February 2025 Monthly Forecast

AFRICA

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action

In February, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest report on the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). Special Representative for the Central African Republic (CAR) and Head of MINUSCA Valentine Rugwabiza is expected to brief.

Key Recent Developments

On 14 November 2024, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2759, extending MINUSCA’s mandate for another year until 15 November. This was the first unanimous adoption of a resolution renewing MINUSCA’s mandate in four years. (For more information, see our 13 November What’s in Blue story.)

Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix visited the CAR from 16 to 20 December 2024 following the adoption of resolution 2759. During his visit, he met with CAR authorities, including the president and the prime minister, other national and local authorities, representatives of political parties, and members of civil society. His discussions with the CAR authorities were largely focused on the implementation of MINUSCA’s mandate. He also visited Bambari, the capital of the Ouaka prefecture, to assess the situation on the ground. In his press briefing at the conclusion of his visit, he acknowledged the encouraging progress in the CAR, including the expansion of state authority, despite the many challenges that remain.

The CAR is expected to hold local and national elections this year. MINUSCA is expected to support the CAR authorities in organising these elections, in accordance with resolution 2759. With a budget shortfall posing a major challenge, local elections have been postponed several times and are now scheduled for July. Only $4.8 million out of the $14.8 million needed to organise the elections had been appropriated as at 11 October 2024, the date of the Secretary-General’s latest report on MINUSCA. The National Elections Authority reportedly conducted biometric voter registration in November and December last year despite logistical and security constraints. The CAR will be holding local elections for the first time in four decades, but opposition and civil society groups have been calling for a boycott of the elections, raising several concerns about the fairness and inclusivity of the process.

Following the 2023 constitutional referendum in the CAR, which removed the presidential term limits, the country is also expected to hold presidential and legislative elections in 2025-2026. President Faustin Touadéra is likely to seek a third term. However, concerns about the shrinking civic space continue to be an ongoing issue. In his October 2024 report, the Secretary-General called on the CAR authorities to engage in dialogue with the opposition to facilitate the holding of peaceful, inclusive and transparent elections. Apparently, Lacroix also discussed the elections with the authorities during his recent visit to the CAR.

The security situation has remained volatile, particularly in the northwest and east, because of competition over natural resources and control of major road axes. Civilians continue to bear the brunt of instability in the country, and the use of explosive ordnance remains an ongoing challenge. Various armed groups are also involved in kidnapping for ransom. According to a 15 January MINUSCA press release, the mission deployed its peacekeepers in the Basse-Kotto prefecture at the request of the CAR government following the deterioration of the security situation in the area. The country’s porous borders remain a significant security threat, facilitating the movement of armed groups and illicit arms trafficking. The Secretary-General’s October 2024 report states that the CAR government is working to enhance cooperation with neighbouring countries to tackle these challenges.

After 11 years, the Kimberley Process—a multilateral trade regime established in 2003 to prevent the flow of conflict diamonds—lifted its suspension of diamond exports from the CAR on 15 November 2024. This decision followed a visit by a Kimberley Process monitoring team to the CAR from 9 to 15 September 2024 at the request of the CAR government, which had been calling for the suspension to be lifted. During the visit, the monitoring team assessed the security situation and the mechanisms in place in accordance with the Kimberley Process. The CAR government welcomed the decision, which was announced during the Kimberley Process plenary meeting held in Dubai from 12 to 14 November 2024, but others appeared cautious in light of the ongoing competition by armed groups for control over gold and diamond mining sites.

Human Rights-Related Developments

On 7 January, the Independent Expert on the human rights situation in the CAR, Yao Agbetse, welcomed the adoption of new legislation that protects human rights defenders in the country. Adopted by the National Assembly on 27 December 2024, it provides enhanced protection measures for human rights defenders, including security mechanisms, legal support and guarantees against reprisals. The new legislation intends to strengthen civil society organisations’ contribution to the implementation and monitoring of sectoral programmes, the National Human Rights Policy, and the National Development Plan. Agbetse underscored that “this legislation is a step in the right direction towards a more just and equitable society, and it will safeguard freedom of expression, association, assembly and peaceful demonstration, and protect civic space in the country”. To that end, Agbetse pledged to work closely with the authorities to ensure the law’s implementation and “invited the state authorities, the National Commission for Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms and technical and financial partners to provide long-term support for civil society organisations and human rights defenders”.

