March 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 March 2025
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ASIA

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action

In March, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). UNAMA’s current mandate expires on 17 March.

The Council is also scheduled to convene for its quarterly open briefing on Afghanistan. Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNAMA Roza Otunbayeva and a representative of civil society are expected to brief. Closed consultations are scheduled to follow the briefing.

Key Recent Developments

Afghanistan continues to grapple with one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world. According to the 2025 Afghanistan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP), 22.9 million Afghans will require humanitarian assistance this year, including 21 million lacking adequate water and sanitation, 14.8 million facing acute food insecurity, 14.3 million experiencing limited access to healthcare, and 7.8 million women and children requiring nutrition assistance. The HNRP also notes that stagnation in Afghanistan’s economy, which has contracted by approximately one-third since the Taliban seized power in August 2021, has contributed to widespread unemployment, underemployment, household debt, and poverty that affects around 48 percent of the population and severely restricts their ability to afford goods and services.

Despite the scale of this crisis, the humanitarian response in Afghanistan has struggled to attract funding. OCHA’s 2024 Afghanistan HNRP, which called for $3.06 billion, was only 51.8 percent funded by the end of last year. In January, the World Food Programme (WFP) reported that it had been unable to provide rations to roughly half of the Afghans in acute need of food during winter because of funding cuts.

Efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis have also been affected by the policies and practices of the Taliban. The 2025 HNRP notes that the “Law on the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice”, which was promulgated by the Taliban in late August 2024, is likely to continue impacting humanitarian operations and indicates that “restrictive policies, bureaucratic and administrative impediments related to project registration and efforts to influence project design and implementation” have complicated the operational environment for humanitarian actors.

The human rights situation in Afghanistan remains dire, particularly for women and girls. According to UNAMA’s latest report on this issue, Taliban officials have continued to implement the “Law on the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice” in ways which discriminate against women and girls and impact their human rights and fundamental freedoms, including by imposing additional restrictions that are not outlined in the decree. The report also highlights other human rights violations, such as the use of corporal punishment, restrictions on freedom of expression, and gender-based violence.

In late December 2024, the Taliban’s Ministry of Economy announced that any non-governmental organisations which fail to comply with a December 2022 decree prohibiting them from employing Afghan women will have their licences revoked. (For more information on the December 2022 decree, see our 12 January 2023 What’s in Blue story.) In a 31 December 2024 statement, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk expressed alarm regarding the announcement and reiterated his call for the Taliban to reverse the decree.

On 27 December 2024, Council members issued a press statement on Afghanistan. Among other matters, the press statement expressed deep concern regarding the negative impact of the Taliban’s policies that restrict the human rights and fundamental freedoms of women and girls and urged the Taliban to reverse these practices, including the “Law on the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice” and the December 2024 directive preventing women and girls from attending classes at medical institutions. It further underscored the importance of dialogue, consultation, and engagement among all Afghan stakeholders, including through the Doha process convened by the UN, and emphasised the importance of developing a political roadmap.

Signs of disunity among the Taliban’s leadership have also emerged in recent weeks. In mid-January, Taliban Deputy Foreign Minister Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai publicly criticised the ban on girls’ education, reportedly saying that it does not align with Islamic law and calling for a change in policy.

Terrorism continues to pose a serious threat in Afghanistan. On 11 February, dozens of people were killed and injured by a suicide bombing near a bank in Kunduz. The attack, which was claimed by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-Khorasan (ISIL-K)—ISIL’s Afghan affiliate—was condemned by Council members in a 12 February press statement. China authored the press statement.

The 6 February report of the Monitoring Team assisting the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL/Da’esh Sanctions Committee says that ISIL-K has been assessed as posing the “greatest extraregional terrorist threat” and notes that the group has conducted attacks in Europe and is actively seeking to recruit members from Central Asian states. The report also indicates that there are more than two dozen terrorist groups operating in Afghanistan that pose “a serious challenge to the stability of the country, as well as to the security of Central Asian and other neighbouring states”.

