June 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 June 2025
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ASIA

Afghanistan 

Expected Council Action 

In June, the Security Council will convene for its quarterly open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Afghanistan. Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Roza Otunbayeva, UN Women Executive Director Sima Sami Bahous, and a senior official from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are expected to brief. The delivery of humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan will be one aspect of the briefing in accordance with resolution 2615.   

UNAMA’s mandate expires on 17 March 2026. 

Key Recent Developments 

Afghanistan continues to grapple with one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. According to OCHA’s humanitarian update on Afghanistan, which was published on 21 May and covers the period from 1 to 28 February, 23.7 million Afghans—over half of the country’s population—require humanitarian assistance.  

Despite the scale of the crisis, humanitarian actors in Afghanistan are facing a critical funding shortfall that is affecting their efforts to provide aid. During his visit to Afghanistan from 27 April to 2 May, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher warned that some local non-governmental organisations were planning to lay off half of their staff and noted that 400 health clinics had closed “in the last few weeks”. Several weeks earlier, World Food Programme (WFP) Acting Country Director for Afghanistan Mutinta Chimuka told reporters that her agency had been forced to cut rations and indicated that it may not be able to provide food assistance to all those in need in 2025.  

The Trump administration’s decision to suspend all remaining funding for humanitarian aid in Afghanistan is expected to have a significant impact on humanitarian operations in the country. In a 22 April update, OCHA warned that several million less people will receive humanitarian assistance in 2025 without US funding, noting that through the end of February, 7.3 million people have received humanitarian support in Afghanistan, compared to 8.6 million in the same two-month period in 2024.  

The update also said that the suspension is already having far-reaching consequences, with 68 percent of the UN’s humanitarian partners reducing their target, 45 percent reducing their geographical coverage, and 42 percent reducing their staff. On 23 April, OCHA announced that it had undertaken “an urgent prioritisation” of the 2025 Afghanistan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) and revised the financial requirement to $1.62 billion, a 31 percent reduction in the amount called for when the HNRP was first released. 

On 13 May, Fletcher briefed Council members and other member states on his visit to Afghanistan. The briefing was convened by China and held at its mission. Fletcher met with local humanitarian actors and several Taliban officials during the visit, including Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.  In their meeting, Fletcher and Muttaqi spoke about efforts in Afghanistan to address insecurity and drugs, as well as the adverse effects of climate change on the humanitarian situation in the country. Fletcher also underscored the challenges facing women in Afghanistan, emphasising that development is not possible without the education and full participation of girls.  

The human rights situation in Afghanistan remains dire, particularly for women and girls. On 10 April, UNAMA released a report on the implementation, enforcement, and impact of the “Law on the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice” (PVPV Law), which was promulgated by the Taliban in August 2024. The report notes that UNAMA has observed systematic and consistent efforts to enforce the PVPV law, including the establishment of “provincial implementation committees” in 28 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces and that enforcement has led to infringements of personal and private spaces, public areas, and economic activities for various groups in Afghan society, with women disproportionately impacted. It states that implementation of the PVPV Law has hampered the ability of UN agencies and non-governmental organisations to deliver humanitarian assistance and is likely to compound Afghanistan’s dire economic situation.  The report further observes that both the law and the efforts to implement it suggest that the Taliban is continuing to pursue a path that distances Afghanistan from its international obligations.    

According to UNAMA’s latest report on the human rights situation in Afghanistan, Taliban inspectors enforcing the PVPV Law have continued to instruct health clinics, shops, markets, government offices, and taxi drivers to deny services to women not accompanied by a male relative and have prevented women from accessing other public spaces. The report also highlights specific violations of Afghan women’s right to work and particular instances of gender-based violence against women and girls.  

In an 8 March statement, UNAMA reiterated its call for the Taliban to lift restrictions on the rights of women and girls and called on member states to “translate solidarity into action by amplifying Afghan women’s voices, supporting their leadership, and investing in their resilience and future”. 

On 23 March, the US lifted multimillion-dollar bounties on three senior Taliban figures and members of the Haqqani network—Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, Abdulaziz Haqqani, and Yaha Haqqani. The move came several days after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that a US citizen had been released from Taliban captivity following a visit to Kabul by a US delegation that included former US Special Representative for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad and Trump advisor Adam Boehler.  According to media reports, Taliban officials pushed for US recognition as the government of Afghanistan during talks with the delegation. 

On 17 April, the Supreme Court of Russia suspended the Taliban’s designation as a terrorist organisation, a decision widely seen as paving the way for closer ties between Moscow and the Taliban. On 23 April, Russia announced that it had raised the Taliban’s diplomatic representation in Moscow to the ambassadorial level. Several weeks later, on 2 May, Russian Presidential Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov told state media that Russia will help the Taliban fight the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K)—ISIL’s Afghan affiliate—“through specialised structures”. 

Tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban have continued to simmer in recent months. On 19 March, the Torkham border crossing between the two countries was reopened after clashes between Pakistani and Taliban security forces led to its closure for nearly a month. In late March, media outlets reported that Pakistan plans to expel nearly three million Afghans during 2025 as part of an ongoing crackdown that first began in October 2023. According to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), approximately 144,000 thousand Afghans returned from Pakistan in April, 30,000 of whom were deported. On 4 April, a group of independent human rights experts appointed by the UN Human Rights Council called on Pakistan to halt plans to forcibly remove Afghans. Pakistan has expressed concerns about security and crime linked to the high number of Afghan refugees, a claim challenged by Afghanistan. On 27 April, Pakistani security forces announced that they had killed 54 Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants as they attempted to cross the border between the two countries.  

