April 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 March 2025
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MIDDLE EAST

Yemen

Expected Council Action

In April, the Security Council will hold its monthly meeting on Yemen.

The mandate of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) expires on 14 July. 

Key Recent Developments

The Yemeni Houthi rebel group (also known as Ansar Allah) continued its escalatory rhetoric and attacks against Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian people. Since the onset of the war in Gaza in November 2023, the Houthis have launched over 100 attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, as well as multiple missile and drone attacks towards Israeli territory, most of which have been intercepted. The Houthis are part of a coalition dubbed the “Axis of Resistance”, which is supported by Iran and includes Hamas and Hezbollah.

The US has increased its rhetoric against the Houthis, warning that it would take action against the Houthis if they resumed their attacks in the Red Sea and on Israel, including in its statement in the 6 March Council meeting on Yemen. On 4 March, the US State Department, acting under an executive order signed by President Donald Trump shortly after taking office on 20 January, designated the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO). In spite of this, the Houthis announced on 7 March that they would restart their naval operations against Israel if Israel continued to block aid shipments into Gaza.

On 15 and 16 March, the US launched multiple large-scale airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen—including in the capital, Sanaa, and the Houthi-controlled province of Sa’ada—marking the first significant escalation in Yemen since the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement took effect on 19 January. According to the Houthi health ministry spokesperson, 53 people were killed in the strikes, including five children and two women, and 98 people were wounded. US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said that the attacks targeted and killed “multiple Houthi leaders” as part of a strategic aim to go after the group’s leadership. The Houthis, however, reportedly pledged that they would respond to the “escalation with further escalation” and that its militants would also target US ships in the Red Sea.

In response to these developments, the Office for the Spokesperson of the UN Secretary-General expressed concern on 17 March about the continued threats by the Houthis and the US strikes on Houthi-controlled areas. The UN called for restraint and warned that additional escalations could exacerbate regional tensions and “further destabilise Yemen and the region and pose grave risks to the already dire humanitarian situation in the country”.

Since Israel’s resumption of large-scale military operations in Gaza on 18 March (for more information, see our 20 March What’s in Blue story), the Houthis have reportedly launched at least seven ballistic missile attacks on Israel, all of which have been successfully intercepted. Reportedly, the US has continued to conduct intense airstrikes on Houthi targets, including in the capital Sanaa and the port city of Hodeidah, while Trump has also warned that the Houthis would be “completely annihilated”.

A key part of the US approach to the Houthis also involves holding Iran directly responsible for the support it provides to the group as part of a wider strategy of maximising pressure on Tehran. In a Truth Social platform post, Trump said that any attack by the Houthis will be deemed an attack from Iran and that the US will hold it responsible. In response, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly warned of “a severe blow” if the US or any other nation acts against Iran and dismissed accusations that the Houthis are Iranian proxies. The inflammatory exchange of rhetoric also comes at a time when the US is pressuring Tehran over its nuclear program.

The security situation within Yemen is of growing concern. The UN-mediated truce of April 2022 remains largely in effect. In his remarks at the 6 March Council meeting on Yemen, however, UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg warned that “a return to full conflict is palpable” as military activity continues to drive instability. He referred to concerning “recent reports of shelling, drone attacks, infiltration attempts and mobilization campaigns” on multiple fronts and reiterated his calls for the parties to “refrain from military posturing and retaliatory measures that could risk plunging Yemen back into widespread conflict”. Media reports suggest the Houthis have increased mobilisation and attacks in certain areas, such as Marib—a province controlled by the Yemeni government with oil and gas resources that could gain increased importance if the FTO designation results in resource shortages for the Houthis.

On the political front, the intra-Yemeni political and peace processes remain at a standstill. During the Council’s last meeting on Yemen, Grundberg stressed that for a comprehensive settlement of the conflict in Yemen, the environment must be conducive to peace; his briefing occurred a few days before the most recent exchange of escalatory rhetoric and strikes. He added that, notwithstanding the potential ramifications of the FTO designation, efforts to advance a peaceful settlement in Yemen remain critical, and the elements of Yemen’s roadmap for peace continue to represent a viable path towards a principled and impartial resolution of the conflict. To settle the conflict in Yemen, Grundberg identified three challenges that must be addressed by the conflict parties: a nationwide ceasefire and a mechanism to implement it; agreement on difficult concessions and compromises, particularly on the economic situation; and lastly, an inclusive political process.

The Houthis also continue to hold UN, non-governmental organisation (NGO), civil society, and diplomatic mission personnel in detention, further undermining efforts to advance the Yemeni peace process. Since May 2024, the Houthis have detained more than 50 such personnel. The 10 February UN pause on operations and programmes in the Sa’ada governate continues because of an erosion in the necessary security conditions and guarantees required to operate, impacting the UN’s ability to deliver aid to those in need. In a 13 February press statement, Security Council members demanded that the Houthis immediately and unconditionally release all those detained and ensure safe, rapid and unimpeded humanitarian access to areas under their control.

