June 2025 Monthly Forecast

MIDDLE EAST

Iraq

Expected Council Action 

In June, the Security Council will hold its biannual meeting on the situation in Iraq. Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Mohamed Al Hassan will brief on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country, as well as on progress in implementing resolution 2732 of 31 May 2024, which streamlined UNAMI’s mandate and decided to close the mission by 31 December 2025.  

Key Recent Developments 

Resolution 2732 revised UNAMI’s mandate to focus on four priority areas during the drawdown period: electoral assistance to Iraqi authorities; facilitation of progress on Iraq-Kuwait issues; support for development and humanitarian tasks; and promotion of accountability and human rights protections. The resolution also requested the Secretary-General to submit a comprehensive transition and liquidation plan by 31 December 2024. (For more information about the resolution, see our 30 May 2024 What’s in Blue story.) 

The Secretary-General transmitted the transition plan in a letter dated 24 December 2024, outlining three core transition priorities. The first is the effective implementation of the mission’s remaining mandated tasks. In the area of electoral assistance, the plan emphasises that support will peak in the final weeks before the expected federal elections in late 2025 and that UNAMI will retain relevant personnel to ensure continuity in legal, technical, and gender-focused advisory roles. With respect to the Iraq-Kuwait file, the plan reiterates UNAMI’s role in facilitating efforts to clarify the fate of missing Kuwaiti and third-country nationals and the return of Kuwaiti property and notes that the Secretary-General will recommend an appropriate follow-on mechanism to ensure continued progress on these issues by 31 May, as requested by resolution 2732. UNAMI will also assist in development and humanitarian coordination, including in relation to durable solutions for internally displaced persons and in alignment with the 2025–2029 UN Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework for Iraq. Finally, the mission will continue to promote accountability and human rights protections, including through support for national institutions in monitoring and reporting human rights violations.  

The second drawdown priority concerns the phased transfer of responsibilities to the UN country team and Iraqi authorities. The plan identifies specific tasks and corresponding recipient entities, such as the transfer of electoral support roles to the UN Development Program (UNDP) and UN Women, and human rights monitoring to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). Coordination structures have been established to oversee this process, including the development of an integrated electoral assistance project. These structures also encompass ongoing consultations aimed at sustaining women’s protection, child rights monitoring, and climate-security work through existing UN mechanisms. 

The third priority entails a gradual drawdown of UNAMI’s personnel and physical footprint, including the closure of field offices and disposal of mission assets. The plan schedules the closure of Mosul and Kirkuk offices by mid-2025, with operations in Erbil and Baghdad continuing until the end of the mandate. It further includes provisions for the safe repatriation of guard units, environmental remediation of compounds, and a residual staffing presence within the Resident Coordinator’s office to support continuity into 2026. 

As UNAMI’s drawdown progresses, significant developments at the regional level continue to impact Iraq’s political and security landscape. The Secretary-General’s most recent biannual report on the threat posed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh), dated 31 January, noted that the group could exploit a potential power vacuum in Syria following the collapse of the al-Assad regime in December 2024 to regroup and strengthen its operational capacity. These risks compound the security challenges faced by Iraq, particularly in western provinces bordering Syria, and could undermine progress made in weakening ISIL’s presence in the region. They could also impact the situation assessment underlying the agreement reached by Iraq and the US in September 2024 to draw down the international anti-ISIL military coalition in Iraq. On 14 March, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’a al-Sudani announced that the leader of ISIL had been killed in an operation by Iraqi security forces, supported by the anti-ISIL coalition. 

The regional fallout from the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has also had significant repercussions for the country, particularly through the escalation of attacks by Iran-aligned armed groups operating as part of an informal coalition known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. In the months following the outbreak of hostilities in Gaza, these groups intensified rocket and drone attacks against US forces stationed in Iraq and Syria, citing solidarity with the Palestinians. While these attacks subsequently subsided following retaliatory US strikes, and Baghdad is engaged in negotiations to disarm or integrate these militias into the country’s regular armed forces, some groups and their political affiliates have reportedly denied any intention to disarm, framing such demands as compromising Iraq’s sovereignty and resistance posture. 

Key Issues and Options 

The key issue for the Security Council ahead of UNAMI’s termination is ensuring that the mission’s streamlined mandate is implemented effectively and that the drawdown proceeds in a safe and orderly manner. The June briefing provides an opportunity to assess transition progress and consider whether adjustments to resource allocation or staffing are needed to sustain gains and prevent reversals.  

Council members may also decide on a post-UNAMI mechanism to monitor progress on Iraq-Kuwait issues based on the Secretary-General’s recommendations. One option could be the appointment of a high-level coordinator or the integration of follow-up responsibilities into the portfolio of the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Iraq. 

Another issue is how the Council should respond to regional spillover risks and Iraq’s ongoing security sector challenges. Council members could encourage Iraq to continue efforts to assert state authority over armed actors and support disarmament and reintegration processes, including through bilateral assistance or capacity-building by other UN entities. 

While June’s meeting will be the Council’s last mandated briefing on UNAMI, members are likely to remain engaged on Iraq beyond the mission’s closure, particularly in relation to the Iraq-Kuwait file, counterterrorism, and regional security. These issues could also be affected by Iraq’s parliamentary elections later in 2025, which Council members are likely to monitor.  

Council Dynamics 

Council members are broadly supportive of the Iraqi government and its decision to request a time-bound termination of UNAMI. Resolution 2732 was adopted unanimously, and Council dynamics on the file remain generally cooperative, with continued interest in supporting Iraq’s transition into a post-mission phase.  

Regional developments and the risk of spillover from neighbouring conflicts continue to inform Council discussions, however. The US—the Council’s penholder on Iraq—has pressed the government to disarm Iran-aligned militias in the country. By contrast, members such as China and Russia have voiced concern about the foreign military presence in Iraq and urged respect for Iraq’s sovereignty.  

The UK—the penholder on the Iraq-Kuwait file—has emphasised the importance of progress on the missing persons and property file and expressed support for a follow-on mechanism post-UNAMI.  

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UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAQ 
 
Security Council Resolution
31 May 2024S/RES/2732 This resolution renewed UNAMI’s mandate for a final 19-month period until 31 December 2025.
Secretary-General’s Report
26 November 2024S/2024/857 This was the Secretary-General’s biannual report on UNAMI.
Security Council Letter
24 December 2024S/2024/966 This was a letter from the Secretary-General addressed to the President of the Security Council, transmitting the Secretary-General’s transition and liquidation plan for UNAMI, requested by resolution 2732.

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