January 2025 Monthly Forecast

AMERICAS

Haiti

Expected Council Action     

In January 2025, the Council will hold its 90-day briefing on the situation in Haiti. Special Representative and Head of the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) María Isabel Salvador will brief the Council on recent political, security, and humanitarian developments in the country and on the Secretary-General’s latest report on BINUH.  

Background and Key Recent Developments     

After the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in July 2021, Haiti descended into a multidimensional crisis characterised by political deadlock, extreme violence, and dire humanitarian conditions. Criminal gangs have overrun an estimated 85 percent of Port-au-Prince, the capital, employing brutal tactics such as kidnapping, sexual violence, and murder to subdue and subjugate the civilian population. The instability has caused widespread displacement and acute food insecurity while exacerbating a governance crisis by preventing elections, which have not taken place in the country since 2016.  

A new surge in gang violence starting in February 2024 prompted the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) to facilitate an agreement among Haitian stakeholders on a political transition to stabilise the country’s security situation and restore democratic governance. The agreement established a Transitional Presidential Council (TPC), which was formally installed in April 2024; it comprises seven voting members representing political parties and the private sector and two non-voting observers drawn from civil society and the religious community. The TPC was charged with selecting a new interim prime minister, establishing a provisional electoral council and national security council, and collaborating with the international community to accelerate the deployment of the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission that the Security Council authorised under Kenya’s leadership through resolution 2699 of 2 October 2023 to help Haitian authorities re-establish security and build conditions conducive to holding free and fair elections. According to a political agreement signed by TPC members, the transitional period will culminate in the holding of elections by February 2026.   

The TPC initially made some progress toward these objectives, including appointing former UN official Garry Conille as interim prime minister, selecting a transitional cabinet, and receiving the first MSS contingents from Kenya in June and July 2024. Other aspects of the TPC’s work have stalled, however, such as the full formation of a provisional electoral council. This has reportedly been delayed because of internal disagreements among two civil society sectors—representing human rights and women’s rights organisations, respectively—that are expected to serve on the body. Moreover, the TPC itself has been the subject of controversy, as three of its voting members have been implicated in a high-profile corruption scandal that has complicated its work and challenged its perceived legitimacy. The TPC also clashed with Conille over a variety of issues, including the handling of the corruption case, which eventually resulted in the TPC issuing a 10 November 2024 decree firing Conille and naming businessman and former Haitian Senate candidate Alix Didier Fils-Aimé as his successor. These developments have subsequently stoked internal divisions within the TPC.

Meanwhile, Haiti’s security situation has continued to deteriorate. In the last quarter of 2024, gangs staged a new series of coordinated attacks on state institutions and critical infrastructure in Port-au-Prince, including police stations, prisons, and the main international airport, which temporarily closed for the second time that year. Gangs also launched deadly attacks on residential communities in and around Port-au-Prince, including a 3 October 2024 assault on the town of Pont-Sondé in which 115 people were killed, as well as a massacre that took place over several days in early December in the neighbourhood of Cité Soleil, in which at least 180 people were killed. This brought the total number of gang killings in 2024 to over 5,000, according to UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk. In a 9 December 2024 statement, the Secretary-General condemned the Cité Soleil attack, called for a thorough investigation to ensure accountability, and urged Haitian stakeholders to accelerate the political transition.   

The insecurity has continued to have a severe negative impact on Haiti’s humanitarian situation. Between 11 and 20 November 2024, the latest surge in violence displaced over 40,000 people, according to the International Organization for Migration, which previously estimated there was a total of 703,000 internally displaced persons in the country. The World Food Programme and the Food and Agriculture Organization continued to consider the country a “famine hotspot of highest concern” in their latest outlook report covering the period from November 2024 to May 2025, with nearly half the population facing acute food insecurity. Additionally, heavy rainfall in November and December 2024 caused severe flooding that damaged thousands of houses across the country and left several people dead. The deteriorating humanitarian situation has unfolded while the resurgent gang violence forced BINUH and some humanitarian organisations to temporarily reduce their in-country footprint and operations. 

Meanwhile, the MSS mission continues to face challenges in subduing the gangs due to a lack of personnel and financial resources that limit the mission’s ability to scale up its physical presence, which currently consists of about 400 police officers out of an expected total of 2,500. On 30 September 2024, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2751, renewing the mission’s authorisation for one year under Kenya’s leadership. Implicitly acknowledging the challenges the mission has faced, the resolution encouraged the mission to accelerate its deployment and the international community to provide additional voluntary contributions. Subsequently, Ecuador and the US—the Council’s co-penholders on Haiti—introduced a separate draft resolution expressing the Council’s intention to transform the MSS mission into a UN peacekeeping operation, which would secure it more predictable funding through the UN’s regular peacekeeping budget. On 20 November, the Council held an open briefing and closed consultations at the request of China and Russia to discuss this proposal. Following additional informal consultations, the Council sent a letter dated 29 November to the Secretary-General that requested him to provide, within 60 to 90 days, strategic recommendations on the full range of options for UN support for Haiti, incorporating lessons learned from previous UN missions, political developments in Haiti, and the current MSS mission. 

