March 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 March 2025
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MIDDLE EAST

Yemen

Expected Council Action

In March, the Security Council will hold its monthly briefing and consultations on Yemen. UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg (via videoconference), a representative of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and a civil society representative are expected to brief.

The mandate of the UN Mission to Support the Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA) expires on 14 July.

Key Recent Developments

Yemen continues to face immense challenges on the political, security, and humanitarian fronts. The reaction of the Yemeni Houthi rebel group to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza—which involved attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea and on Israeli territory—has stalled the intra-Yemeni political process, degraded the country’s security and humanitarian environment, and raised doubts about the overall prospects for peace.

Following the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas that went into effect on 19 January, the Houthis ceased their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and on targets in Israel. This pause in hostilities and the release on 22 January of the MV Galaxy Leader crew—whom the Houthis had detained in November 2023—were welcomed as de-escalatory steps by Council members during their most recent meeting on Yemen on 13 February. The fragility of the Gaza ceasefire, however, coupled with a lack of predictability as to how the Houthis may react to regional developments, continue to contribute to a general sense of insecurity, particularly on the question of maritime security in the Red Sea.

Furthermore, the Houthis’ arbitrary detention of the UN, non-governmental organisations (NGO), civil society, and diplomatic mission personnel has undermined trust and efforts to advance the Yemeni peace process while also impacting the country’s humanitarian situation. Since May 2024, the Houthis have detained over 50 such personnel. In late January, the group detained eight additional UN personnel, one of whom—a World Food Programme (WFP) staff member—died in detention on 10 February. That same day, the UN decided to temporarily pause all operations and programmes in the Sa’ada governate—where six of the recently detained personnel had been working—citing the erosion of the “necessary security conditions and guarantees” for the UN to operate in the area. On 11 February, the Secretary-General issued a statement that strongly condemned the death of the WFP staff member and called for an “immediate, transparent and thorough” investigation into the circumstances leading to it.

In a 13 February press statement, Security Council members also condemned the death of the WFP staff member and the ongoing detentions by the Houthis, demanding the immediate and unconditional release of all those detained. The statement further expressed Council members’ grave concern about the deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Yemen and the risk to the delivery of essential humanitarian assistance, demanding that the Houthis ensure safe, rapid, and unimpeded humanitarian access. Council members also emphasised that the humanitarian situation will continue to deteriorate in the absence of a political solution to the Yemeni conflict and expressed their support for Grundberg’s mediation efforts in this regard.

With the political process deadlocked, the security situation in Yemen remains a concern. In his 13 February Council briefing, Grundberg warned of rising tensions in Yemen and referred to the reported deployment of military reinforcements to the frontlines. He called on the parties to refrain from “military posturing and retaliatory measures that could lead to further tension and risk plunging Yemen back into conflict” and cautioned that those who seek the “resumption of full-scale military operations” would contribute to instability in Yemen and the wider region.

On 22 January, US President Donald Trump designated the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO), citing the need to prevent attacks on US personnel and civilians, US partners, and maritime shipping in the Red Sea. In January 2021, during his last presidency, Trump had designated the Houthis as an FTO, a decision that was reversed by Biden as soon as he took office. Under US law, an FTO designation authorises sanctions on entities that provide the designated group with “material support”, and the executive order designating the Houthis referred to the support allegedly provided to the group by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force.

In his 13 February briefing to the Council, Tom Fletcher, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, urged Council members not to make political or security decisions that hinder civilian access to essential services and commodities. Stressing that Yemenis are on the “precipice of disaster”, Fletcher highlighted the severe challenges that OCHA described in its 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) for the country. Among other issues, Fletcher emphasised the risks faced by children who are suffering high mortality rates, malnourishment, and lack of access to vaccinations and education. He also urged the Council to guarantee protection for humanitarian workers and to scale up funding for humanitarian efforts. The HNRP calls for $2.47 billion to provide assistance and protection services to the most vulnerable populations.

