June 2025 Monthly Forecast

AFRICA

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action

In June, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). Special Representative for the Central African Republic (CAR) and Head of MINUSCA Valentine Rugwabiza is expected to brief.

Key Recent Developments

On 20 February, Rugwabiza briefed the Security Council on recent political and security developments, as well as MINUSCA’s efforts to implement its mandate. She highlighted both the progress and challenges in implementing the 2019 Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation in the CAR (APPR), which marks its sixth anniversary this year. Rugwabiza also outlined ongoing preparations for national and local elections scheduled to take place later this year. (For more information, see our 19 November What’s in Blue story.)

In March, Assistant Secretary-General for the Peacebuilding Support in the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, Elizabeth Spehar, visited the CAR, accompanied by representatives of donors to the UN Peacebuilding Fund (PBF). She was joined by Shoko Noda, the Assistant Secretary-General for the Bureau for Crisis Management of the UN Development Programme (UNDP), and Alexandre Zouev, the Assistant Secretary-General for Rule of Law and Security Institutions in the Department of Peacekeeping Operations. The delegation met with the president, prime minister, and other senior CAR officials to discuss peacebuilding efforts, including preparations for the upcoming elections, progress in security sector reform, the implementation of the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration programme and the promotion of rule of law and justice.

MINUSCA is supporting the CAR authorities in organising local elections, which have been repeatedly postponed and are now scheduled for July. A significant funding shortfall has posed a major challenge. According to the Secretary-General’s February report, the National Electoral Authority revised the electoral budget from $14 million to $19 million—$12 million of which is managed by UNDP and $7 million by the National Electoral Authority. As of February, $7.1 million had been disbursed to the UNDP-managed basket fund by the government, the European Union, MINUSCA, and other international partners. Despite logistical and security constraints, the National Electoral Authority conducted voter registration in 11 of the 20 prefectures in the country in November and December 2024 and the remaining nine prefectures in March. Local elections will be held in the CAR for the first time in four decades; however, opposition and civil society groups have been calling for a boycott, citing concerns over the fairness and inclusivity of the process.

Following the 2023 constitutional referendum in the CAR, which removed presidential term limits, the country is also expected to hold presidential and legislative elections this year. President Faustin Touadéra is widely expected to seek a third term, although he has not yet formally announced his candidacy. In April, thousands of activists reportedly protested this potential move. The Republican Bloc for the Defense of the Constitution (BRDC), an opposition coalition, has indicated plans to organise additional demonstrations in the coming weeks and months.

The security situation in the CAR remains volatile, particularly in the northwest, east, and central regions. Competition over natural resources and control of key road corridors continues to fuel instability. Civilians are disproportionately affected by the ongoing violence. According to a 7 May press release from MINUSCA, the mission has continued to conduct patrols in the Basse-Kotto prefecture to prevent attacks and protect civilians. The conflict in neighbouring Sudan is also further complicating the security landscape in CAR due to its spillover effects. In April, Touadéra, in his capacity as the current Chair of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC), addressed a letter to the Secretary-General expressing deep concern over the crisis in Sudan and its broader implications for regional peace and security. The letter was circulated to Security Council members ahead of their 19 May private meeting on the situation in Sudan. During the meeting, a CAR representative echoed these concerns, underscoring the urgent need to find a lasting solution to the conflict.

Touadéra has reportedly attempted to engage armed opposition groups in dialogue, sending a delegation to N’Djamena to meet with opposition leaders based in Chad. This appears to be part of an effort to revive the Luanda Roadmap, adopted in December 2021 by the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) in support of the APPR. It remains unclear whether these outreach efforts have yielded any concrete progress.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 5 March, the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and MINUSCA released a report on the human rights situation in the CAR. The report’s findings documented cases of conflict-related sexual violence against women and girls and noted that in two waves of attacks in the Mbomou and Haut-Mbomou prefectures, in October 2024 and in January 2025, at least 24 people were killed by elements of Wagner Ti Azandé (WTA), an armed group with ties to the national army. In a subsequent press release, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk and Rugwabiza stressed the need to bring those accountable to justice, urging Central African authorities to sustain efforts to investigate the incidents and prosecute perpetrators in line with international standards.

