April 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 31 March 2025
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AFRICA

Libya

Expected Council Action  

In April, the Security Council will hold its bimonthly briefing on the situation in Libya. Special Representative and Head of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Hanna Tetteh will brief the Council on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country and the Secretary-General’s latest report on UNSMIL.

Additionally, the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee might brief on the Committee’s activities. (At the time of writing, the chair had not yet been appointed, as Council members continue to negotiate this year’s allocation of subsidiary bodies).

Key Recent Developments    

The political impasse in Libya continues between the UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU), based in Tripoli and led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah with advisory support from the High State Council (HSC), and the eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS), led by Prime Minister Osama Hamad and backed by the House of Representatives (HoR) and the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) under the command of General Khalifa Haftar. The parties remain deadlocked over proposed legislation to hold national elections that would reconcile the country’s divided government. A key point of contention concerns the formation of a unified interim government to organise the elections, a move favoured by the GNS and HoR but opposed by the GNU and some segments of the HSC. The prolonged stalemate between the rival governments—which has persisted since the indefinite postponement of the 2021 elections—is one of the root causes of Libya’s political, security, and economic instability.

On 4 February, UNSMIL announced the establishment of the Advisory Committee to address outstanding issues hindering the holding of elections in Libya. The Committee is composed of a diverse group of Libyan personalities, whose selection was based on several criteria, including expertise in legal, constitutional, and electoral issues; the ability to build compromise; and an understanding of the political challenges facing Libya.

UNSMIL has clarified that the Committee’s role is advisory, rather than decision-making, and its mandate is time-bound. The Committee is expected to provide proposals to UNSMIL for consideration in the next phase of the political process, while UNSMIL will facilitate communication between the Committee and relevant institutions.

At the time of writing, the Committee had held five meetings, including a meeting with the members of the joint 6+6 Committee. This Committee was established by the HoR and the GNU-aligned High State Council (HSC) to draft electoral laws to enable elections, comprising six representatives from each body.

Newly appointed Special Representative Hanna Tetteh officially began her duties on 20 February. In a statement issued the same day, she committed to lead UN mediation efforts in line with resolution 2755 of 31 October 2024, which last renewed UNSMIL’s mandate. Emphasising the importance of Libyan-led and Libyan-owned solutions, Tetteh said that UNSMIL will engage with diverse Libyan communities and work with regional and international actors to support national unity and stability. She also affirmed UNSMIL’s commitment to enabling inclusive elections and fostering a shared vision for Libya’s future.

During the Council’s most recent briefing on the situation in Libya, held on 19 February, Council members were unanimous in welcoming the appointment of Tetteh, while many members expressed their support for the establishment of the Advisory Committee. In her briefing, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo highlighted the stalled political process, economic issues, human rights violations, and security threats. DiCarlo emphasised the urgent need for progress and noted that UNSMIL is taking steps to revive the political process based on inclusivity and national ownership.

On 18 January, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Osama Elmasry Njeem, suspected of crimes against humanity and war crimes in Libya from February 2015 onward. Njeem allegedly oversaw Tripoli prison facilities, where thousands were murdered, tortured, raped, and subjected to sexual violence. On 19 January, Italian authorities arrested Njeem in Turin, Italy. However, on 21 January, the Rome Court of Appeal (that is, an Italian appellate court) ordered his release due to a procedural error. That same day, Italy returned Njeem to Libya, citing security concerns. The ICC claims Italian authorities failed to notify them of any warrant issues. As a result of the incident, Italian prosecutors have launched an investigation into Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and two ministers concerning the repatriation of Njeem to Libya despite the ICC warrant for his arrest.

Libya is not a state party to the Rome Statute of the ICC. The Security Council referred the situation in Libya to the ICC through the unanimous adoption of resolution 1970 on 26 February 2011, which invited the ICC Prosecutor to update the Council every six months. The ICC has jurisdiction over crimes listed in the Rome Statute committed on Libya’s territory or by its nationals from 15 February 2011 onwards.

Key Issues and Options    

The key issue for the Council remains supporting political progress towards national elections to unify Libya’s divided government. One of the core objectives for the Council is to help foster common political ground between the country’s rival governments to reach an inclusive agreement on electoral laws, including the possible establishment of a unified interim government to organise the elections.

April’s briefing will provide Council members with an opportunity to learn about preparations for and the implementation of UNSMIL’s revitalised efforts to facilitate dialogue between Libyan political stakeholders. In this regard, Council members will likely be interested to hear more about the work of the Advisory Committee from Tetteh.

To demonstrate the Council’s continued support for the mission’s intensified engagement under Tetteh’s leadership, members could consider issuing a press statement expressing support for the Special Representative and the efforts of the Advisory Committee. They could also consider holding a closed Arria-formula meeting with representatives of the rival governments for a frank discussion on potential ways to break the long-standing political impasse.

Council Dynamics 

Council members remain united on the need for a Libyan-led, inclusive political process resulting in elections that will help to restore political, security, and economic stability to the country. They also remain broadly supportive of the UN’s mediation role towards this end.

At the most recent briefing in Libya in February, many Council members welcomed the establishment of the Advisory Committee. Russia appeared more sceptical, however. It referred to the Committee as an ambiguous proposal created without consulting Council members. Russia expressed concerns about its inclusiveness and impartiality, emphasising that its work should be coordinated with key Libyan stakeholders

More broadly, geopolitical tensions influence Council dynamics with respect to Libya. Several Western members remain concerned about Russia’s growing presence in the eastern part of the country under Haftar’s control, which has reportedly accelerated as Russia has transferred military assets from Syria following the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. For its part, Russia routinely blames Libya’s current instability on the NATO-led military intervention in 2011 and accuses Western countries of seeking to exploit Libya’s oil reserves for economic gain.

The UK is the penholder on Libya.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA

Security Council Resolution
16 January 2025S/RES/2769 This resolution renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee until 15 May 2026 and the authorisation of measures related to the illicit export of petroleum from Libya until 1 May 2026.
Secretary-General’s Report
10 December 2024S/2024/895 This was the 120-day report on UNSMIL.
Security Council Meeting Record
19 February 2025S/PV.9862 This was was a briefing on the situation in Libya.

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