January 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 December 2024
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Status Update since our December Forecast  

Women, Peace and Security  

On 3 December 2024, the Security Council held an open briefing on women, peace and security titled “Investing in the Transformative Power of Intergenerational Leadership on Women, Peace and Security” (S/PV.9797). The briefers were Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo and Tahani Abbas, the Executive Director of Nora Organization.  

Lebanon  

On 4 December 2024, Council members received a briefing in closed consultations on the situation in Lebanon. France, the penholder on the file, and the US requested the consultations following the announcement on 26 November 2024 of a cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel, which took effect the following day. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed.  

On 18 December 2024, France, the penholder on Lebanon, circulated a draft presidential statement welcoming the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon that entered into effect on 27 November 2024 (S/2024/870), and calling for its full implementation. This initiative was apparently aimed at encouraging momentum in the implementation of the cessation of hostilities. Among other things, the draft presidential statement recalled Israel’s and Lebanon’s commitments under the cessation of hostilities agreement, expressed deep concern over violations of the agreement, and called for all violations to stop. After a period of negotiations, the US apparently requested on 27 December 2024 an extended pause in the negotiations, citing concerns that the presidential statement could risk complicating de-escalation and compliance on the ground. It seems that all other Council members had supported the adoption of the presidential statement. 

Ukraine  

On 4 December, the Security Council held a briefing on Ukraine (S/PV.9799). The US, December’s Council president, convened the meeting to discuss the effects of the war on children in Ukraine. The meeting featured briefings from Executive Director of UNICEF Catherine Russell; Nathaniel Raymond, Executive Director of the Humanitarian Research Lab at the Yale School of Public Health; and Kateryna Rashevska, Legal Expert at the Regional Centre for Human Rights. Hedda Samson, Chargé d’Affaires a.i. of the Delegation of the European Union to the United Nations also participated in the meeting under rule 39 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

On 16 December, the Council held a briefing on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine at the request of Ecuador and France (S/PV.9816). Director of the Financing and Partnerships Division of the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Lisa Doughten briefed the Council. The representatives of Lithuania, Poland, Sweden, and Ukraine also participated in the meeting under rule 37.  

On 20 December, at Russia’s request, the Council held a briefing under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item to discuss Western arms transfers to Ukraine (S/PV.9827). High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu briefed the Council.   

Arria-formula Meeting on Persons with Disabilities in Situations of Armed Conflict  

On 6 December, Guyana and Slovenia convened an Arria-formula meeting, titled “Persons with disabilities in situations of armed conflict and related humanitarian crises – Heightening visibility and eliminating discrimination” to consider the full implementation of resolution 2475 on the protection of persons with disabilities in armed conflict. Heba Hagrass, UN Special Rapporteur on the rights of persons with disabilities; Laetitia Courtois, Permanent Observer of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to the UN; and Emina Cerimovic, the Associate Director for Disability Rights at Human Rights Watch, delivered the briefings. It was also co-sponsored by the UK and Poland (Council member in 2018 and 2019), the resolution’s co-penholders. The meeting focused attention on enhancing the visibility of persons with disabilities in the Protection of Civilians framework and the heightened vulnerabilities faced by such persons in armed conflict and related humanitarian crises.  

Counter-Terrorism 

On 6 December 2024, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2761, which extended the application of the humanitarian carve-out established by resolution 2664 to the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL and Al-Qaida sanctions regime for an indefinite period. 

Iraq 

On 6 December, the Security Council held an open briefing on the situation in Iraq (S/PV.9803), followed by consultations. Special Representative and Head of the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Mohamed Al Hassan briefed the Council on recent developments in the country and the Secretary-General’s most recent reports on UNAMI and the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-party nationals and missing Kuwaiti property. The representatives of Iraq and Kuwait participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure, in addition to Hanaa Edwar, Chairperson of the Iraqi Al-Amal Association under rule 39.  

