February 2025 Monthly Forecast

AFRICA

Libya

Expected Council Action     

In February, the Security Council will hold its bimonthly briefing on the situation in Libya. A UN representative is expected to brief the Council on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country. Additionally, the chair of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee might brief on the committee’s activities. (At the time of writing, the chair had not yet been appointed as Council members continue to negotiate this year’s allocation of subsidiary bodies).     

Key Recent Developments     

The political impasse in Libya continues between the UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU), based in Tripoli and led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Mohammed Dbeibah with advisory support from the High State Council (HSC), and the eastern-based Government of National Stability (GNS), led by Prime Minister Osama Hamad and backed by the House of Representatives (HoR) and the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) under the command of General Khalifa Haftar. The parties remain deadlocked over proposed legislation to hold national elections that would reconcile the country’s divided government. A key point of contention concerns the formation of a unified interim government to organise the elections, a move favoured by the GNS and HoR but opposed by the GNU and some segments of the HSC. The prolonged stalemate between the rival governments—which has persisted since the indefinite postponement of the 2021 elections—is one of the root causes of Libya’s political, security, and economic instability.  

In a 15 December 2024 statement, Deputy Special Representative and Political Officer in Charge of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) Stephanie Koury announced a new UNSMIL-facilitated process aimed at ending the political deadlock and facilitating the holding of elections. According to the statement, this process will comprise two stages. First, UNSMIL intends to convene a technical committee of Libyan experts to develop options to overcome “contentious issues” in the electoral laws and hold elections “in the shortest possible time including with proposed guarantees, assurances and a timeframe”. Second, the mission will facilitate a national dialogue to “expand consensus” for the resolution of long-standing drivers of conflict. The dialogue will include all segments of Libyan society, including political parties, women, youth, social leaders, and “cultural components”. In her 16 December 2024 bimonthly Council briefing, Koury reiterated the details of this initiative.  

Since then, Koury has continued consulting with Libyan stakeholders on the implementation of the proposal, including with HoR Speaker Aguila Saleh, HoR Deputy Speaker Fawzi Al Nuwairi, and GNU National Security Advisor Ibrahim Bushnaf. Additionally, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo met with acting GNU Foreign Minister Eltaher Elbaour on 21 January in New York to discuss the facilitation process. 

On 19 January, Libya’s High National Elections Commission (HNEC) announced the beginning of the second phase of the country’s municipal elections. This process will culminate in the election of local governing councils for 63 municipalities, starting with a 21-day candidate registration period and a subsequent voter registration period to be scheduled later. HNEC’s announcement followed the successful completion of the first phase of municipal elections on 16 November 2024, which conducted polls for 58 local councils. In his most recent report on UNSMIL, dated 10 December 2024 and covering developments since 9 August 2024, the Secretary-General welcomed the municipal elections as “an important basis for the implementation of a national electoral process once a political settlement on an implementable legal framework is reached”. 

Through resolution 2755 of 31 October 2024, the Council extended UNSMIL’s mandate for three months, until 31 January, with a “further automatic extension” of an additional nine months, until 31 October, if a new Special Representative and Head of UNSMIL is appointed by 31 January. (The leadership position had been vacant since then-Special Representative Abdoulaye Bathily stepped down in May 2024.) On 9 January, Council members held closed consultations at Russia’s request to receive an update from DiCarlo on the appointment process. On the day of the meeting, Council members apparently received a letter from the Secretary-General expressing his intention to appoint Hanna Serwaa Tetteh of Ghana, who most recently served as the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa. Following additional informal discussions among members, the Council agreed to Tetteh’s nomination on 24 January, after which the Secretary-General officially announced her appointment, triggering the automatic extension of UNSMIL’s mandate on 31 January. At the time of writing, it was unclear when Tetteh would officially assume her position, and the UN representative to brief at February’s Council meeting was not yet confirmed.  

