The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question
Expected Council Action
In January, the Security Council expects to hold its quarterly open debate on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (MEPQ). Algeria intends to hold the open debate, which will be one of the signature events of its January presidency, at ministerial level. Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ahmed Attaf is expected to chair. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is the anticipated briefer.
Council members may convene additional meetings during the month and evaluate whether further Council action is required.
Key Recent Developments
Indirect talks between Israel and Hamas facilitated by Egypt, Qatar, and the US on the terms of a ceasefire agreement are ongoing, reportedly focusing on the details of the release of the hostages taken captive during the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led attacks in Israel and of Palestinian prisoners detained by Israel, as well as the positioning of Israeli forces during the potential ceasefire.
The talks are taking place against the backdrop of the continuation of the war in Gaza between Hamas and Israel. A 17 December 2024 update by the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reports that Israeli bombardment across the Gaza Strip continues to result in civilian casualties, displacement, and destruction of civilian infrastructure. The update also says that fighting has been reported between Israeli forces and Palestinian armed groups in the North Gaza governorate, where Israel has been carrying out a ground offensive since 6 October 2024. It notes that Israel has tightened its siege in some areas. The update also cites reports of rocket fire by Palestinian armed groups towards Israel.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains abysmal. Approximately 90 percent of the population of the Gaza Strip has been displaced, often multiple times. Large areas of Gaza, including critical infrastructure, have been bombed to the ground, with about 69 percent of the total structures in the Gaza Strip estimated to be destroyed, severely damaged, moderately damaged and possibly damaged. Figures provided by Palestinian officials in Gaza cited by OCHA indicate that, as of 17 December 2024, at least 45,059 Palestinians had been killed during Israel’s military campaign, while an estimated 10,000 remain under the rubble. In a recent statement, UNICEF Executive Director Catherine RusselI said that more than 160 children have reportedly been killed in Gaza since the beginning of November 2024, an average of four children every day.
According to figures provided by Israeli authorities cited by OCHA, over 1,586 Israelis and foreign nationals have been killed between 7 October 2023 and 17 December 2024, the majority on 7 October 2023. As of 17 December 2024, an estimated 100 hostages remained captive in Gaza, being denied visits from the International Committee of the Red Cross. According to the latest report on resolution 2334 (S/2024/913), issued on 13 December 2024, the hostages continue to be held “in horrific conditions with reports of severe maltreatment”.
At a recent press conference, Head of OCHA’s Sub-Office in Gaza Georgios Petropoulos addressed continuing impediments to humanitarian aid in Gaza. He said that Israel “imposes blanket prohibitions on nearly everything”, has consistently blocked humanitarian supplies, and frequently denied UN movements inside Gaza. Petropoulos described the violent and systematic looting of humanitarian cargo by armed Palestinians in the context of the breakdown of law and order in Gaza. He noted that “virtually every single practical solution” to discourage looting proposed by humanitarians to Israel—including simultaneously opening multiple access points, using alternative routes, and allowing private sector imports—has been rejected. Regarding northern Gaza, Petropoulos cited reports of the “decimation” of towns and “constant bombardment of shelters and hospitals”, with almost 150 humanitarian requests to access the area being denied by Israel since 6 October 2024.
On 21 November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, having found reasonable grounds to believe that they bear criminal responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The ICC also issued an arrest warrant for Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif, having found reasonable grounds to believe that he was responsible for crimes against humanity and war crimes. It is unclear whether Deif has been killed or is still alive.
Key humanitarian and human rights organisations have recently issued reports raising serious concerns about genocide and ethnic cleansing being committed by Israel in Gaza. In a 5 December 2024 report, Amnesty International assessed Israeli authorities’ policies and actions in Gaza after the 7 October 2023 attacks “within the framework of genocide under international law”. The organisation concluded that “Israel committed and is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza”. In a 19 December 2024 report focusing on water deprivation, Human Rights Watch (HRW) found that “Israeli authorities’ and forces’ actions to deprive the population of Gaza of access to water amount to acts of genocide”. Regarding genocidal intent, which is required under the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide for a finding of genocide, HRW said that the “pattern of conduct” described in the report, together with statements suggesting that some Israeli officials wished to destroy Palestinians in Gaza, “may indicate such intent”. In a 19 December report, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) said that the organisation’s “firsthand observations of the medical and humanitarian catastrophe” in Gaza are consistent with descriptions provided by legal experts and organisations “concluding that genocide is taking place in Gaza”. MSF added that while it does not have “the legal authority to establish intentionality”, the signs of ethnic cleansing and the ongoing devastation “are undeniable”.