Women, Peace and Security

In an update on the situation of women in the CAR, the NGO Working Group on Women, Peace and Security stressed that violence and insecurity persist in the country, driven by “continued impunity for serious crimes”. The update says that, while women and girls continue to be subjected to sexual and gender-based violence, there is a persistent lack of access to sexual and reproductive healthcare, psychosocial and legal support and other services. It also says that women human rights defenders and peacebuilders face an “increasingly restricted civic space”. The update notes that the situation in the CAR is impacted by other conflicts in the region, such as the war in Sudan, which has displaced over 35,000 people into the CAR, 83 percent of whom are women and children. Among other recommendations, the NGO Working Group on Women, Peace and Security called on the CAR authorities to take measures to ensure the effective promotion and protection of civic space.

Key Issues and Options

The upcoming local and national elections in the CAR will be a key issue for Council members this year. Members will likely be interested in following the state of preparation for the elections closely. An option for the Council is to have an outcome at the appropriate time reiterating its call for the CAR authorities to create the necessary conditions for the holding of free, transparent and inclusive elections by opening civic space for the participation of all sections of society, including women and youth. Council members could also seek perspectives from the field to gain a better understanding of the current situation regarding the upcoming elections in an informal setting.

The implementation of MINUSCA’s mandate pursuant to resolution 2759 is another key issue for Council members. Members may wish to have Rugwabiza provide more details on the roadmap developed by the mission to implement its mandate during the meeting in February.

Additionally, the security, humanitarian and human rights situations in the CAR are likely to continue to be of major concern for Council members. The movement of armed groups across CAR’s porous borders and the illicit trafficking of arms are related concerns. During the briefing in February, Council members may reiterate their concerns and welcome the National Assembly’s adoption of a law on the protection of human rights defenders on 27 December 2024. They may also welcome the establishment of a border post in Bémbéré, a village in the Lim-Pendé Prefecture along the border between CAR and Chad, on 17 January.

Council and Wider Dynamics

The unanimous adoption of a MINUSCA mandate renewal for the first time in four years in November signalled the Council’s support for MINUSCA’s work. The CAR’s improved bilateral relationship with the penholder, France, appears to have contributed to a more constructive mandate renewal negotiation process. It seems that the CAR has been trying to mend its relations with Western partners to ease its economic difficulties, which appears to have contributed to the resumption of bilateral and multilateral support. At the same time, it has continued its security cooperation with Russia. President Touadéra was reportedly in Moscow in January for a five-day official visit, during which he met with President Vladimir Putin to discuss bilateral cooperation, including security, and multilateral cooperation at the UN.

Although Russia voted in favour of resolution 2759, in its explanation of vote, it expressed opposition to references to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in the resolution, reiterating its position on the ICC as an “embodiment of double standards” and a “political instrument that has nothing to do with justice”. In March 2023, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Putin and Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova. Russia also opposed references in the resolution to the internal documents of the Secretariat on the environment and called on Council members not to “mix up the key provisions of the mandate…with subjects that are not directly under the remit of the Security Council”. (The document was the UN Department of Operational Support’s “Way Forward: Environment Strategy for Peace Operations 2023–2030”.)

China had proposed language in the negotiations on resolution 2759 calling on MINUSCA to adopt a transition mindset based on the recommendations of the mission’s strategic review, which was conducted last year; however, this language was not accepted in deference to the CAR, which apparently did not want the Council to consider the recommendations contained in the review. In its explanation of vote, China expressed disappointment, maintaining that “reasonable viewpoints raised by some Council members during the consultations were not taken on board”.

France is the penholder on the CAR.

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UN DOCUMENTS ON THE CAR

Security Council Resolution
27 January 2025S/RES/2759 This resolution renewed MINUSCA’s mandate for one year until 15 November 2025.
Security Council Meeting Record
27 January 2025S/PV.9783 This was the Council’s meeting on the situation in the Central African Republic.

 

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