April 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 March 2025
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The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

Expected Council Action 

In April, the Security Council will hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (MEPQ). France, the Council president for the month, intends to convene the debate at the ministerial level. French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Jean-Noël Barrot is expected to chair the meeting. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is the anticipated briefer. 

Council members may convene additional meetings during the month and evaluate whether any Council action is required. 

Key Recent Developments 

April’s quarterly debate will take place at a critical juncture in the Israel-Hamas war following the collapse of the ceasefire agreement between the parties and the resurgence of hostilities in Gaza. On 18 March, Israel resumed large-scale military operations in the territory for the first time since the first phase of the ceasefire went into effect in January, launching airstrikes that killed over 400 people, including at least 170 children and 80 women, according to figures cited by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). The strikes have continued since then, reportedly pushing Gaza’s total death toll since the beginning of the conflict past 50,000 and newly displacing an estimated 142,000 people. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have also resumed ground operations in the territory, reasserting control over parts of the Netzarim corridor separating northern and southern Gaza and moving troops into other areas across the enclave, which Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has threatened to permanently annex. Hamas has condemned the escalation and called for a return to the ceasefire while also launching retaliatory rocket fire into Israel. 

UN staff have been among the casualties of the hostilities. On 19 March, one staff member from the UN Office for Project Services (UNOPS) was killed and six others were wounded when strikes hit a UN compound in central Gaza. In a 24 March statement, Spokesperson for the Secretary-General Stéphane Dujarric said that “[b]ased on the information currently available, the strikes…were caused by an Israeli tank”. The statement noted that the compound was well known to the conflict parties and stressed that the parties were bound by international law to protect the inviolability of UN premises, without which UN staff “face intolerable risks as they work to save the lives of civilians”. Dujarric announced that the UN would consequently “reduce the Organization’s footprint in Gaza, even as humanitarian needs soar and our concern over the protection of civilians intensifies”. On 28 March, the Security Council held a private meeting on the humanitarian situation and protection of aid workers in Gaza. 

Israeli officials have described the renewed military operation as a response to Hamas’ rejection of US proposals to extend the first phase of the ceasefire, which expired on 1 March. On 2 March, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu endorsed a proposed “framework” for a “temporary ceasefire for the Ramadan and Passover period”, which he attributed to US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff. Under this plan—which proposed different terms than the initial ceasefire agreement that the parties had agreed to in January—Hamas would release half of the 59 hostages it is still holding on the first day that the framework goes into effect and the remaining hostages on the last day, with the parties negotiating a permanent ceasefire in the interim. In the same statement, Netanyahu said that Hamas had rejected the proposal and that Israel would therefore prevent the entry of humanitarian aid and commercial supplies into Gaza, adding that there would be “additional consequences” if Hamas did not change its position. (For more information about Gaza’s humanitarian situation, see our 17 March and 27 March What’s in Blue stories.) 

Hamas reportedly described the US-proposed framework as a violation of the original ceasefire agreement and characterised Israel’s decision to block humanitarian aid as “cheap blackmail” and a “war crime”. According to media reports, the parties have subsequently exchanged a series of modified proposals to halt the hostilities, but they have been unable to reach an agreement. Israel apparently insists on extending the first phase of the ceasefire to facilitate the release of more hostages under a temporary truce, while Hamas seeks to advance to the second stage, which would make the ceasefire permanent. In a 17 March statement announcing the resumption of Israel’s military operations, Netanyahu said that he had ordered the IDF to “take strong action” against Hamas following the impasse in negotiations, adding that Israel “will, from now on, act against Hamas with increasing military strength”.  

Violence has also escalated in the West Bank, where Israel has been conducting what it has described as a large-scale counterterrorism operation since 21 January. Delivering the 21 March briefing on the implementation of resolution 2334 of 23 December 2016, Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process ad interim Sigrid Kaag said that the operation is the longest conducted by Israel in the West Bank since 2002 and has included airstrikes, the deployment of tanks, and the destruction of residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, displacing 40,000 people from the northern part of the territory. More broadly, a report dated 18 March from the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights detailed an expansion of Israeli settlements and a rise in settler violence in the West Bank since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas conflict.  

