July 2025 Monthly Forecast

MIDDLE EAST

Lebanon

Expected Council Action

In July, Council members expect to receive a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701. Adopted in 2006, resolution 1701 called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. The Secretary-General’s report, which is due on 11 July, will cover the period from 21 February to 20 June. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Khaled Khiari are the anticipated briefers.

The mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August.

Key Recent Developments

Lebanon stayed out of the confrontation between Israel and Iran over Iran’s nuclear programme, during which the US intervened, striking three of Iran’s nuclear sites. While Hezbollah condemned Israel’s attacks and the US strikes in Iran, it did not engage militarily in the conflict. (For background, see our 23 June What’s in Blue story on the Security Council’s briefing on the implementation of resolution 2231.)

The 26 November 2024 cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon has continued to hold despite violations. Broadly based on the framework established by resolution 1701, the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement, which was brokered by the US and France, stated that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would withdraw south of the Blue Line and, in parallel, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would deploy to positions south of the Litani River. (The Blue Line is a withdrawal line set by the UN in 2000 to confirm Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon. While not an international border, the Blue Line acts in practice as a boundary between Lebanon and Israel in the absence of an agreed-upon border between the two states.)

The cessation-of-hostilities arrangement established that Israel will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets in the territory of Lebanon and that the Lebanese government will prevent Hezbollah and all other armed groups from conducting operations against Israel. In addition, the LAF will dismantle unauthorised infrastructure and confiscate unauthorised arms, among other tasks. According to Israeli media reports, also cited by Lebanese news outlets, the US bilaterally provided additional guarantees to Israel with respect to the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement’s implementation, including recognising “Israel’s right to respond to Hezbollah threats”.

Since the arrangement, Israel has carried out airstrikes in Lebanese territory—particularly in southern Lebanon—on numerous occasions, saying that it was targeting members of Hezbollah and weapons depots. These include the 5 June airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, which Israel said were targeting a Hezbollah drone production facility. The 5 June airstrikes marked the fourth time Israel carried out airstrikes on Beirut since the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement. The most recent reports of rocket launches from Lebanon at Israel occurred in March. (For more information, see the brief on Lebanon in our May 2025 Monthly Forecast.)

On 25 June, the mechanism established under the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement to monitor, verify, and assist in “ensuring enforcement” of the commitments outlined in the arrangement met for the first time since March. Following the 5 June airstrikes, the LAF stated that although it had offered to inspect the locations identified by the IDF as hosting a drone production facility, Israel proceeded with the airstrikes. Consequently, the LAF warned that it might suspend cooperation with the monitoring mechanism over inspections of sites. In a statement condemning the Israeli airstrikes, France called on all parties to respect the ceasefire and noted that the mechanism “is there to help the parties deal with threats and prevent any escalation that would undermine Lebanon and Israel’s security and stability”. (The mechanism is a reformulated version of the tripartite mechanism established following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. Under the terms of the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement, the revised mechanism is chaired by the US and hosted by UNIFIL. It also includes the IDF and the LAF, as well as France.)

Following the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement, UNIFIL developed an adaptation plan focused on, among other objectives, strengthening its operational posture, supporting the mechanism, securing local communities’ support, and enhancing the mission’s profile.

With UNIFIL’s support, the LAF has gradually redeployed throughout southern Lebanon. In mid-February, Israel withdrew from most of south Lebanon but has since occupied five positions and two “buffer zones” in Lebanese territory near the Blue Line, with the IDF reportedly saying that it will remain there “until Israel is certain that Hezbollah will not return to the area south of the Litani River”.

In several recent public statements, UNIFIL reported observing IDF presence in its area of operations. In a 14 May statement UNIFIL expressed concern over the IDF’s “aggressive posture” towards UNIFIL personnel and assets near the Blue Line, including an incident on 13 May in which “direct fire hit the perimeter of a UNIFIL position” marking the first time a UNIFIL position has been directly hit since the cessation of hostilities. UNIFIL has also continued to detect unexploded ordnance, weapons and ammunition caches. According to a 26 June update, UNIFIL has discovered 272 weapons caches since the cessation of hostilities. The mission has also reported several incidents of aggressive behaviour and obstruction of movement by groups of residents in its area of operations in southern Lebanon; a region where Hezbollah has historically maintained significant influence.

