December 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 December 2024
Download Complete Forecast: PDF
  • Print
  • Share
AFRICA

UNOCA (Central Africa) 

Expected Council Action  

In December, the Security Council will hold a briefing and consultations on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report on the UN Regional Office for Central Africa (UNOCA) and the implementation of the UN’s regional strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA). Special Representative and Head of UNOCA Abdou Abarry is expected to brief. The mandate of UNOCA expires on 31 August 2027.

Key Recent Developments  

The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) held its Ordinary Summit on 18 October in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. The summit, among other things, considered reports on the political and security situation in the central African region, including the transition processes in Gabon and Chad. In this regard, the summit received reports from Faustin Archange Touadéra, President of the Central African Republic and the ECCAS Facilitator for the transition in the Gabonese Republic, and Félix Tshisekedi, President of the Democratic Republic of Congo and ECCAS Facilitator for the transition in the Republic of Chad, who was represented at the summit by his minister of regional integration.

Following the August 2023 coup in Gabon that led to the overthrow of President Ali Bongo Ondimba, who had ruled the country since 2009, ECCAS suspended the country from all its activities. It also temporarily relocated the ECCAS headquarters from Libreville to Malabo. On 31 August 2023, the AU Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) suspended Gabon from all activities and organs of the AU until constitutional order is restored.

The Gabonese transitional government has made serious efforts to show its commitment to restoring constitutional order. In November 2023, it announced plans to hold elections in August 2025 and convened a national dialogue in April in which more than 600 people participated, including opposition and civil society representatives. Several recommendations were submitted to the transitional government at the conclusion of the meeting, including a two-year transition period that could be extended for another 12 months under exceptional circumstances, and a seven-year presidential term, renewable once. At its ordinary summit, held in Equatorial Guinea on 9 March, ECCAS decided to lift the suspensions imposed on Gabon. The summit also instructed the ECCAS Commission President to undertake an advocacy mission to explain this decision to the AU and the UN.

Members of the AU Peace and Security Council visited Gabon from 12 to 14 September as part of their direct engagement with countries suspended from the AU because of unconstitutional changes of government. In accordance with the communiqué adopted following the field visit, the AUPSC members reaffirmed their solidarity with the Gabonese authorities for “their commitment towards the completion of the transition process and the return to constitutional order in line with the adopted Transition Roadmap to be completed by August 2025”. On 16 November, Gabon conducted a referendum on a new constitution, which, according to provisional results, had widespread support from the population. In an 18 November press statement, the Chairperson of the AU Commission congratulated the Gabonese transitional government and people on the referendum, which is expected to pave the way for the return of constitutional order.

Chad conducted a presidential election in May, marking the conclusion of a transition period that began following the death of President Idriss Déby Itno in April 2021. Announcing the provisional election results, Chad’s electoral commission declared Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, the late president’s son, the winner with 61 percent of the vote. Chad is set to hold legislative, provincial, and municipal elections in December, marking the first such elections since 2011. However, elements of the Chadian opposition that have contested the outcome of the presidential election are threatening to boycott these elections.

On 28 October, 40 Chadian soldiers were killed in a terrorist attack targeting a military base located in Chad’s border region with Nigeria. Media reports indicate that Boko Haram, a terrorist group operating in the Lake Chad region, was behind the attack. Chad’s President Mahamat Idriss Déby reportedly threatened to withdraw from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), which was composed of forces from Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria that are fighting against the terrorist groups Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the Lake Chad Basin. Niger’s decision to suspend its participation in the MNJTF following the July 2023 coup in that country had already raised concerns about creating a security vacuum that could result in an upsurge in terrorist attacks. Déby apparently accused the MNJTF of failing to eliminate the security threats posed by terrorist groups.

Cameroon is set to hold presidential elections in February 2025. There has been anxiety and speculation about the health of the country’s long-serving president, Paul Biya, who marked 42 years in power in November because of his recent absence from the public eye. It appears that he was in Europe, where he reportedly spends much of his time. Many of his supporters are encouraging him to run for re-election. Religious leaders have called for his resignation, however, citing concerns about his age (91) and health, and have urged him to allow a new generation to assume leadership of the country. Cameroon continues to be plagued by violence in its Anglophone northwest and southwest regions.

Key Issues and Options  

The political and security situations in several parts of Central Africa continue to be key concerns for the Council. Council members are therefore likely to be interested in hearing Abarry’s assessment of transition processes and elections in the region. The recent constitutional referendum in Gabon and the upcoming elections in Cameroon may be of particular interest to Council members. A possible option for the Council in December is to invite an ECCAS representative to provide additional insights into these situations based on the outcome of the recent ECCAS summit in Malabo.

The continued threat of terrorism in the Lake Chad basin remains a matter of serious concern. Council members recognise the important role played by MNJTF in fighting Boko Haram and ISWAP there. They will likely condemn the recent attack in Chad and underscore the need to continue supporting the MNJTF in neutralising these groups.

A related issue is how to address the root causes of the conflicts in the region. Council members continue to support the Regional Strategy for the Stabilization, Recovery and Resilience of the Boko Haram-affected areas of the Lake Chad Basin developed by the Lake Chad Basin Commission with the support of the AU and to call for expediting its implementation.

Council and Wider Dynamics  

Council members support a holistic regional approach to addressing the peace and security challenges in Central Africa, based on cooperation between UNOCA and the various regional mechanisms. Several members tend to underscore challenges in the region related to political transitions; humanitarian crises, including the rising number of refugees and internally displaced persons; the threats posed by terrorism and violent extremism; and the adverse effects of climate change.

The issue of unconstitutional changes of government remains contentious within the Security Council, with some members arguing that such changes do not always lead to instability. A more pressing concern, however, is the challenge faced by the AU and its regional mechanisms in addressing the rising tide of coups across the continent. In the case of the central African region, the Chadian transitional authorities have defied the AUPSC’s decision, barring them from standing in elections. The AUPSC appears to have refrained from reacting to the situation, which analysts warn could set a dangerous precedent for other transitional processes, including in Gabon, which is set to hold elections in August 2025, undermining the AU’s principles and norms on unconstitutional changes of government.

During the UNOCA mandate renewal in August, China and Russia apparently broke silence over the Secretary-General’s draft letter, which contained strong human rights and gender language. (UNOCA’s mandate was established and is renewed through an exchange of letters between the Secretary-General and the Security Council rather than through the adoption of a resolution). Eventually, Council members reverted to the Secretary-General’s 3 August 2021 letter that last renewed UNOCA’s mandate to achieve the necessary consensus.

Following UNOCA’s mandate renewal, Council members revived discussions on the UNOCA draft presidential statement, which they had been negotiating over the past three years but on which they were unable to agree, apparently because of differences on several issues, including references to climate change. Finally, after long and arduous negotiations, Council members agreed on the draft presidential statement in November, which expresses support for the regional office’s work. (For more, see our 1 November What’s in Blue story.)

Mozambique and the UK are the co-penholders on UNOCA.

Sign up for SCR emails
UN DOCUMENTS ON UNOCA 
Security Council Presidential Statement
1 November 2024S/PRST/2024/7 This statement expressed the Council’s full support for UNOCA.
Secretary-General’s Report
30 May 2024S/2024/420 This was the semi-annual report on UNOCA.
Security Council Meeting Record
10 June 2024S/PV.9648 This was a meeting on the situation in Central Africa.

Subscribe to receive SCR publications