February 2025 Monthly Forecast

Status Update since our January Forecast 

Middle East, including the Palestinian Question 

On 3 January, the Security Council convened for a briefing under “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9830) agenda item. The meeting was called by Algeria to discuss Israel’s attacks against hospitals in Gaza. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk and the World Health Organisation representative for the Occupied Palestinian Territory, Rik Peeperkorn, briefed. Tanya Haj-Hassan, a medical practitioner at Medical Aid for Palestinians, also briefed.  

On 17 January, Security Council members received a briefing in closed consultations on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”. Algeria requested the meeting to discuss the situation of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini briefed. 

On 20 January, the Security Council held its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9841). UN Secretary-General António Guterres briefed. Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Attaf chaired the meeting.

On 23 January, the Security Council held an open briefing on the situation of children in Gaza under “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” agenda item (S/PV.9846). Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher briefed. Bisan Nateel, a representative from the Tamer Institute for Community Education, also briefed.  

 On 28 January, Council members convened for an open briefing on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question”, focused on UNRWA. Lazzarini and the Secretary General of the Norwegian Refugee Council, Jan Egeland, briefed (S/PV.9852).  

Lebanon 

On 13 January, Council members held closed consultations on the situation in Lebanon. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed.  

On 16 January, the Security Council adopted a presidential statement on Lebanon (S/PRST/2025/1). The presidential statement welcomed the election of the President of the Republic of Lebanon Joseph Aoun and the designation of Nawaf Salam as Prime Minister. It also welcomed the 29 November 2024 cessation of hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon (S/2024/870), expressed concern about reported violations, and called for all violations of the arrangement to stop. 

Arria-formula Meeting on Commercial Spyware 

On 14 January, the US convened an Arria-formula meeting on the implications of the proliferation and misuse of commercial spyware on the maintenance of international peace and security. The meeting was co-sponsored by Council members France, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the UK, together with Australia, Austria, Canada, Estonia, Finland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, and Sweden. Briefings were delivered by John Scott-Railton, senior researcher at the Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto, which investigates digital espionage targeting civil society, among other issues; Shane Huntley, senior director at Google’s Threat Analysis Group, which focuses on detecting, analysing, and disrupting government-backed threats against Google and its users; and Julia Gavarrete, a Salvadoran journalist specialising in political issues, migration, and human rights, who has been the target of spyware attacks. 

Cyprus  

On 16 January, the Council held consultations on the situation in Cyprus. Special Representative and Head of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) Colin Stewart briefed the Council on the recent developments and key findings from two Secretary-General’s reports on UNFICYP: the semi-annual report on UNFICYP (S/2025/6), and the report on his good offices in Cyprus (S/2025/7)

On 15 January, Security Council members met in closed consultations to discuss the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). France, the penholder on the DRC, requested the meeting after the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) circulated a white note to Council members on 9 January describing developments in eastern DRC, particularly the recent offensive by the Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) rebel group in North Kivu province, the epicentre of the conflict in eastern DRC. Special Representative of the Secretary-General in the DRC and Head of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) Bintou Keita briefed the Council via videoconference (VTC). The Council met again to discuss the situation in the DRC
on 26 January (S/PV. 9849) and 28 January (S/PV.9853).

UNIFIL and UNDOF  

On 17 January, the Security Council held a briefing (S/PV.9840) on the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). Russia requested the meeting to address the latest developments in the respective areas of operations, including the challenges peacekeepers face in carrying out their mandates. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and Head of the UN Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO) and Interim Head of UNDOF Major General Patrick Gauchat briefed via videoconference (VTC). Israel, Lebanon, and Syria participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

Ukraine  

On 13 January, the UK—with co-sponsorship from Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, and the US—convened an Arria-formula meeting, titled “Violations of international humanitarian law against Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilian detainees”. The briefers included: Pablo de Greiff, a member of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry (COI) on Ukraine; Valerii Horishnii, a former prisoner of war, senior sergeant, and instructor at Ukraine’s National Guard, who fought in the 2022 battle of Mariupol and spent two years in Russian captivity; Nariman Dzhelyal, a Crimean Tatar journalist and activist who was sentenced in September 2022 to 17 years in prison by the Russian-controlled “Supreme Court of Crimea” in connection with an alleged gas pipeline sabotage case and was subsequently returned to Ukraine in June 2024; and Maksym Butkevych, a Ukrainian human rights defender, journalist, civic activist, and military serviceman, who was held in Russian captivity for over two years and, in March 2023, was sentenced to 13 years in a penal colony. He was returned to Ukraine in October 2024. 