Member states are currently negotiating a General Assembly resolution on “the situation in Afghanistan”, led by Germany. The General Assembly last adopted a resolution on “the situation in Afghanistan” on 4 November 2022 with 116 votes in favour, zero votes against, and 10 abstentions (Belarus, Burundi, China, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Russia, and Zimbabwe).    

At the time of writing, UNAMA, the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA), and the participants in the Doha process are working on the roadmap for political engagement referred to in the report of the Afghanistan independent assessment requested by resolution 2679. (Among other matters, the independent assessment outlined an “architecture for engagement” to guide political, humanitarian, and development activities in Afghanistan. For background on the independent assessment and the Doha process, see our  27 November 2023, 8 December 2023, 28 December 2023, 25 February 2024, and 7 March 2025What’s in Blue stories and our June 2024 and September 2024Monthly Forecasts.) 

Women, Peace, and Security 

Azadah Raz Mohammad, Co-Founder of the Ham Diley Campaign, briefed the Security Council during the 10 March meeting on Afghanistan. She highlighted that, since 2021, the Taliban have issued at least 126 decrees depriving women and girls of fundamental rights and freedoms as well as access to healthcare and justice. Raz Mohammad said that the Taliban have “systematically persecuted ethnic and religious groups” and that the LGBT community, which was already “at great risk” before the Taliban takeover in August 2021, currently faces systematic violence. She expressed concern about steps by member states to “normalize the Taliban”, citing the exclusion of Afghan women from formal discussions at the third Doha meeting in June 2024 as a particularly harmful example of compliance by the international community with a demand by the Taliban. Raz Mohammad welcomed the January announcement by the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court that he had applied to the Court for arrest warrants for two Taliban leaders for gender persecution and called on member states to exercise universal jurisdiction to bring Taliban leaders who are committing international crimes to justice. Among other recommendations, she called on the Security Council to demand that the Taliban immediately reverse all policies and practices that prevent the full enjoyment of women’s human rights. Raz Mohammad urged the Council to impose sanctions on Taliban leaders who have committed human rights violations against Afghan women and girls, and not to lift sanctions, including travel bans, on those who have perpetrated such crimes. She also stressed the importance of guaranteeing the full, equal, meaningful, and safe participation of diverse Afghan women in all international discussions about Afghanistan’s future. Additionally, she called for gender apartheid to be codified as a crime against humanity, including through the draft treaty on crimes against humanity. 

Key Issues and Options 

The Taliban’s continuing refusal to adhere to many of Afghanistan’s international obligations, especially those relating to women and girls, is a major issue for the Council and directly contradicts the recommendations outlined in the report of the Afghanistan independent assessment. Council members could ask for an informal meeting with representatives of DPPA and UNAMA to discuss possible Council action in response to the Taliban’s actions. Members could use this meeting to ask for an update on the roadmap for political engagement, next steps in the Doha process, and the activities of the working groups on counter-narcotics and the private sector that participants in the third Doha meeting agreed to establish in mid-2024. At the time of writing, it appears that the working groups may convene during the coming months. 

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is another significant issue. During the Council’s December 2024 open briefing on Afghanistan, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher called for the Council to support efforts to reduce aid obstruction and restrictive measures. Members could hold an informal meeting with humanitarian actors to discuss possible steps that the Council could take in this regard.  

The Council could also consider undertaking a review of the 1988 Afghanistan sanctions regime. Apart from the humanitarian exception established by resolution 2615, the regime has not been updated since the Taliban seized power in August 2021. Such a review could analyse whether the regime is fit for purpose and whether it needs to be updated in light of current circumstances.  

The threat of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan remains an issue. The 6 February report of the Monitoring Team assisting the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL/Da’esh Sanctions Committee notes that there are more than two dozen terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan and says that these groups pose “a serious challenge to the stability of the country, as well as to the security of Central Asian and other neighbouring states”. Council members could hold an informal meeting with a counter-terrorism expert, which would give members a chance to discuss possible options for bolstering the Council’s efforts to manage this threat. 

Council Dynamics 

Although Council members are generally united in their desire to see a prosperous, peaceful Afghanistan free from terrorism and ruled by an inclusive government, they are divided over how to achieve this goal. Some members, including the P3 (France, the UK, and the US) and other like-minded states, have previously argued that the Taliban must adhere to international norms in order to obtain international recognition and receive economic and development aid from the international community. 

China and Russia, on the other hand, have contended that the international community should provide economic and development assistance to Afghanistan without linking it to other issues, such as human rights, and prefer dialogue and engagement without any increased pressure. Both members have also repeatedly called for the release of frozen assets belonging to Afghanistan’s central bank, the bulk of which were seized by the US following the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021. 

These divisions were on display during the negotiations leading to the renewal of UNAMA’s mandate in March, where Council members disagreed over preambular language regarding development aid, economic recovery, frozen assets, engagement, and women, peace and security. (For more information, see our 17 March What’s in Blue story.)  

Council members have not been able to agree on the penholdership on the Afghanistan file since Japan—which held the pen in 2024—ended its two-year Council term in December 2024. Two pairs of Council members have indicated that they are willing to work together as co-penholders: China and Pakistan on the one hand, and the Republic of Korea and the US on the other. During discussions concerning UNAMA’s mandate, members agreed that the presidents of the Council in February and March—China and Denmark—would lead the negotiations. At the time of writing, members have not been able to resolve the dispute regarding penholdership.  

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UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN
 
Security Council Resolutions
17 March 2025S/RES/2777 This extended UNAMA’s mandate until 17 March 2026.

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