On 16 January, the Council adopted resolution 2769, renewing the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee until 15 May 2026 and the authorisation of measures related to the illicit export of petroleum from Libya until 1 May 2026. The resolution also included modifications of the arms embargo and assets freeze measures imposed by resolution 1970 of 26 February 2011. (For more information, see our 16 January What’s In Blue story).  

Key Issues and Options     

Supporting political momentum towards national elections to unify Libya’s divided government remains a key issue for the Council. In this context, an important objective for the Council is to help foster common political ground between the country’s rival governments to reach an inclusive agreement on electoral laws, including the possible establishment of a unified interim government to organise the elections.  

In this regard, February’s briefing will provide Council members with an opportunity to learn about preparations for and the implementation of UNSMIL’s revitalised efforts to facilitate dialogue between Libyan political stakeholders. The potential impact of the mission’s leadership transition on this initiative is also likely to be of interest to members.  

To demonstrate the Council’s continued support for the mission’s intensified engagement under Tetteh’s leadership, members could consider issuing a presidential statement or press statement. They could also consider holding a closed Arria-formula meeting with representatives of the rival governments for a frank discussion on potential ways to break the long-standing political impasse.    

Council Dynamics     

Council members remain united on the need for a Libyan-led, inclusive political process resulting in elections that will help to restore political, security, and economic stability to the country. They also remain broadly supportive of the UN’s mediation role towards this end.       

However, the recent extension of UNSMIL’s mandate in the absence of a Special Representative rekindled older disagreements. When former Special Envoy Ján Kubiš resigned in November 2021, it took nearly a year to identify a successor, eventually leading to Bathily’s appointment in September 2022. (Resolution 2629 of 29 April 2022 changed UNSMIL’s leadership position from a Special Envoy to a Special Representative.) During this impasse, the Council renewed UNSMIL’s mandate five times between September 2021 and July 2022 through short-term extensions, in part because Russia opposed a regular one-year renewal in the absence of appointed mission leadership. During negotiations on last year’s renewal under similar circumstances, Russia again opposed a one-year extension, citing the previous short-term extensions as precedent. This resulted in the compromise solution whereby resolution 2755 renewed the mandate for a three-month period that would be automatically extended by an additional nine months upon the appointment of a new Special Representative.   

After the Secretary-General informed Council members of his intention to appoint Tetteh, Russia initially signalled scepticism about her nomination. In a letter dated 10 January, Russia expressed concerns about the nomination process—including a lack of consultation with Council members and the short notice with which the nomination was announced—and requested a list of all other candidates considered for the position in order to inform the Council’s deliberations on the matter. After further consultations with the UN Secretariat, however, it seems that Russia accepted Tetteh’s nomination.  

More broadly, geopolitical tensions influence Council dynamics with respect to Libya. Several Western members remain concerned about Russia’s growing presence in the eastern part of the country under Haftar’s control, which has reportedly accelerated as Russia has transferred military assets from Syria following the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. For its part, Russia routinely blames Libya’s current instability on the NATO-led military intervention in 2011 and accuses Western countries of seeking to exploit Libya’s oil reserves for economic gain.   

The UK is the penholder on Libya.     

Sign up for SCR emails
UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA
 
Security Council Resolutions
16 January 2025S/RES/2769 This resolution renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee until 15 May 2026 and the authorisation of measures related to the illicit export of petroleum from Libya until 1 May 2026.
31 October 2024S/RES/2755 This resolution extended UNSMIL’s mandate for three months, until 31 January 2025, with a “further automatic extension” of an additional nine months, until 31 October 2025, if a new Special Representative and Head of UNSMIL has been appointed by 31 January 2025.
Secretary-General’s Report
10 December 2024S/2024/895 This was the 120-day report on UNSMIL.
Security Council Letter
10 January 2025S/2025/25 This was a letter dated 10 January 2025 from the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation addressed to the President of the Security Council. It concerned the nomination of a new Special Representative and Head of UNSMIL.

 

Subscribe to receive SCR publications