Key Issues and Options

De-escalating tensions in Yemen and the Red Sea and relaunching the stalled intra-Yemeni political process remain overarching priorities for the Security Council. If the Gaza ceasefire continues to hold and progresses to the next phase, Council members may seek to take advantage of the Houthis’ concurrent pause in Red Sea hostilities and their attacks on Israel to encourage further de-escalation and a resumption of dialogue between the Houthis and the Yemeni government towards a nationwide ceasefire and a political settlement. One option for the Council in this regard would be to issue a presidential statement or press statement encouraging the Houthis to avoid escalations and Yemeni parties to preserve the progress made in 2022 and 2023—during which they signed and largely sustained a truce—and resume concrete discussions on establishing a roadmap under UN auspices for inclusive peace in the country.

A related issue is the impact the continued threat of possible attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea has had on the freedom of navigation, global supply chains, and the provision of humanitarian aid in Yemen. An option would be to hold an informal interactive dialogue with regional countries to discuss the importance of maritime security, freedom of navigation, stability of supply chains, and safety of seafarers.

Council members may also seek to address the country’s deepening humanitarian crisis by encouraging the parties to remove obstacles impeding the delivery of humanitarian aid and by urging member states to mobilise funding to meet the requirements of the HNRP, including through a potential pledging conference.

Council Dynamics

Council members are largely aligned on support for an intra-Yemeni political process, the need to improve humanitarian conditions in Yemen, and on their calls for the Houthis to cease further attacks in the Red Sea. Many members have expressed hope that the ceasefire in Gaza can provide the momentum, conditions, and space to relaunch dialogue and resume the peace process under UN auspices. Advancing mediation efforts towards the establishment of a roadmap to this end remains a mutual priority. In light of increasing reports of escalatory rhetoric and military posturing, some Council members raised concerns during the 13 February Council meeting about the potential for further instability.

Nevertheless, Council members have divergent views on what is fuelling the political stalemate and insecurity in Yemen. In Council meetings, Algeria, China, Pakistan, and Russia have stressed that the situation in Yemen and the Red Sea cannot be discussed in isolation from the situation in the occupied Palestinian territory, and some have directly blamed Israel for instability in the region. Russia has also accused the UK and the US of undermining security in Yemen through their retaliatory strikes on the Houthis. On the other hand, the P3 members (France, the UK, and the US) have been critical of Iran’s role in supporting the Houthis, including militarily.

The US’ designation of the Houthis as an FTO appears to signal a shift in how the US will approach the situation in Yemen, adopting a more forceful position that is likely to have repercussions on Yemen’s political, security and humanitarian fronts. The Houthis have reportedly mobilised forces towards Marib—a province controlled by the Yemeni government that holds oil and gas resources that could gain importance in the event of any shortages caused by the sanctions.

During the 13 February Council meeting, the US stressed that the FTO designation was an important step to respond to the Houthis’ threat to civilians and regional stability and criticised Iran for enabling the attacks. Yemen welcomed the listing and expressed hope that it would promote efforts to achieve peace. On the other hand, Russia criticised the decision for potentially having a negative impact on mediation efforts to relaunch the political process. Additionally, the FTO designation may impact humanitarian operations in Yemen and the country’s already vulnerable civilian population. Aid organisations have criticised the move, saying that it would exacerbate Yemen’s humanitarian crisis and strain the country’s economy, given its heavy reliance on imports for food, fuel, and medicine, a concern which was also raised by some Council members during their last meeting on Yemen.

Furthermore, Council members may have increasing concerns regarding a lack of funding addressing the dire humanitarian crisis in Yemen, which may have grown in light of the recent US Agency for International Development (USAID) suspensions. In 2024, USAID disbursed approximately $620 million to Yemen, $580 million of which was for humanitarian assistance.

The UK is the penholder on Yemen.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN

Security Council Press Statements
13 February 2025SC/15995 This was a press statement on Houthi Detention of United Nations, International Non-governmental Organization Workers.
Security Council Meeting Records
13 February 2025S/PV.9858 This was a Security Council meeting on Yemen.

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