In a 10 March press release, the Independent Expert on the situation of human rights in the CAR, Yao Agbetse, acknowledged the CAR’s commitment towards enhancing respect for human rights. Following a ten-day visit to the country, Agbetse warned of security concerns related to Azandé Ani Kpi Gbe (AAKG) and WTA, and cautioned against over-reliance on international development assistance, underscoring how such matters could hinder progress on human rights, transitional justice, and CAR’s long-term stability. In this regard, he highlighted the importance of national capacity development and local governance as tools for restoring and consolidating state authority, among other recommendations.

Key Issues and Options

The upcoming local and national elections in the CAR will be a key issue for Council members in June. Members will most likely be interested in following the state of preparation for the elections closely. The Guyanese Security Council Presidency could invite Spehar to brief in closed consultations about her recent visit to the CAR and her discussions focused on peacebuilding efforts in the country, including the organisation of local elections. Council members could also consider issuing a press statement reiterating their call for the CAR authorities to create the necessary conditions for the holding of free, transparent and inclusive elections by opening up civic space for the participation of all sections of society, including women and youth.

Council members remain concerned about the security situation in the CAR. They may reiterate their call on non-signatory armed groups to the APPA to lay down their arms and join the political process through dialogue. Council members could consider holding a briefing on the spillover effects of the conflict in Sudan on regional peace and security.

The humanitarian and human rights situation in the CAR is also an ongoing concern, with persistent human rights violations and abuses against civilians, including women and children. Council members may welcome the high-level dialogue held in Geneva on 1 April as part of the 58th session of the UN Human Rights Council to discuss the human rights situation in the CAR. A possible option is for Council members to request an informal briefing from the High Commissioner for Human Rights or the Independent Expert.

Another major challenge facing MINUSCA is the lack of adequate resources to effectively carry out its mandated tasks. According to the UN Secretariat report early this month to the Fifth Committee of the General Assembly on administrative and budgetary matters, unpaid assessed contributions to MINUSCA’s special account totalled $411.5 million on 30 April. In June, Rugwabiza may reiterate her call for member states’ support in this regard.

Council and Wider Dynamics

Compared to other UN peacekeeping missions facing significant challenges, MINUSCA is viewed as a relative success. In a notable development, the Security Council unanimously adopted the renewal of MINUSCA’s mandate in November 2024, the first unanimous renewal in four years, signalling strong support for the mission’s work.

It seems that the CAR has been trying to mend its relations with Western partners to ease its economic difficulties, which appears to have contributed to the resumption of bilateral and multilateral support from these countries, including France and the European Union. At the same time, it has maintained its security cooperation with Russia, which is of concern to its Western partners. The CAR is also expanding its relations with other non-traditional partners, such as the United Arab Emirates, which appears to have become active in the CAR recently.

Council dynamics may be complicated by the US’ position on funding peacekeeping operations. It indicated in a 2 May letter to the US Senate Appropriations Committee that it would withhold funding for UN peacekeeping missions, citing “recent failures and the high level of assessments”. The letter specifically accused UN peacekeepers of involvement in smuggling gold, diamonds, and drugs in the CAR. These allegations apparently date back to 2021, implicating Portuguese peacekeepers serving in MINUSCA. Portugal has reportedly conducted investigations into these allegations and detained some suspects.

France is the penholder on the CAR.

Sign up for SCR emails
UN DOCUMENTS ON THE CAR

Security Council Resolutions
14 November 2024S/RES/2759 This resolution renewed MINUSCA’s mandate for one year until 15 November 2025.
Security Council Meeting Records
20 February 2025S/PV.9864 This was a Security Council meeting on the situation in the Central African Republic (CAR).

Subscribe to receive SCR publications