On 16 January, the Council held a briefing on Ukraine (S/PV.9839). Slovenia and the US—the co-penholders on political issues in Ukraine—requested the meeting to receive a general update on developments. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed the Council. The representatives of Estonia, Poland, Romania, and Ukraine participated in the meeting under rule 37.   

On 24 January, Russia convened an Arria-formula meeting on Ukraine, titled “Beyond the Battlefield: Atrocities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Against Civilians”. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia (Russia) delivered the opening remarks. The briefers, who participated via videoconference, were: Maxim Grigoriev, member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation; Thomas Röper, a German journalist; and two residents of Selydove, Vladimir Romanenko and Vladimir Pogorelov, who were described in the concept note prepared by Russia for the meeting as “victim[s] of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”. 

League of Arab States 

On 23 January, the Security Council held a briefing on “Cooperation between the Security Council and the League of Arab States” (S/PV.9845). The briefers were: Mohamed Khaled Khiari, the Assistant Secretary-General for Middle East, Asia and the Pacific, and Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States (LAS). Algeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ahmed Attaf, chaired the meeting.  

Counter-Terrorism  

On 21 January, the Council held an open debate on counter-terrorism in Africa under the agenda item “Maintenance of international peace and security” (S/PV.9842 and S/PV.9842 Resumption I). The meeting resumed and was completed on 24 January (S/PV.9842 Resumption II).  Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Attaf chaired the first part of the meeting, which was one of Algeria’s signature events for its presidency. Deputy Secretary-General Amina J Mohammed; African Union (AU) Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Bankole Adeoye; and former UN and AU official Said Djinnit briefed. 45 member states participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. Permanent Observer of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to the UN Kinza Aby Jawara-N’Jai, Head of the EU Delegation to the European Union (EU) Stavros Lambrinidis, and Deputy Special Representative of the International Criminal Police Organisation (INTERPOL) to the UN Dominique Bahorera also participated in the meeting under rule 39 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

On 24 January, the Council adopted a presidential statement on counter-terrorism (S/PRST/2025/2). The presidential statement was proposed by Algeria in connection with its signature event on counter-terrorism in Africa. 

On 24 January, Council members also issued a press statement condemning terrorist attacks carried out by Al-Qaida affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) in the Point Triple area in Benin on 8 January (SC/15980).  

Haiti 

On 22 January, the Council received its regular quarterly briefing (S/PV.9844) from Special Representative and Head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) María Isabel Salvador on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country and on the Secretary-General’s latest report on BINUH (S/2025/28). UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) Executive Director Ghada Fathi Waly also briefed. Canada (on behalf of the Economic and Social Council Ad Hoc Advisory Group on Haiti), Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Kenya, and Suriname (on behalf of the Caribbean Community) participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

Colombia   

On 22 January, the Security Council held an open briefing on Colombia (S/PV.9843). Special Representative and Head of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu briefed on recent developments and the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on the mission (S/2024/968). The Council was also briefed by Armando Wouriyu Valbuena, a representative of the Special High-Level Instance for Ethnic Groups (IEANPE). The IEANPE was created by the 2016 Final Agreement for Ending the Conflict and Building a Stable and Lasting Peace between the government of Colombia and the former rebel group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo (FARC-EP) to monitor the implementation of provisions related to the agreement’s ethnic chapter. Diego Tovar, a former FARC-EP combatant and signatory to the 2016 peace agreement, participated in the meeting under rule 39 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

International Court of Justice  

On 24 January, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2770, which fixed 27 May as the date for the election to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of the former President of the ICJ, Judge Nawaf Salam.  

Myanmar 

On 30 January, Council members held closed consultations on Myanmar. The meeting was requested by the UK, the penholder on the file. Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on Myanmar Julie Bishop and Head of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Geneva and Director of the Coordination Division Ramesh Rajasingham briefed. 

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