Democratic Republic of the Congo 

On 9 December, the Security Council held an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), including the work of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) (S/PV.9804). The briefers were Bintou Keita, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of MONUSCO; and Passy Mubalama, Founder of the Action and Development Initiative for the Protection of Women and Children. The DRC, Angola and Rwanda participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

International Criminal Tribunals 

On 10 December 2024, the Council held its semi-annual debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT). The IRMCT’s president, Judge Graciela Gatti Santana, and its chief prosecutor, Serge Brammertz, briefed (S/PV.9805). They met with the Informal Working Group on International Tribunals prior to the debate. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Rwanda, and Serbia participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

Golan (UNDOF) 

Council members held consultations on the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) on 12 December. Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed. On 20 December, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2766, renewing the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) for six months, until 30 June 2025. 

Arria-formula Meeting on Mine Action 

On 12 December, Security Council members held an Arria-formula meeting on mine action at the initiative of Japan, titled “Safeguarding Lives, Sustaining Peace: Enhancing Mine Action for Stabilization, Protection, Recovery, and Inclusion”. The briefers were Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and Ambassador Keo Chhea (Cambodia). 

Afghanistan 

On 12 December 2024, the Council convened for an open briefing on Afghanistan (S/PV.9810). The briefers were: Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) Roza Otunbayeva, Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher, Ambassador Andrés Montalvo Sosa (Ecuador) in his capacity as Chair of the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee, and Chief Executive Officer and Co-Founder of the Digital Citizen Fund Roya Mahboob. The closed consultations that were scheduled to follow the open briefing were cancelled and did not take place. Afghanistan, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

On 13 December 2024, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2763, which renewed the mandate of the Monitoring Team supporting the 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee until February 2026. 

On 27 December, Council members issued a press statement on Afghanistan (SC/15957). Among other matters, the press statement expressed deep concern about the continuing negative impact of the Taliban’s policies and practices that restrict the enjoyment by women and girls of their human rights and fundamental freedoms. It also urged the Taliban to swiftly reverse these policies and practices, including the “vice and virtue” directive and the recent decision to suspend women’s and girls’ access to education in private and public medical institutions, noting that positive developments in this area are crucial for building confidence with the international community. It further underscored that dialogue, including through the Doha Process convened by the UN, is critical for a political settlement in Afghanistan as well as peace and stability in the country.  The press statement was first circulated by Japan, the penholder on Afghanistan during 2023 and 2024, approximately a week after the open briefing that took place on 12 December 2024. 

Somalia  

On 27 December, the Security Council convened a meeting (S/PV.9828) to vote on a draft resolution, authored by the UK (the penholder on Somalia), regarding the successor mission to the African Union (AU) Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Ethiopia and Somalia participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

At the meeting, the Council adopted resolution 2767, endorsing the decision of the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) to replace ATMIS with the AU Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). The resolution authorised AU members to take all necessary measures in this regard for 12 months, beginning on 1 January 2025. It also authorised AU members to deploy up to 12,626 uniformed personnel, including 1,040 police personnel, to AUSSOM until 30 June 2025, and to complete by this date the realignment of all AU troops from ATMIS to AUSSOM. The resolution was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (the US). 

UNOCA (Central Africa) 

On 13 December, the Security Council held a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) and the implementation of the UN’s regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) (S/PV.9813). Special Representative and Head of UNOCA Abdou Abarry and President of the Central African Women’s Active Network and Vice-President of the Central African Civil Society Coalition for Peace and Conflict Prevention Daniele Nlate briefed.  