On 23 December, Council members issued a press statement in which they reiterated their deep concern about the crisis in Haiti. They strongly condemned the ongoing violence in the country and expressed their concern about the “slow progress on Haiti’s road map for restoring democratic institutions”. Further, they took note of the Council’s 29 November letter to the Secretary-General requesting options for future UN support for Haiti.  

Human Rights-Related Developments  

On 26 September, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights provided an interim report on the human rights situation in Haiti. The report presents evidence of violence spreading beyond the capital to other regions of Haiti. The report concludes that the country’s multidimensional crisis requires a comprehensive plan to achieve durable peace and security. The High Commissioner called upon all national stakeholders and government authorities to strengthen the Haitian National Police and to continue making progress in the establishment of the transitional governance arrangements providing for a democratic transition, leading to free and fair legislative and presidential elections in strict compliance with international law, including international human rights law.  

On 20 November, UN High Commissioner Volker Türk expressed deep concern over the latest intensification of violence in Port-au-Prince as a coalition of gangs pushed for full control of the capital, further deepening the country’s dire humanitarian situation. Urgently calling for an immediate halt to the gang violence, Türk underscored the need for “concrete steps to bolster the Haitian police force and support the Multinational Security Support mission to protect the population and restore effective rule of law”.   

Sanctions-Related Developments 

On 11 September 2024, the 2653 Haiti Sanctions Committee met to discuss the final report of its Panel of Experts, which covers the period from November 2023 to August 2024. The report found that illegal arms trafficking into Haiti “continues unabated” and that “[s]erious violations of human rights persist on a large scale with total impunity”, including killings, torture, kidnappings, sexual violence, and the forced recruitment and exploitation of children. On 18 October 2024, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2752, renewing the sanctions regime on Haiti for one year (For more information about that resolution, see our 17 October 2024 What’s in Blue story.) 

Key Issues and Options     

The Security Council’s overarching objective in Haiti is to support the country’s political transition and assist international and domestic efforts to stem the surge in gang violence, with the ultimate aim of restoring security conditions conducive to holding elections and addressing the root causes of the country’s instability.  

One important task in this regard is ensuring the effectiveness and sustainability of the MSS mission. To this end, the Council could continue to consider options for transforming the mission into a UN peacekeeping operation. Alternatively, the Council could request the UN Secretariat to provide the mission with a logistical support package to assist it with certain administrative and back-stopping functions, which may ease the mission’s capacity constraints under its current structure. The recommendations that the Security Council requested the Secretary-General to provide on options for UN support for Haiti are likely to inform Council deliberations on this matter.    

Additionally, the Council could convene an informal interactive dialogue (IID) with Haitian transitional authorities and civil society organisations to receive more detailed information about the progress and challenges that Haiti’s political transition is facing.  

Council Dynamics     

Council members are united in their concern about Haiti’s multidimensional crisis and generally agree on the need for a Haitian-led political solution that addresses both security and socioeconomic challenges. Members are also broadly supportive of UN engagement in Haiti.  

Views vary, however, on appropriate Council responses to address the situation. The main point of contention concerns the possible transformation of the MSS mission into a UN peacekeeping operation. During negotiations on resolution 2751, Ecuador and the US apparently sought to include language expressing the Council’s intention to consider such a transformation, but China and Russia opposed this, referring to the chequered history of past UN peacekeeping operations in Haiti and arguing that the country’s political and security conditions were not conducive to a new operation. These two members remained opposed to the separate draft resolution that the co-penholders subsequently proposed on this issue, eventually resulting in the request to the Secretary-General for recommendations on UN support for the country as a compromise solution.  

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UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI
 
Security Council Resolutions
18 October 2024S/RES/2752 This resolution renewed the sanctions regime on Haiti imposed by resolution 2653 of 21 October 2022.
30 September 2024S/RES/2751 This resolution renewed for one year the authorisation for member states to deploy a Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission to Haiti to help re-establish security in the country and build conditions conducive to holding free and fair elections.
12 July 2024S/RES/2743 This resolution renewed BINUH’s mandate for one year, until 15 July 2025.
Secretary-General’s Report
15 October 2024S/2024/742 This was the Secretary-General’s 90-day report on Haiti.
Security Council Letters
29 November 2024S/2024/868 This was a letter from the President of the Security Council addressed to the Secretary-General requesting a comprehensive assessment of the current situation in Haiti along with strategic-level recommendations on the full range of options for possible UN support.
30 September 2024S/2024/704 This was a letter from the Panel of Experts established pursuant to Security Council resolution 2653 (2022) addressed to the President of the Security Council, transmitting the Panel of Experts’ final report.
Security Council Press Statement
23 December 2024SC/15954 This was a press statement in which Council members reiterated their deep concern about the crisis in Haiti, condemned the ongoing violence in the country, and expressed their concern about the “slow progress on Haiti’s road map for restoring democratic institutions”. They also took note of the Council’s 29 November letter to the Secretary-General requesting options for future UN support for Haiti.

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