Against this backdrop, the Taliban has continued to seek closer ties with member states. On 8 January, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai. Following the meeting, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs issued a statement noting that the discussions covered humanitarian assistance programmes, Afghanistan’s developmental needs, and the use of Chabahar port for trade and commercial activities, among other matters. On 26 January, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Taliban officials, including Muttaqi, in Kabul. The discussions reportedly focused on tensions on the border between Afghanistan and Iran, Afghan refugees in Iran, and water rights. On 22 December 2024, Saudi Arabia announced that it would reopen its embassy in Kabul for the first time since August 2021.

Tensions between Pakistan and the Taliban have risen significantly in recent months. In a 26 December 2024 post on X, UNAMA said that it had “received credible reports that dozens of civilians, including women and children, were killed in airstrikes by Pakistan’s military forces” in Paktika province on 24 December 2024 and called for an investigation into the incident. Several media outlets have reported that the strikes targeted Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), citing Pakistani security officials. On 28 December 2024, the Taliban announced that it had attacked several targets inside Pakistan in retaliation for the airstrikes.

In early February, Pakistani authorities threatened to deport Afghan refugees awaiting relocation if their cases are not processed quickly by potential host states and ordered those living in Islamabad and surrounding areas to move elsewhere within Pakistan by 31 March.

On 31 January, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction issued a report on the frozen assets belonging to Afghanistan’s central bank. The report argued that the Taliban has no legal right to the assets and indicated that the administration of US President Donald Trump may want to examine returning nearly $4 billion earmarked for Afghanistan to the “custody and control” of the US government.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 23 January, International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Karim Asad Ahmad Khan announced that his office had filed applications for arrest warrants for Taliban Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and Taliban Chief Justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani, saying that there are reasonable grounds to believe that both men “bear criminal responsibility for the crime against humanity of persecution on gender grounds”. On 24 January, a group of independent human rights experts appointed by the Human Rights Council issued a statement welcoming the request.

Women, Peace and Security

On 23 January, the Informal Experts Group (IEG) on Women, Peace and Security (WPS) met on the situation in Afghanistan. Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General (Political) for Afghanistan Georgette Gagnon briefed. According to the summary of the meeting (S/2025/119), circulated on 13 February by Denmark and Sierra Leone as the IEG co-chairs, together with the UK, the penholder on WPS, the situation of women and girls in Afghanistan has continued to deteriorate. Among other issues, Gagnon and Council members discussed restrictions and violations of the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan, engagement with the de facto authorities by UNAMA and Afghan women, as well as sexual and gender-based violence. IEG members inquired about decrees, edicts, and laws restricting women’s rights; the challenges faced by UNAMA in implementing its mandate with regard to the rights of women and girls; as well as women’s participation and the inclusion of women’s rights in the Doha process.

UN Women, as the IEG Secretariat, recommended that, in its consideration of UNAMA’s mandate, the Security Council retain all existing gender-related language from resolution 2626, which renewed UNAMA’s mandate in March 2022, and call for its full implementation. UN Women also recommended that the Council demand women’s meaningful participation in all diplomatic efforts regarding Afghanistan, condemn the new restrictions imposed on women and girls by the de facto authorities, and demand that humanitarian service providers are able to conduct their work safely and without discrimination on the basis of gender. UN Women further recommended that Council members request detailed information from international partners on women’s participation in relevant diplomatic engagements on Afghanistan and on the inclusion of women’s rights in the agendas of such events. It also recommended committing a minimum of 30 percent of all funding for Afghanistan to initiatives focused on gender equality and women’s rights, including long-term, flexible funding to women-led organisations.

Key Issues and Options

The renewal of UNAMA’s mandate is a key priority for the Security Council in March. The Council will need to decide whether to extend the mission’s mandate for another year without making any changes to its priorities and tasks or if there is a need to adjust the mandate. It seems that Council members generally consider the mission’s mandate to be sufficiently robust, although there may be differences over whether to include preambular language on certain issues, such as human rights.