Briefing by the Outgoing Chairs of the Security Council’s Subsidiary Bodies 

On 13 December, the five outgoing chairs of the Security Council Subsidiary Bodies briefed the Council on the activities of nine committees and working groups (S/PV.9814): 

  • Ambassador Yamazaki Kazuyuki (Japan) briefed the Council on his roles as chair of three subsidiary bodies: the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, the 2713 Al-Shabaab Sanctions Committee, and the Informal Working Group on Documentation and Other Procedural Questions.  
  • Ambassador Francesca Maria Gatt, the Deputy Permanent Representative of Malta, briefed on Malta’s work as chair of the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee and the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict.  
  • Ambassador Pedro Comissário Afonso (Mozambique), Chair of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Conflict Prevention and Resolution in Africa, briefed on his efforts as chair.  
  • Ambassador Andrés Efren Montalvo Sosa (Ecuador) briefed the Council as the outgoing Chair of the 1540 Committee (non-proliferation) and 1988 Afghanistan Sanctions Committee.  
  • Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl (Switzerland), Chair of the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee, briefed on the work of the Committee during her tenure as chair.  
Iran  

On 17 December, the Security Council convened a briefing on the Secretary-General’s biannual report on the implementation of resolution 2231 (20 July 2015), which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear programme (S/PV.9818).  The Council also received reports from the resolution’s facilitator, Ambassador Vanessa Frazier (Malta), and the Joint Commission, which was established to oversee the implementation of the JCPOA and comprises the current parties to the agreement: China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and Iran. Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo; Frazier; and Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis of the EU, the coordinator of the Joint Commission; delivered briefings to the Council.     

DPRK (North Korea) 

On 18 December 2024, the Security Council convened for an open briefing under the agenda item “Non-proliferation/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)” (S/PV.9820).  The meeting was requested by France, Japan, Malta, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Slovenia, the UK, and the US and was intended to “raise awareness on the security implications arising out of expanding DPRK military engagements”. The briefers were Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo and Executive Director of Conflict Armament Research Jonah Leff. The DPRK and Ukraine participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis, the Head of the Delegation of the European Union (EU) to the UN in New York, also participated in the meeting under rule 39 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

Artificial Intelligence  

On 19 December, the Security Council convened for a briefing on artificial intelligence (AI) (S/PV.9827). The briefing, which was held under the “Maintenance of international peace and security” agenda item, was one of the signature events of the US’ December Council presidency. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken chaired the meeting. The briefers were: UN Secretary-General António Guterres; Yann LeCun, Chief AI Scientist at Facebook’s AI Research (FAIR); and Fei-Fei Li, Professor of Computer Science at Stanford University and Co-Director of Stanford’s Human-Centered AI Institute. 

Sudan  

On 11 December, Ambassador Joonkook Hwang (the Republic of Korea), the chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, briefed the Council on the Committee’s work (S/PV.9807). Sudan participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

On 19 December, the Council held a ministerial-level meeting on the situation in Sudan, initiated by the US, the Council’s president for December (S/PV.9822). US Secretary of State Antony Blinken chaired the meeting. OCHA’s Director of Operations and Advocacy Division Edem Wosornu briefed the Council. Shayna Lewis, senior advisor with Preventing and Ending Mass Atrocities (PAEMA) and Saad Bahr el-Din, Sultan of the Masalit , also briefed the Council. Egypt, Sudan, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

West Africa and the Sahel 

On 20 December, the Security Council held a briefing, followed by consultations, on West Africa and the Sahel (S/PV.9825). The briefers were Special Representative and Head of the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) Leonardo Santos Simão and Levinia Addae-Mensah, Executive Director of the West Africa Network for Peacebuilding. Before the meeting, Council members that are supporters of the joint pledges related to climate, peace and security—France, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Switzerland, the Republic of Korea (ROK), the UK, and the US—held a stakeout on climate, peace and security issues in West Africa and the Sahel, delivering a statement highlighting the security challenges of climate change in the region and ways to address them. 

Children and Armed Conflict 

On 20 December 2024, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2764, highlighting the need to facilitate adequate and sustainable child protection capacities in UN peace operations, including in the context of transitions to or from UN missions. The text, which was authored by Malta (the chair of the Working Group on Children and Armed Conflict), was co-sponsored by 111 member states. 

 

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