCCA’s activities pertaining to counter-terrorism, transboundary water management, border demarcation, and the women, peace and security, and youth, peace and security agendas. The consultations likewise focused on the border negotiations between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as the situation in Afghanistan and its impact on Central Asia.

On 27 February, a group of UN human rights experts expressed concern over the introduction of new legislation restricting freedom of religion or belief in Kyrgyzstan. Signed by President Sadyr Japarov on 21 January, the new legislation includes laws “On Freedom of Religion on Religious Associations” and “On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of the Kyrgyz Republic in the Religious Sphere”, the latter of which also amends the Code of Offences. The entry of these laws into force has been criticised by both national and international human rights experts on the basis that they limit Kyrgyzstan’s space for freedom of thought, conscience, and religion, while restricting freedom of expression, assembly, and association and the exercise of cultural rights.

In Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Presidents Japarov and Emomali Rakhmon (Tajikistan) signed a border agreement on 13 March, formally resolving their long-running border dispute. Building on the momentum of this agreement, on 31 March, Japarov and Rakhmon, with the addition of Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, convened a trilateral summit in Khujand, Tajikistan. After two decades of negotiations, the three heads of state signed a treaty on the junction point of their country’s national borders.

This was complemented by the countries’ adoption of the Khujand Declaration of Eternal Friendship, the opening of a column symbolising friendship at the junction point, accompanied by the exchange of instruments of ratification by Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for their bilateral agreement. The development ushers in a new era of cooperation between the two countries following decades of conflict and division over the borders of Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan and Ferghana Valley. In a statement attributed to Stéphane Dujarric, the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General, António Guterres, “congratulated the two countries on this achievement and commended their leadership and political will to bring the negotiation process to a successful conclusion”.

Member states continue to strengthen economic, political, and security ties with Central Asia, sparking increased diplomatic competition in the region. On 21 February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had a call with Uzbekistan Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov, during which they discussed continued cooperation between the two countries, including through the C5+1 diplomatic platform, which comprises the five Central Asian states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) and the US. The two also discussed Uzbekistan’s efforts to combat terrorism and illegal migration.

During the inaugural European Union (EU)-Central Asia summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on 3-4 April, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underscored the EU’s commitment to take its partnership with Central Asia to the next level, including by “deepening trade ties and expanding cooperation in transport, critical raw materials, digital connectivity, water, and energy”.

A Russia-Central Asia summit is scheduled for October and is expected to be held on the sidelines of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan. Speaking at a press briefing on 23 April in Samarkand, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reportedly said that the meeting would be dedicated to coordinating efforts aimed at developing cooperation in multiple areas related to transportation, energy, culture, technology, among other areas.

As part of their border agreement, on 3 April, Japarov and Rakhmon officially initiated the first phase of the Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA-1000), commissioning a 500-kilovolt transmission line in Tajikistan. The project will reportedly connect their countries in transmitting surplus hydroelectricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan through Afghanistan and then Pakistan.

On 27 May, Imnadze engaged in discussions with the Secretary-General of the CIS, Sergey Lebedev, regarding ongoing collaboration between the UNRCCA and the CIS, including potential opportunities for joint efforts in promoting security and regional cooperation in Central Asia. Imnadze also met with Samat Ordabaev, the Deputy Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), to confer shared concerns pertaining to regional security, with particular attention to the evolving situation in Afghanistan.

From 16 to 18 June, Chinese President Xi Jinping travelled to Astana, Kazakhstan, to attend the second China–Central Asia Summit. The summit brought together the heads of state from all five Central Asian countries—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—in addition to Xi. During the conference, Xi reportedly pledged that China would provide Central Asian countries with 1.5 billion yuan ($208.86 million) in grant assistance this year to support their livelihood and development projects. The leaders also adopted the Astana Declaration of the Second China-Central Asia Summit and signed a treaty on eternal good-neighbourliness, friendship, and cooperation, which, among other matters, aims to foster greater collaboration across multiple domains, including trade, infrastructure, security, and cultural exchange. According to media reports, the summit furthermore announced the signing of 12 cooperation documents regarding the Belt and Road cooperation, the facilitation of people-to-people exchanges, trade, and other sectors.

Since his last briefing, Imnadze continued to promote dialogue and confidence-building among the Central Asian states and to support regional efforts aimed at preventing violent extremism and countering terrorism. On 30 April, UNRCCA—with the Government of Kazakhstan, the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT), and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)—organised a Cross-regional Dialogue on the Prosecution, Rehabilitation and Reintegration (PRR) of Returnees from Conflict Zones.

Key Issues and Options

An underlying issue facing the Council is determining how the Council can most effectively support the efforts of the UNRCCA to facilitate preventive diplomacy and regional cooperation. The Council could choose to hold an open briefing on UNRCCA, which would enable members to voice support for its work and raise awareness of its activities. This open briefing could be followed by closed consultations to allow for a more frank and detailed exchange with Imnadze. The Council could also choose to hold a debate to provide the Central Asian states an opportunity to discuss the work of the UNRCCA in public.

The situation in Afghanistan and its impact on Central Asia present another matter of concern for the Council. The Council could consider inviting a representative of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) to participate in the meeting and provide information regarding developments in the country that might affect the wider region.

Council Dynamics

Council members generally support UNRCCA and regard it as an important tool in promoting cooperation in Central Asia. Before mid-2018, Council members often issued press statements expressing support for UNRCCA and its work and encouraging increased cooperation and coordination among the Central Asian countries, the UNRCCA, and “relevant regional organisations”. However, Council members have been unable to agree on a press statement on the UNRCCA since that time, due to disagreements among the permanent members about including references to specific regional organisations, including the CIS, the CSTO, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

Press elements commending then-Special Representative and Head of the UNRCCA Natalia Gherman for her efforts and expressing support for UNRCCA’s work were read out following the UNRCCA consultations in January 2023.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON UNRCCA 

Security Council Letters
7 May 2007S/2007/279 This was a letter from the Secretary-General on the establishment of a United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy in Ashgabat.
Security Council Press Statements
25 January 2018SC/13179 This was a press statement welcoming further cooperation and coordination between UNRCCA, the Central Asian States, and relevant regional organisations, including those organisations of which the Central Asian States are members.

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