Developments concerning the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) have also continued to generate controversy. On 30 January, two Israeli laws restricting UNRWA’s operations entered into force. One piece of legislation prohibits Israeli officials from having contact with UNRWA or anyone acting on its behalf. The other prohibits UNRWA from operating on Israeli territory, which the country interprets as encompassing the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), including East Jerusalem, where UNRWA’s West Bank field office is based. In a 10 March statement, UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini said that the agency has faced “serious operational challenges” since the laws came into effect. Israeli authorities have exerted increasing pressure on the agency to vacate its premises and stop providing services in East Jerusalem, according to the statement, and have “effectively” expelled international staff from the West Bank by denying them visas. Lazzarini warned that dismantling UNRWA without a political process that would hand over the agency’s responsibilities to “empowered and prepared Palestinian institutions” risks further destabilising the OPT and wider region. 

The previous quarterly debate on MEPQ took place on 20 January, which was the same day that US President Donald Trump returned to office. After his inauguration, Trump made a series of remarks suggesting that the US would “take over” Gaza after the war and that neighbouring countries would resettle displaced Palestinians, who would not have a right to return to the territory. The comments were strongly rejected by Palestinians and much of the international community, including Arab countries in the region, which accelerated discussions on an alternative plan for Gaza’s reconstruction and governance.  

At an extraordinary summit held on 4 March in Cairo, the League of Arab States (LAS) endorsed a plan proposed by Egypt that calls for $53 billion over five years to build housing, critical infrastructure, and industrial zones in Gaza without displacing civilians, initially under the management of an administrative committee of Palestinian technocrats that would hand over control of the territory to the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) after a six-month transitional period. The plan also calls for the Security Council to deploy peacekeepers to Gaza and the West Bank to protect both Palestinians and Israelis, with the ultimate aim of preserving the viability of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and preventing the resurgence of hostilities. 

Human Rights-Related Developments 

In an 18 March press release, Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territory Francesca Albanese said that Palestinians face a “serious risk of mass ethnic cleansing” as Israel continues its operations in Gaza and the West Bank. Referring to the mass casualties and displacement that these operations have caused, Albanese said that Israel’s conduct “amounts to a genocidal campaign to erase Palestinians as a people”. The Special Rapporteur urged member states to support the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in November 2024 for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. (The ICC also sought arrest warrants for Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, and Mohammed Deif, all of whom were later killed in Israeli operations.) Albanese additionally called for targeted sanctions, the halt of all arms transfers, and the prosecution of those accountable for crimes in the OPT, among other recommendations.  

On 18 March, the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights published a report about the human rights consequences of Israel’s settlement policies in the OPT, including East Jerusalem. Covering the period from 1 November 2023 to 31 October 2024, the report details Israel’s activities in the territory and steps taken by the government to militarise the settler movement further, finding a monthly average of 118 incidents of settler violence. In a press release accompanying the report, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk described Israel’s settlement policy, its acts of annexation, and related discriminatory legislation and measures as breaches of international law. Türk also said that Israel’s “transfer…of parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies amounts to a war crime”. He called on Israel to abide by the July 2024 advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice—which found that Israel’s continued presence in the OPT is unlawful—and immediately cease all new settlement activities and evacuate all settlers from the territory, among other measures.   

Women, Peace and Security 

In a 13 March report, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the OPT and Israel examined sexual, reproductive, and other forms of gender-based violence carried out by the Israeli security forces and Israeli settlers since 7 October 2023. The report documents the disproportionate impact on women and girls of air and artillery strikes in Gaza and cases of “deliberate targeting and killing of civilian women and girls” by members of the Israeli security forces, as well as specific gendered harms “suffered as a result of starvation as a method of warfare, forcible transfer, extermination and collective punishment”. Among other findings, the report highlights the systematic destruction of sexual and reproductive healthcare facilities across the Gaza Strip and “widespread and systematic abuse and sexual and gender-based violence” in Israeli detention. The report stresses that the “frequency, prevalence and severity of sexual and gender-based crimes” perpetrated across the OPT has led the Commission to conclude that “sexual and gender-based violence is increasingly used as a method of war by Israel to destabilize, dominate, oppress and destroy the Palestinian people”.  

Key Issues and Options 

The Council’s continued failure to expedite an end to the war in Gaza and its inability to safeguard the viability of the two-state solution remain fundamental issues undermining the Council’s credibility. 

