July 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 June 2025
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EUROPE

Cyprus

Expected Council Action

In July, Security Council members are expected to receive a briefing in consultations on the situation in Cyprus. Special Representative and Head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) Colin Stewart is expected to brief Council members on the Secretary-General’s forthcoming reports on UNFICYP and on his good offices mission in Cyprus, both of which are due on 3 July.

UNFICYP’s mandate expires on 31 January 2026.

Key Recent Developments

Over the past six months, efforts to revive formal negotiations on the Cyprus issue have seen cautious but notable momentum, driven by renewed UN engagement and a range of agreed confidence-building measures (CBMs) designed to rebuild trust between the parties. While deep political divisions remain—especially over the framework for a comprehensive settlement—both sides have taken part in a series of high-level meetings facilitated by the UN, representing the most sustained dialogue since the breakdown of talks in 2017.

On 17 and 18 March, Secretary-General António Guterres hosted an informal meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, aimed at revitalising the stalled peace process in Cyprus. The gathering brought together Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides, Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar, and representatives of the three guarantor powers—Greece, Türkiye, and the UK. Although the meeting did not yield a breakthrough on resuming formal settlement negotiations, the parties agreed on a set of CBMs. These included plans to open four new crossing points along the UN-controlled demilitarised zone known as the Green Line; establish a bicommunal Technical Committee on Youth; and advance joint initiatives on environmental and climate issues, such as addressing the impact of mining activities and promoting solar energy projects in the buffer zone. They also agreed to cooperate on the restoration of cemeteries. Guterres welcomed the outcome as “meaningful progress” and noted the emergence of a “new atmosphere” for dialogue. Christodoulides described the meeting as an “important first step”, while Tatar also expressed satisfaction. A follow-up informal meeting in this expanded format is planned for July.

On 2 April, the two leaders met on their own initiative in the divided city of Nicosia/Lefkoşa under UN auspices to assess progress on the agreements reached in March. In a joint statement following the meeting, they confirmed the establishment of a bicommunal Technical Committee on Youth. (First established in 2008 as key CBMs, the technical committees bring together experts from both communities to address practical, everyday issues impacting Cypriots island-wide. The newly formed Youth Committee is the first such body to be created in over a decade, marking a significant step in revitalising this cooperative framework.)

Christodoulides and Tatar also agreed to tackle the issue of demining by exchanging information on a proportional number of suspected hazardous areas, with further discussions to be led by the Greek Cypriot Negotiator Menelaos Menelaou and the Turkish Cypriot Special Representative Gunes Onar. The Technical Committee on Environment was tasked with advancing initiatives addressing environmental and climate-related challenges, particularly those associated with mining activities, while the Technical Committee on Cultural Heritage was given responsibility for cemetery restoration. Regarding the opening of new crossing points and the development of solar energy projects, the leaders instructed their representatives to continue negotiations with the aim of reaching mutually acceptable solutions.

A follow-up meeting held on 5 May and hosted by Stewart marked a continued effort to implement the CBMs agreed upon in Geneva. During the meeting, Christodoulides and Tatar officially launched the inaugural session of the bicommunal Technical Committee on Youth. The leaders also acknowledged progress in the restoration of cemeteries and instructed the Technical Committee on Cultural Heritage to move forward with the implementation of related projects. They further agreed to explore additional initiatives addressing environmental and climate change concerns.

However, the meeting also underscored persistent disagreements over specific aspects of implementation. Tatar reportedly refused to advance discussions on the opening of new crossing points or the stalled bicommunal wastewater treatment plant in Mia Milia,  focusing instead on the arrests by the Greek Cypriot authorities of individuals accused of selling Greek Cypriot-owned properties in the north. Despite these differences, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to joint initiatives and instructed their representatives to continue talks on outstanding issues regarding solar energy and new crossings.

On 2 May, Guterres reappointed María Ángela Holguín Cuéllar as his Personal Envoy on Cyprus. Holguín, who previously held the post from January to July 2024, returned to the island for a visit from 24 to 31 May, during which she held bilateral meetings with the two leaders. She also travelled to Ankara and Athens for consultations with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis, respectively. Following her visit, Holguín noted that both Cypriot leaders had conveyed a willingness to advance the implementation of the Geneva CBMs in the lead-up to a high-level informal meeting planned for July.

Human Rights-Related Developments

Between 16 and 24 January, the UN Working Group on the use of mercenaries conducted a nine-day visit to Cyprus. The delegation held meetings with representatives from governmental authorities, UN entities, and other stakeholders. The visit focused on assessing issues related to mercenaryism, mercenary-related actors and private military and security companies, particularly focusing on the maritime sector. The Working Group is expected to present a full report of its visit at the 60th session of the Human Rights Council (HRC) in September 2025.

On 21 January, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights submitted a report to the HRC on the question of human rights in Cyprus. Covering the period of 1 December 2023 to 30 November 2024, the report outlines key human rights concerns, including with respect to the right to life, the question of missing persons, and the principle of non-discrimination, among others. It concludes that meaningful progress in advancing human rights for all people in Cyprus remains elusive owing to the island’s continued division and stresses the importance of effectively addressing human rights protection gaps and issues to support efforts to reach a lasting, peaceful solution.

Key Issues and Options

Since the collapse of the 2017 unification talks in Crans-Montana, the key issue for the Security Council has been the lack of meaningful progress on the political front and the diminishing prospects for a political settlement of the Cyprus problem. The informal meeting in Geneva, followed by subsequent meetings between Christodoulides and Tatar, have generated cautious optimism.

The Council may wish to issue a presidential statement welcoming the renewed diplomatic engagement by the two sides and encouraging all parties to seize the opportunity presented by the Secretary-General’s re-appointment of Holguín as his Personal Envoy on Cyprus.

Another option would be for Holguín to be invited to brief at the Council’s forthcoming meeting on Cyprus or in a separate private meeting.

The uneven implementation of the CBMs agreed by the sides in Geneva is another issue for the Council. The bicommunal Technical Committee on Youth has been launched, work on cemetery restoration is underway, and the Environment Committee has begun exploring climate-related initiatives; however, disagreements persist over the location of new crossing points and solar-energy projects.

Council members could use the upcoming briefing in consultations to encourage Stewart to task UNFICYP with intensifying its support for the technical committees’ work on these issues. They could also request that the Secretary-General include concrete benchmarks for progress in these areas in his next Good Offices report.

Council Dynamics

Cyprus remains a low-intensity issue on the Council’s agenda. Permanent members with a vested interest in Cyprus include France, Russia, and the UK, which also serves as the penholder on the issue. Greece, which was elected on 6 June 2024 to serve as a non-permanent member of the Security Council from 2025 to 2026, is a key stakeholder in relation to UNFICYP and one of the three guarantor powers.

While the Council is united in its support for UNFICYP and a political process based on a bicommunal, bizonal federation (BBF) with political equality, members diverge on the conditions and timeframe for the unification talks. Some members have previously supported a comprehensive strategic review of the mission and timed benchmarks for an exit strategy tied to the political process. Russia remains adamant that there should be no external interference or attempts to impose solutions or timelines that might influence the peace talks.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON CYPRUS
Security Council Resolutions
31 January 2025S/RES/2771 This resolution extended the mandate of UNFICYP until 31 January 2026.
Secretary-General’s Reports
3 January 2025S/2025/6 This was the Secretary-General’s report on the UN operation in Cyprus.
3 January 2025S/2025/7 This was the Secretary-General’s report on his mission of good offices in Cyprus.

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