Women, Peace and Security

In his briefing at the 6 March Security Council meeting on Yemen, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher expressed concern about the severe consequences of funding cuts on humanitarian aid in the country, focusing in particular on the negative impact on the situation of women and girls. He said that 9.6 million women and girls in Yemen are “in severe need of life-saving humanitarian assistance”, 1.3 million pregnant women and new mothers are malnourished, 1.5 million girls are out of school, and approximately one-third of all girls in Yemen are married before the age of 18. Fletcher warned that these statistics will become worse as funding for Yemen “evaporates”. He stressed that funding suspensions have already led to the closure of 22 safe spaces, “denying services and support to over 11,000 women and girls in high-risk areas”. Fletcher noted that despite “bearing the greatest burdens” of the war in Yemen, women remain on the frontlines of survival and recovery, and he called on the international community to ensure humanitarians have the funding to “save as many lives” as possible.

Key Issues and Options

Yemen is facing immense challenges on the political, security, and economic fronts. Renewed hostilities—including the ramped-up US campaign against the Houthis, Houthi threats in the Red Sea, and their attacks on Israel—contribute to a continued lack of progress towards an intra-Yemeni political resolution and degradation of the country’s security and humanitarian environment as well as pushing the overall prospects for peace further off course. 

Preventing a severe escalation of hostilities in Yemen and the Red Sea and relaunching the stalled intra-Yemeni political process will remain priorities for the Security Council. Should the situation continue to escalate, Council members may seek ways to add pressure for an urgent resumption of dialogue between the Houthis and the Yemeni government towards a nationwide ceasefire and a political settlement.

One option for the Council would be to issue a presidential statement stressing that there is no military solution to the conflict in Yemen and demanding that the Yemeni parties resume concrete discussions on establishing a roadmap under UN auspices for inclusive peace in the country. The statement could also reiterate provisions from Council resolution 2768, emphasising the need to address the root causes of the attacks in the Red Sea and calling on all member states to adhere to the arms embargo imposed by the 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee. (Adopted on 15 January 2025, resolution 2768 extended the Secretary-General’s monthly reporting requirement on Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.)

A related issue is the impact of the continued threat of attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea on freedom of navigation, global supply chains, and the provision of humanitarian aid in Yemen. An option would be to hold an informal interactive dialogue with regional countries to discuss the importance of maritime security, freedom of navigation, stability of supply chains, and safety of seafarers.

Council members may also seek to address the country’s deepening humanitarian crisis by encouraging the parties to remove obstacles to the delivery of humanitarian aid and by urging member states to mobilise funding to meet the requirements of the Yemen Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for 2025, including through a potential pledging conference.

Council Dynamics

Council members are largely aligned in support of an inclusive intra-Yemeni political process, the need to improve humanitarian conditions in the country, and an immediate end to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Advancing mediation efforts towards a resumption of dialogue and a peace process under UN auspices remains a priority for members.

Nevertheless, Council members have divergent views on what is fuelling the political stalemate and insecurity in Yemen. In Council meetings, Algeria, China, Pakistan, and Russia have stressed that the situation in Yemen and the Red Sea cannot be discussed in isolation from the situation in the occupied Palestinian territory, and some have directly blamed Israel for instability in the region. Russia has also accused the UK and the US of undermining security in Yemen through their retaliatory strikes on the Houthis. On the other hand, the P3 members (France, the UK, and the US) have been critical of Iran’s role in supporting the Houthis, including militarily.

Illustrating President Trump’s policy of increasing pressure on the Houthis, the US stressed during the 6 March Council meeting that it is taking concrete steps to eliminate the Houthis’ capabilities and to exert maximum pressure on Iran to end the support it provides to the armed group. The US further stressed that the Council must respond to Iran’s flagrant violations of Council resolutions through its continued arming of the Houthis.

Furthermore, Council members may have increasing concerns regarding the impact of funding cuts on the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which has become more dire as a result of the recent US Agency for International Development (USAID) aid suspensions. In 2024, USAID disbursed approximately $620 million to Yemen, $580 million of which was for humanitarian assistance.

The UK is the penholder on Yemen.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN

Security Council Resolutions
15 January 2025S/RES/2768 This resolution extended the Secretary-General’s monthly reporting requirement on Houthi attacks on merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea.
Security Council Press Statements
13 February 2025SC/15995 This was a press statement on Houthi Detention of United Nations, International Non-governmental Organization Workers.
Security Council Meeting Records
6 March 2025S/PV.9873 This was a Security Council meeting on Yemen.

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