On 4 June, the Secretary-General announced that Major General Diodato Abagnara will take over from Lieutenant General Aroldo Lázaro Sáenz as UNIFIL head of mission and force commander. Abagnara assumed command of UNIFIL on 24 June.

In a 27 June letter to the Secretary-General, Lebanon requested the extension of UNIFIL’s mandate for an additional year, until 31 August 2026.

According to media reports, Lebanese officials are currently evaluating a proposal put forward by US Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack regarding, among other issues, Hezbollah’s disarmament and the withdrawal of Israel from the five positions it has occupied in Lebanese territory.

In the Secretary-General’s most recent annual report on children and armed conflict, dated 17 June, Lebanon was cited as one of the countries that has witnessed the sharpest increases in grave violations committed against children. (The six grave violations, as determined by the Security Council, are: child recruitment and use, killing and maiming, rape and other forms of sexual violence, attacks on schools and hospitals, abductions, and the denial of humanitarian access.) The increase in violations took place during the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah between September and November 2024. The UN verified 669 grave violations against 628 children in Lebanon in 2024, representing a 545 percent increase compared with 2023. Verified violations included the killing and maiming of children by the Israeli armed forces, mostly through the use of explosive weapons in populated areas, and the recruitment and use of boys by several armed groups, including Fatah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah. The Secretary-General in his report urged the parties to the conflict to “immediately implement measures to protect children”, noting that he will be “particularly attentive to this situation” in the preparation of his next report.

On 24 June, the World Bank approved a $250 million project for the repair and reconstruction of infrastructure damaged in Lebanon during the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as to support key services and the sustainable management of rubble in conflict-affected areas.

Key Issues and Options

Supporting the full implementation of the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Hezbollah remains the Security Council’s foremost immediate priority.

Council members could consider issuing a presidential statement that urges all parties to fully implement the arrangement and underscores the importance of protecting civilians and civilian infrastructure. While stressing the need for Israel to fully withdraw from Lebanese territory, the statement could recommend the deployment of UNIFIL to the five positions currently occupied by the IDF, as proposed by France in February. It could also emphasise the importance of the extension of the control of the government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory and welcome Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s commitment to make 2025 the year the Lebanese state achieves a monopoly over weapons. Council members could consider requesting the Office of the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon to offer its good offices in support of any intra-Lebanese dialogue process on the disarmament of all armed groups.

In July, Council members are likely to begin to direct their attention to UNIFIL’s upcoming mandate renewal negotiations and evaluate whether the current situation requires any adjustment to how UNIFIL implements its mandate.

Council Dynamics

Council members agree on the need for the cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon to hold.

Sharp differences persist in Security Council members’ views of Hezbollah. Some members distinguish between Hezbollah’s political and military wings and have designated only its military wing as a terrorist organisation; other members, including the UK and the US, have listed Hezbollah in its entirety as a terrorist organisation. On the other hand, Russia sees Hezbollah as a legitimate sociopolitical force in Lebanon.

Most Council members are supportive of UNIFIL and believe it plays a key role in Lebanon’s stability. At the same time, on 28 May US President Donald Trump proposed that Congress rescind $203 million of the $1.4 billion appropriated in the fiscal year 2024 (thus eliminating unattributed balances) and $158 million of the $1.2 billion appropriated in the fiscal year 2025 for contributions for UN peacekeeping activities citing, among other reasons, dissatisfaction with UNIFIL.

China and Russia have opposed the Council taking positions that they perceive as overly prescriptive regarding Lebanon’s internal affairs.

France is the penholder on Lebanon.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON

Security Council Resolutions
11 August 2006S/RES/1701 This resolution called for a cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. It also expanded UNIFIL’s mandate.
2 September 2004S/RES/1559 This resolution urged withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon, disarmament of all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias, extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory and free and fair presidential elections.

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