February 2025 Monthly Forecast

Multilateralism 

Expected Council Action 

In February, China plans to convene an open debate on “Practicing Multilateralism, Reforming and Improving Global Governance”, which will be the signature event of its presidency. The meeting will be chaired by China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to brief.  

No outcome is planned. 

Key Recent Developments 

Over the past decade, several Council members have chosen to convene signature events during their presidencies that focus on multilateralism. These include, for example, meetings on:  

Uncharacteristically for a Council meeting, there were no briefers at the most recent of these meetings in July 2024. However, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov commenced the meeting with a statement in which he asserted that international law—including the UN Charter and Security Council resolutions—are interpreted by the collective West in a perverse and selective manner”. Lavrov similarly claimed that the “notorious rules-based international order” is designed to serve Washington’s interests, representing a threat to multilateralism.   

In September 2024, world leaders adopted the Pact for the Future. The document, agreed through intergovernmental negotiations led by Germany and Namibia, is meant to adapt international cooperation and institutions to today’s realities and the challenges of the future. In one section on “Transforming Global Governance”, member states commit to “action to strengthen and reinvigorate multilateralism and deepen international cooperation”. They resolve to make the multilateral system more “just, democratic, equitable and representative of today’s world” by giving all member states, especially those from the developing world, a greater voice in global decision-making. In this regard, they call for structural reform of the Security Council with greater representation “of… underrepresented and unrepresented regions and groups”, including the Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and especially Africa. Further, they commit to reforming the international financial architecture to enhance the representation of developing countries and garner enhanced funds to support sustainable development goals.  

Key Issues and Options 

A key issue is how to utilise the open debate to generate concrete ideas for strengthening the multilateral system with the Security Council at the centre of its peace and security architecture. At a time of shifting power dynamics and different approaches to global governance institutions between the global north and south, there is a need to come to a common understanding of how to address the evolving nature of conflict and its impact on the multilateral system. 

In order to do so, Council members may need to focus on ways of building greater trust. As the Secretary-General noted in A New Agenda for Peace—his July 2023 policy paper presenting ideas for member states to prevent conflict and advance peacethe lack of trust and cooperation among member states, including the major powers, is a key obstacle to a more peaceful international system. In this regard, it might be helpful if the permanent members of the Security Council met more regularly on an informal level to reduce tensions among themselves. They could also hold more frequent meetings with the Secretary-General. While the Secretary-General meets monthly with the elected members, the meetings with the permanent members appear to have dwindled in recent years. More informal meetings among all 15 members (for example, using the “sofa talks” format) could also help build trust.  

Although different views on multilateralism in the Council may be an obstacle, an option for the Council would be to consider a presidential statement that: 

An additional option could be for China to produce a chair’s summary capturing the major themes of the open debate. 

Council Dynamics 

The theme of this open debate is reminiscent of signature events that China has convened during some of its previous Council presidencies, including in February 2015, November 2018 and May 2021. It comes at a time of significant geo-political tension among the major powers, and the recent return to the US presidency of Donald Trump, who has already announced the withdrawal of the US from the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement since assuming office on 20 January.   

Contrasting views regarding the nature of the multilateral system, how it functions, and which countries adhere to the values of the UN Charter are likely to be on display during the open debate. In this regard, China and Russia have maintained that the “rules-based international order” to which Western countries refer is a façade for the selfish pursuit of their strategic interests. They maintain that the US and other Western states adhere to international law only when it is convenient and beneficial for them to do so. At the same time, many member states continue to see Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing conflict there as a violation of a core tenet of the UN Charter, the prohibition of the use of force against the territorial integrity of states, as outlined in Article 2 (4). 

Members also have different perspectives on the use of some of the Council’s tools, including peacekeeping and sanctions. China and Russia tend to emphasise the importance of extending state authority and promoting security sector reform in peacekeeping mandates. While valuing the importance of these issues, several other members highlight women’s participation in peace processes, the relationship between climate change and security, and the promotion of human rights in peacekeeping mandates. 

The sanctions divide is particularly stark between Western countries, on the one hand, and China, Russia, and African countries, on the other. Western countries often maintain that UN arms embargoes and targeted sanctions, such as assets freezes and travel bans, are vital tools in mitigating violence and supporting the implementation of peace agreements. While China, Russia, and the Council’s African members recognise that sanctions can be a useful Council tool, they often argue that sanctions are employed in a punitive, unconstructive manner and that they are insufficiently adjusted to account for progress on the ground. Furthermore, China and Russia have been highly critical of the use of unliteral sanctions—that is, economic measures imposed by one state or group of states to compel a policy change in another state, including through national sanctions regimes.  

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UN Documents on Multilateralism 
 

Security Council Meeting Records
16 July 2024S/PV.9686 This was an open debate on “Multilateral cooperation in the interest of a more just, democratic and sustainable world order”.
24 April 2023S/PV.9308 This was a ministerial-level open debate on “Effective multilateralism through the defense of the principles of the UN Charter”.
14 December 2022S/PV.9220 This was an open debate titled “New Orientation for Reformed Multilateralism” under the agenda item “Maintenance of international peace and security”.
11 May 2021S/2021/456 This letter transmitted the meeting record of the high-level videoconference briefing on “Maintenance of international peace and security: Upholding multilateralism and the United Nations-centred international system”, which was held on 7 May 2021.
9 January 2020S/PV.8699 This was a ministerial-level open debate on “Maintenance of international peace and security: upholding the UN Charter” where member states reflected on and reaffirmed their commitment to upholding Charter principles, particularly in the context of international peace and security. The list of speakers numbered 111 member states, which led to the open debate continuing over the following two days (Resumptions 1 and 2).
9 November 2018S/PV.8395 This was an open debate on the theme “Maintenance of international peace and security: strengthening multilateralism and the role of the United Nations”
23 February 2015S/PV.7389 This was the meeting record of the open debate on the UN Charter, marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the UN and to commemorate the end of World War II.