January 2025 Monthly Forecast

Posted 30 December 2024
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EUROPE

Cyprus

Expected Council Action 

This month, the Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) ahead of its 31 January 2025 expiry. Earlier in the month, Security Council members are expected to receive a briefing in consultations on the situation in Cyprus by Special Representative and Head of UNFICYP Colin Stewart.  

Key Recent Developments 

Over the past six months, there has been no meaningful progress on the political front and no direct formal engagement between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders in the context of unification talks, which have been stalled since the collapse of negotiations in Crans-Montana, Switzerland, in July 2017. The two sides have maintained alternative positions on the appropriate framework for resolving the Cyprus issue: the Greek Cypriots remain firmly committed to a settlement based on a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation (BBF) with political equality, as stipulated in previous Security Council resolutions, while Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar insists on a two-state solution based on sovereign equality. 

On 5 January 2024, the Secretary-General announced the appointment of María Angela Holguín Cuéllar, a former Colombian foreign affairs minister, as his Personal Envoy on Cyprus, a good offices role with a mandate “to search for common ground on the way forward and to advise [the Secretary-General] on the Cyprus issue”. The two sides had consented to the appointment on the condition that her role be limited to “exploring whether common ground exists or not between the two sides…for the start of new, formal settlement negotiations” and that her mandate not exceed six months. Holguín’s mandate expired on 5 July.  

In a 7 July 2024 open letter, Holguín emphasised the need for fresh approaches and trust-building. She underscored the consequences of prolonged division and the deep-rooted mistrust that have fostered a status quo characterised by confrontation and discrimination. Despite these challenges, Holguín highlighted the island’s potential for unity and prosperity, urging the sides to “heal the past and improve the present”, focusing on a hopeful future, and prioritising the younger generations.  

Secretary-General António Guterres continued diplomatic engagement with the two sides. On 14 October 2024, he hosted an informal dinner in New York with Ersin Tatar and Greek Cypriot leader Nikos Christodoulides. The Secretary-General encouraged both leaders to identify ways to bridge their differences and rebuild trust, with the aim of advancing toward a settlement. According to the meeting’s readout, the leaders agreed to convene another informal meeting in a broader format under the Secretary-General’s auspices in the near future. They also agreed to meet in Cyprus to explore the possibility of opening new crossings across the ceasefire line.  

During an end-of-year reception hosted by UNFICYP on 10 December 2024 and attended by Christodoulides and Tatar, Stewart confirmed that the expanded format of the upcoming informal meeting would include the three guarantor powers: Greece, Türkiye, and the UK. Acknowledging the “unprecedented challenges” facing Cyprus, Stewart remarked that “we are witnessing some new glimmers of hope on the Cyprus issue”. He highlighted that, in the UN’s initial discussions with representatives of both leaders, there was mutual interest in reaching an agreement on the opening of new crossing points as soon as possible. Stewart stressed that such an agreement would enhance intra-island interdependence and create a more conducive environment for a settlement. According to Christodoulides, Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo is expected to visit the island in the near future to discuss preparations for the informal meeting. 

Human Rights-Related Developments 

On 30 September, the Human Rights Council adopted the report of the Working Group on the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) of Cyprus. The review, held on 30 April 2024, included statements and recommendations from 89 delegations. Cyprus received a total of 236 recommendations, of which it accepted 199 during the adoption of its UPR outcome. 

On 9 October, the General Assembly elected Cyprus as a member of the Human Rights Council for the 2025–2027 term. In its election bid, Cyprus pledged to prioritise gender equality; combat violence and discrimination against women and girls; enhance unhindered access to quality education for all, including children with disabilities and those from migrant backgrounds; and promote economic, social, and cultural rights. 

Key Issues and Options 

Since the collapse of the 2017 unification talks in Crans-Montana, the key issue for the Security Council has been the lack of meaningful progress on the political front and the diminishing prospects for a political settlement of the Cyprus problem. 

Given the current deadlock, the Council could take several actions to revive the peace process. It could encourage the parties to approach negotiations based on “engagement without recognition” to facilitate the resumption of negotiations. It could also consider taking a more proactive approach to stimulate the negotiation process by exploring a change in UNFICYP’s mandate. For example, downsizing the mission could signal a shift towards reducing dependency on external peacekeeping forces, thereby emphasising the need for the parties to take ownership of the process. Such a move could apply subtle pressure by underscoring the unsustainable nature of the status quo and encouraging the parties to work towards a long-term solution. By tying adjustments in UNFICYP’s mandate to a clear exit strategy, the Council might create a sense of urgency for the parties to reach an agreement. 

Council members may consider pursuing a presidential statement to express support for renewing the mandate of the Personal Envoy, with the aim of identifying common ground on, and fresh approaches to, the Cyprus issue. While the Secretary-General has the authority to appoint such an envoy on his own initiative, the Council’s request could provide important political backing. The Council could also consider holding a private meeting with Holguín to hear her insights on the prospects for progress on the political track, the most effective path toward a settlement, and ways in which the Council might facilitate this process. 

Council Dynamics 

Cyprus remains a low-intensity issue on the Council’s agenda. Council members with a vested interest in Cyprus include France, Russia, and the UK, which also serves as the penholder on the issue. Greece, which was elected on 6 June 2024 to serve as a non-permanent member of the Security Council from 2025 to 2026, is a key stakeholder in relation to UNFICYP and one of the three guarantor powers. 

While the Council is united in its support for UNFICYP and a political process based on a BBF with political equality, members diverge on the conditions and timeframe for the unification talks. Some members have previously supported a comprehensive strategic review of the mission and timed benchmarks for an exit strategy tied to the political process. Russia remains adamant that there be no external interference or attempts to impose solutions or timelines that might influence the peace talks. 

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UN DOCUMENTS ON CYPRUS

Security Council Resolutions
30 January 2024S/RES/2723 This extended the mandate of UNFICYP until 31 January 2025.
Secretary-General’s Reports
5 July 2024S/2024/527 This was the Secretary-General’s report on the UN operation in Cyprus.
5 July 2024S/2024/526 This was the Secretary-General’s report on his mission of good offices in Cyprus.

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