Developments in the West Bank remain a source of concern. During the reporting period (12 September-6 December 2024) of the Secretary-General’s report on resolution 2334 (S/2024/913), Israel advanced or approved approximately 540 housing units. Demolitions and seizures of Palestinian-owned structures continued. According to the report, 94 Palestinians were killed by Israeli security forces during “operations, demonstrations, clashes, air strikes and other incidents”, while one Palestinian was killed by Israeli settlers. The report says that 8 Israelis were killed by Palestinians in the West Bank and Israel during the reporting period. The report also notes the intensification of displacement and settler violence against Palestinians in the context of the annual olive harvest.
On 20 November 2024, the US vetoed a draft resolution co-authored by the ten elected members of the Security Council (E10), which demanded an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire, and the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. Following the draft resolution’s failure, efforts to address the war in Gaza and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict have shifted to the General Assembly.
On 3 December 2024, the General Assembly adopted a resolution (A/RES/79/81) which established modalities for convening an international conference on the implementation of UN resolutions on the question of Palestine and the two-state solution “for the achievement of a just, lasting and comprehensive peace in the Middle East”. The conference—which is scheduled for June and will be co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia—is one of the measures mandated by the September 2024 General Assembly resolution (A/RES/ES-10/24) on the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) Advisory Opinion on the “Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), including East Jerusalem”.
On 11 December 2024, the resumed Tenth Emergency Special Session (ESS) adopted two resolutions. The first resolution (A/RES/ES-10/25) affirms support for the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). It follows the October 2024 adoption by the Knesset (Israeli Parliament) of two laws on UNRWA that, if implemented, are expected to severely impact the Agency’s capacity to function in the OPT with “devastating consequences for Palestine Refugees”, as the Secretary-General underscored in his 9 December 2024 letter on this issue. (For background on the UNRWA legislation, see the brief on the MEPQ in our November 2024 Monthly Forecast.) The resolution deplores the legislation and demands that Israel enables UNRWA’s operations to proceed without impediment or restriction. The second ESS resolution (A/RES/ES-10/26) demands a permanent ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and immediate access for the civilian population in Gaza to “basic services and humanitarian assistance indispensable to its survival”.
On 19 December 2024, the General Assembly adopted a resolution (A/RES/79/232) spearheaded by Norway asking the ICJ to render an Advisory Opinion on Israel’s obligations in relation to the presence and activities of the UN, other international organisations, and third states “in and in relation to” the OPT, including regarding the unhindered provision of supplies essential to the survival of Palestinian civilians and development assistance.
Human Rights-Related Developments
In a 12 December Decision, the Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination (CERD) called for a ceasefire and the release of the hostages and arbitrarily detained Palestinians. The CERD urged Israel to implement the provisional measures ordered by the ICJ in the case on the Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel) and called upon Israel and the State of Palestine to cooperate with the ICC. The CERD called on states party to the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination to ensure that those suspected of being responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity are “promptly brought to justice”, including by complying with the ICC arrest warrants. It further called upon all state parties to respect their international obligations to cooperate to end violations and “prevent war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, including by ceasing any military assistance if there is a clear risk that such assistance could be used in violation of international law”.
Women, Peace and Security
In its latest report, issued on 11 September 2024, the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the OPT, including East Jerusalem, and Israel, concluded that the “deliberate destruction of sexual and reproductive health-care facilities” in the Gaza Strip “constitutes reproductive violence and has had a particularly harmful effect on pregnant, post-partum and lactating women”. Among other things, the report says that direct attacks on healthcare facilities, including those offering sexual and reproductive health care and services, have affected approximately 540,000 women and girls. Many have been forced to give birth in unsafe conditions without medical support, increasing the risk of complications resulting in life-long injuries and death, a situation exacerbated by disrupted electricity and telecommunications. The Commission also documented unsafe conditions for women giving birth in hospitals, including lack of personnel, medication and equipment.