In this context, the Council’s immediate concern in April is the collapse of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement and the resumption of hostilities between the parties. Associated issues include the urgent need to restore humanitarian access to Gaza and ensure the protection of civilians in the territory, including UN and humanitarian personnel, as well as the remaining hostages held by Hamas and other armed groups. Given current political dynamics, Council members are unlikely to agree on a product addressing these issues, but some members may still wish to initiate a draft resolution to build political pressure and raise visibility in light of the increasing severity of the crisis and the apparent impasse in negotiations between the parties. 

If the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate due to the halt in aid, Council members may also wish to receive an update from the UN Secretariat on the risk of famine in the territory. OCHA could submit this update to the Council in the form of a “white note” under its mandate in resolution 2417 of 24 May 2018, which condemned the use of starvation of civilians as a method of warfare and requested the Secretary-General to “swiftly report” to the Council on situations in which the risk of conflict-induced famine and widespread food insecurity are present. (The Council held a briefing in response to a white note that OCHA previously submitted in February 2024, as well as a briefing on the risk of famine in northern Gaza in November 2024 after the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Famine Review Committee warned of “a strong likelihood that famine is imminent in areas within the northern Gaza Strip”.) Additionally, members could consider inviting OCHA or a civil society representative to brief on the humanitarian consequences of the UN’s reduced footprint in Gaza. 

Similar to the reporting request in resolution 2417, resolution 2730 of 24 May 2024 requested the Secretary-General to report to the Council on situations in which there are “widespread issues” regarding the safety and security of humanitarian and UN personnel. In light of the recent death attacks on such personnel in Gaza, some Council members may also wish to receive a broader update from OCHA on this issue, building on the 28 March private meeting held in connection with the death and injuries of UNOPS staff. 

With respect to longer-term political issues, some Council members may wish to initiate discussions on measures to support the LAS-endorsed plan for Gaza’s post-conflict reconstruction and governance, including initiatives to mobilise funding for the proposal. Members could also request the Secretary-General to report on possible modalities for the potential UN peacekeeping mission that the plan envisions. Additionally, Council members—along with the broader UN membership—may begin informal consultations to prepare for the upcoming high-level conference on the implementation of UN resolutions on the question of Palestine and the two-state solution “for the achievement of a just, lasting and comprehensive peace in the Middle East”. The conference—which was mandated by the General Assembly in December 2024—is scheduled to take place in June and will be co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia. 

Council Dynamics 

Intractable dynamics have characterised the Council’s response to the war in Gaza, which has been marked by contentious and prolonged negotiations with multiple failed adoptions. Negotiations of Council products on this file have clearly shown that it is not possible for the Council to adopt an outcome that the US, Israel’s key ally at the Council, does not largely support. 

Overall, the US has vetoed four draft resolutions on the war since it started on 7 October 2023. The US also vetoed a draft resolution that would have recommended that the State of Palestine be admitted to membership in the UN. China and Russia vetoed two US-proposed draft resolutions on the war, in both cases accompanied by the negative vote of the Arab member of the Council (the United Arab Emirates in 2023 and Algeria in 2024). 

These political divisions have widened following Trump’s return to office and the resurgence of hostilities in Gaza. The majority of Council members have called on both parties to uphold their obligations under international law, seeking a resumption of the ceasefire, restoration of humanitarian access, and the immediate and unconditional release of all remaining hostages. The US, however, has blamed the collapse of the ceasefire solely on Hamas’ rejection of its extension proposals and has expressed support for Israel’s renewed military operation.  

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UN DOCUMENTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST, INCLUDING THE PALESTINIAN QUESTION
 
Security Council Resolutions
10 June 2024S/RES/2735 This resolution on the war between Israel and Hamas welcomes the ceasefire proposal announced by US President Joe Biden on 31 May 2024. The resolution was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia).
25 March 2024S/RES/2728 This resolution demanded an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan leading to a lasting sustainable ceasefire. It also demanded the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. It was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (US).
22 December 2023S/RES/2720 This resolution requested the Secretary-General to appoint a Senior Humanitarian and Reconstruction Coordinator tasked with establishing a UN mechanism for accelerating humanitarian consignments to Gaza. It was adopted with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (Russia and the US).
23 December 2016S/RES/2334 This resolution condemned Israeli settlements and called for immediate steps to prevent violence against civilians, including acts of terror. It was adopted with 14 votes in favour and a US abstention.

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