The Taliban’s continuing refusal to adhere to many of Afghanistan’s international obligations, especially those relating to women and girls, is a major issue for the Council and directly contradicts the recommendations outlined in the report of the independent assessment on Afghanistan requested by resolution 2679 of 16 March 2023 and the related Doha process. (For more information on the independent assessment, see our 27 November 20238 December 2023, and 28 December 2023 What’s in Blue stories.) Council members could ask for an informal meeting with representatives of the Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA) and UNAMA to discuss how to proceed in light of the Taliban’s actions. Members could use this meeting to ask questions about particular aspects of the independent assessment recommendations, including the roadmap for political engagement. They could also ask for an update on next steps in relation to the Doha process and the activities of the working groups on counter-narcotics and the private sector that participants in the third Doha meeting agreed to establish in mid-2024. The working groups held virtual meetings on 12 and 13 February, respectively.

The terrorist threat in Afghanistan is also a major concern for the Council. Members could request a meeting with a counter-terrorism expert to discuss possible options for responding to this threat. Members may also wish to consider whether any of the terrorist groups currently operating in Afghanistan that are not included on the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL/Da’esh Sanctions List satisfy the listing criteria and whether there is a need to submit a listing request to the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL/Da’esh and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee.

The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is another significant issue. During the Council’s last open briefing on Afghanistan in December 2024, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher called for the Council to support efforts to reduce aid obstruction and restrictive measures. Members could hold an informal meeting with humanitarian actors to discuss possible steps that the Council could take in this regard.

Council Dynamics

Although Council members are generally united in their desire to see a prosperous, peaceful Afghanistan free from terrorism and ruled by an inclusive government, they are divided over how to achieve this goal. Some members, including the P3 (France, the UK, and the US) and other like-minded states, have previously argued that the Taliban must adhere to international norms in order to obtain international recognition and receive economic and development aid from the international community.

China and Russia, on the other hand, have contended that the international community should provide assistance to Afghanistan without linking it to other issues, such as human rights, and appear to prefer dialogue and engagement without any increased pressure. Russia has reportedly decided to remove the Taliban from its list of designated terrorist organisations and, in December 2024, the lower house of Russia’s parliament approved a bill intended to pave the way for such a move.

The divide among Council members has been evident during recent negotiations concerning Council products. During the negotiations on the 27 December 2024 press statement, China apparently expressed initial opposition and suggested that it would not participate in negotiations, however it later engaged on the text after Russia provided comments. In addition, it seems that some members, including France, pushed for the inclusion of stronger language on WPS and human rights in the text.

Council members have not been able to agree on the penholdership on the Afghanistan file since Japan—which held the pen in 2024—ended its two-year Council term in December 2024. Two pairs of Council members have indicated that they are willing to work together as co-penholders­—China and Pakistan on the one hand, and the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the US on the other. Members held closed consultations to discuss this issue on 10 February, following a request from Algeria.

This disagreement appears to have complicated the negotiations concerning the renewal of UNAMA’s mandate. In early February, China and Pakistan proposed a draft resolution on the renewal of the mandate. This was followed by the ROK and the US presenting an alternative text the next day. It seems that neither draft proposed substantive changes to UNAMA’s mandate, and that the difference between the two texts was the inclusion of preambular language on human rights and other issues in the ROK/US draft and a change to UNAMA’s reporting cycle in the China/Pakistan draft. On 21 February, China, in its capacity as Security Council president in February, presented a consolidated text combining some elements of the two drafts. At the time of writing, it appears that Council members have agreed to work on this consolidated draft.

Next month’s quarterly meeting will mark the first time that new Council members Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia deliver statements on Afghanistan since joining the Council in January. Pakistan, which regularly participated in meetings on UNAMA under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure prior to joining the Council, is expected to be particularly active on the file moving forward.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN

Security Council Resolutions
17 March 2024S/RES/2727 This resolution extended the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) until 17 March 2025.

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