Key Issues and Options
The Council’s failure to effectively expedite an end to the war in Gaza and its inability to safeguard the viability of the two-state solution are fundamental issues undermining the Council’s credibility. That aid at scale is not reaching Palestinians in Gaza and that attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure have continued unabated are also issues of major concern.
As evidenced by the negotiations on the November 2024 E10 resolution, agreement on a text with a direct call for a ceasefire remains unlikely. Given the US’ political and military support of Israel, resolutions imposing measures such as sanctions or arms embargoes are also likely to remain out of the Council’s reach. Council members interested in promoting these measures could invite independent experts to brief the Council on the obligation to prevent and punish genocide or on the legal consequences of weapons and ammunition transfer when there is a clear risk that such weapons may be used to commit serious international law violations.
If a ceasefire agreement is achieved, Council members could request the Secretary-General to establish a UN-monitoring mechanism to verify compliance.
The US veto on the E10 draft resolution came after an extensive period of negotiations during which the E10 agreed to remove several elements from the draft in an attempt to secure a US abstention—such as language determining that the situation in Gaza and the regional escalation constitute a threat to international peace and security, and direct references to the ICJ orders of provisional measures in South Africa v. Israel. If a ceasefire remains elusive, members may want to consider putting to a vote a bolder text, backed by a broad coalition of Council members, to increase political pressure to end the war.
Members could also start consultations on the deployment of an international protective presence in the OPT, as recommended in the latest report of the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967.
An analysis by the NGO Working Group on Women, Peace and Security has noted that “Palestinian women civil society leaders have been noticeably absent from the Security Council”, with none invited to brief the Council since January 2022. Algeria could invite a Palestinian woman civil society representative to participate in the January open debate.
With reprisals against briefers persisting, including recent cases targeting civil society representatives who briefed the Council on this file, it is essential that members and the UN take all possible measures to keep briefers safe, in consultation with the briefer, including carrying out risk assessments, developing protection plans, and responding to any reprisals.
Council Dynamics
Intractable dynamics have characterised the Council’s response to the war in Gaza, which has been marked by contentious and prolonged negotiations with multiple failed adoptions. Negotiations of Council products on this file have clearly shown that it is not possible for the Council to adopt an outcome that the US, Israel’s key ally at the Security Council, does not largely support.
Regarding the E10 November 2024 draft resolution, the US maintained that it could not support a text that did not feature an explicit conditional link between the Council’s demands for a ceasefire and for the release of the hostages. In their explanation of vote following the US veto, several members expressed disappointment and a growing sense of frustration. Malta, for example, stressed that the text “represented the bare minimum of what is needed to begin to address the desperate situation on the ground”, and lamented that, due to the veto, the Council failed to uphold its responsibility to maintain international peace and security. The UK, which had abstained on the three previous draft resolutions on the war vetoed by the US, voted in favour of the E10 text, resulting in the US being the sole Council member not to support this initiative.
Overall, the US has vetoed four draft resolutions on the war. The US also vetoed a draft resolution that would have recommended that the State of Palestine be admitted to membership in the UN. China and Russia vetoed two US-proposed draft resolutions on the war, in both cases being accompanied by the negative vote of the Arab member of the Council (the UAE in 2023 and Algeria in 2024).
In December 2024, all the incoming elected members (Denmark, Greece, Pakistan, Panama, and Somalia) voted in favour of the ESS resolution on UNRWA and the General Assembly resolution adopting modalities for the international conference on peace in the Middle East. All incoming members, except Panama which abstained, voted in favour of the ESS resolution demanding a ceasefire. Greece and Panama abstained on the resolution requesting an Advisory Opinion on Israel’s obligations regarding humanitarian assistance.
The return of the Trump administration is expected to further shrink the already narrow space for compromise on this file.
| Security Council Resolutions | |
| 10 June 2024S/RES/2735 | This resolution on the war between Israel and Hamas welcomes the ceasefire proposal announced by US President Joe Biden on 31 May 2024. The resolution was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia). |
| 25 March 2024S/RES/2728 | This resolution demanded an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan leading to a lasting sustainable ceasefire. It also demanded the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. It was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (US). |
| 23 December 2016S/RES/2334 | This resolution condemned Israeli settlements and called for immediate steps to prevent violence against civilians, including acts of terror. It was adopted with 14 votes in favour and a US abstention. |
