June 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 June 2025
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UNDOF (Golan)

Expected Council Action

In June, the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which expires on 31 December. In mid-June, an official from the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is expected to brief Council members in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF, due on 2 June, and the most recent developments.

Background and Key Recent Developments

UNDOF was established following the conclusion of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement (the 1974 agreement) between Israel and Syria, which ended the Yom Kippur War. Its mandate is to maintain the ceasefire between the parties and supervise the disengagement of Israeli and Syrian forces, as well as the areas of separation (a demilitarised buffer zone) and limitation (where Israeli and Syrian troops and equipment are restricted) in the Golan.

On 20 December 2024, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2766, renewing UNDOF’s mandate for another six months. The mandate renewal came shortly after Israeli troops entered the demilitarised zone following the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad earlier that month and a statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declaring that the disengagement agreement had “collapsed”. A 13 December UNDOF press statement confirmed a “significant increase in Israel Defence Forces (IDF) movements within the area of separation and along the ceasefire line” in direct violation of the 1974 agreement.

The Secretary-General’s most recent report on UNDOF’s activities, dated 12 March 2025 and covering the period from 19 November 2024 to 18 February 2025, noted that the ceasefire between Israel and Syria was “generally still maintained, notwithstanding multiple significant violations” of the 1974 agreement. It also reported that following Assad’s ouster and the entry of the IDF into the area of separation, the “situation was altered significantly, and the operations of UNDOF were affected, in violation of the relevant Security Council resolutions, including resolution 2766”.

Israel has cited security concerns, including the need to protect residents in northern Israel, as the reason for its operations within the buffer zone. Although Israel had initially indicated that its presence in the area would be temporary, Defence Minister Israel Katz said on 28 January, and again on 16 April, that the IDF would remain in the buffer zone “indefinitely”. During a 16 February meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke of preventing Iran from establishing a “new terror front” near the Golan Heights.

On 24 February, Netanyahu raised demands for the complete demilitarisation of southern Syria and affirmed that Israel would not allow any Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces—the Security Council-listed terrorist group which led Assad’s ouster—or Syrian forces to enter the area south of Damascus. He added that Israel would not allow any threat to the Druze—a minority sect present in both Syria and Israel—community in southern Syria. Israel has recently justified several military actions in Syrian territory—including airstrikes in Damascus—as necessary to protect the Druze community, following a wave of deadly clashes between militias aligned with the Syrian interim government and the Druze at the end of April.

Since December 2024, Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has repeatedly emphasised that Syria remains committed to the 1974 agreement. In a 13 February letter from the Permanent Representative of Syria to the UN addressed to the Security Council, Syria accused Israel of entering Syrian territory through the area of separation and of attacking and displacing residents, destroying infrastructure and agricultural land and taking control of dams, including the Al-Mantara dam—a vital water source for southern Syria. On 7 May, Sharaa said that his government is conducting indirect talks with Israel to “contain the situation”.

Residents in the Golan have reportedly said that Israeli soldiers have prevented them from accessing their own homes, displaced residents, raided houses, and fired upon protesters demonstrating against the IDF’s presence, raising fears of occupation. According to the Secretary-General’s latest report, during the reporting period, UNDOF received 18 complaints and requests for assistance from residents on the Bravo (Syrian) side of the buffer zone due to the presence and activities of the IDF.

The Secretary-General’s report notes that “as at 18 February, the IDF had constructed 10 positions in the area of separation and occupied two houses in the area of limitation”, in violation of the 1974 agreement. Satellite images published in Haaretz have shed light on IDF-constructed outposts—including on Mount Hermon, where UNDOF maintains the UN’s highest-elevation permanently staffed position.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 21 February, the Secretary-General submitted a report (A/HRC/58/72) to the Human Rights Council (HRC) on human rights in the occupied Syrian Golan. The report was prepared pursuant to HRC resolution 55/31, which asked the Secretary-General to report on the issue at its 58th session. In preparing the report, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, on behalf of the Secretary-General, sought the views of member states in Geneva on the implementation of the resolution’s relevant provisions. The report includes responses from Syria and Iran asserting that systematic human rights violations are occurring in the Golan and denouncing measures taken by Israel to extend its jurisdiction and laws to the region.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights presented a report to the Human Rights Council on 6 March that provides an update on Israel’s settlements in the Golan. The report’s findings detail an increase in the number of Israeli settlements and the Israeli settler population, together with the development of commercial projects, noting its impact on various human rights, including the rights to adequate food, health, housing and a clean, sustainable environment.

On 4 March, the HRC adopted a resolution on human rights in the occupied Syrian Golan (A/HRC/RES/58/26). The resolution condemns the practices of the Israeli occupation authorities affecting the human rights of the Syrian citizens in the territory and calls upon Israel to comply with the relevant resolutions of the General Assembly, the HRC and the Security Council, in particular Security Council resolution 497 (1981), and cease changing the Golan’s physical character, demographic composition, institutional structure and legal status.

Key Issues and Options

A key priority for the Council in June is the renewal of UNDOF’s mandate. Members could choose to have a technical rollover in order to avoid difficult negotiations at this stage. Members could also consider updating the renewal resolution in light of the significant shift in security dynamics in the Golan, increased challenges for UNDOF in addressing ongoing violations of the 1974 agreement, and obstructions preventing the mission from carrying out its mandate, while ensuring the safety and security of the peacekeepers.

Another issue for the Council is that the significant Israeli presence in the buffer zone could lead to an escalation between the parties that might imperil the ceasefire between Israel and Syria.

Members could also consider issuing a presidential statement urging the parties to uphold international law and their obligations under the 1974 agreement, underscoring that there should be no military forces or activities in the area of separation, other than those of UNDOF. The statement could also express concern over risks posed to local civilian populations by violations of the 1974 agreement and call upon the parties to ensure that UNDOF is accorded the ability to operate safely and securely and is allowed to operate freely in accordance with the agreement.

Council and Wider Dynamics

The Council remains united in its view that UNDOF plays an important role in regional stability. Despite historical divisions about who holds sovereignty over the Golan, Russia and the US have traditionally considered UNDOF as a separate issue on which they agree, serving as co-penholders on the issue.

Following the ouster of Assad, the dynamic between Russia and the US on the Syrian file has seen a shift. The two countries, once holding strongly opposing views, have shown increased alignment, as demonstrated by their co-penholdership of a 14 March presidential statement (S/PRST/2025/4) addressing sectarian violence and key issues on Syria’s political transition, and their agreement on 17 December 2024 Council press statement which was penned by France.

The IDF’s recent actions and presence in the Golan—as well as statements by Israeli officials on this issue—have generated criticism from some Council members. In its explanation of vote following the adoption of resolution 2766, Algeria said that Israel’s presence in the area of separation violates the disengagement agreement and Security Council resolutions, and raised questions about the occupation of Syrian territory.

During the Council’s monthly Syria meeting on 21 May, several Council members expressed concerns regarding Israel’s presence in the area of separation, with some demanding its full withdrawal, while calling for all parties to adhere to the 1974 agreement.

On the other hand, the US has often publicly recognised Israel’s security concerns over the Golan and has not taken issue with the IDF’s encroachment into Syrian territory.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON UNDOF

Security Council Resolutions
20 December 2024S/RES/2766 This resolution renewed the mandate of UNDOF for six months until 30 June 2025.
31 May 1974S/RES/350 This resolution established UNDOF.
Secretary-General’s Report
12 March 2025S/2025/154 This was the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on UNDOF, covering the period 19 November 2024 to 18 February 2025.

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