December 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 December 2024
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UNDOF (Golan)

Expected Council Action

In December, the Security Council is expected to vote on a draft resolution renewing the mandate of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), which expires on 31 December. Ahead of the mandate renewal, an official from the Department of Peace Operations (DPO) is expected to brief Council members in closed consultations on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report on UNDOF, due on 2 December, and the most recent developments.

Background and Key Recent Developments

UNDOF was established following the conclusion of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement (the 1974 agreement) between Israel and Syria, which ended the Yom Kippur War. Its mandate is to maintain the ceasefire between the parties and supervise the disengagement of Israeli and Syrian forces as well as the areas of separation (a demilitarised buffer zone) and limitation (where Israeli and Syrian troops and equipment are restricted) in the Golan.

Carrying out the mandate entails monitoring violations of the 1974 agreement, reporting them, and liaising with both sides. Such violations regularly include unauthorised personnel and equipment present in the areas of separation and limitation, weapons fired, and drones and aircraft travelling across the ceasefire line.

The Secretary-General’s most recent report on UNDOF’s activities, dated 24 September, noted that the ceasefire between Israel and Syria generally held during the reporting period of 21 May to 20 August. It said, however, that violations of the 1974 agreement persisted, observing that the overall security situation in UNDOF’s area of operations remained volatile, and raised concerns about the safety and security of the military and civilian personnel of UNDOF and Observer Group Golan (OGG)—comprised of military observers from the UN Truce Supervision Organization (UNTSO).

The report added that UNDOF maintained its assessment that UN personnel in its area of operations faced a significant threat from “explosive remnants of war, including unexploded ordnance and mines, as well as a probable threat from localized violence, including the possible presence of sleeper cells of armed groups”. It further observed that although the security situation in the northern and central parts of UNDOF’s area of operations on the Bravo side (Syrian Golan) generally remained calm, the southern sector continued to be volatile, with security incidents reportedly occurring within the area of limitation, including along UNDOF patrol routes in Syria’s south-western Daraa Governorate.

During the period covered by the Secretary-General’s report, UNDOF observed the continued presence of Syrian security forces within the area of separation as well as Israel’s Iron Dome air defence systems, artillery systems, and multiple rocket launcher systems in the area of limitation on the Alpha side (Israeli-occupied Golan). The presence of this military equipment and personnel in the areas of separation and limitation constitutes a violation of the 1974 agreement.

The Golan has not been spared from the rising regional tensions, driven by the ongoing Israel-Hamas war that erupted on 7 October 2023, and the recent escalation of hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border. These developments have heightened concerns about broader instability in the region, with the Golan experiencing increased security risks and the potential for spillover violence from neighbouring conflicts. On 3 October, a drone attack targeted an Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) base in the Golan, killing two IDF soldiers and injuring 24 others. While Israeli media reports have attributed the attack to the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq, some reports have disputed this claim.

There have also been reports of instances in which missile strikes, allegedly conducted by Israel from the direction of the Golan, targeted locations around Damascus. In a 7 October letter to the president of the Security Council, Syria alleged that Israel conducted airstrikes on 1-2 October in the Mazzeh neighbourhood of Damascus, which killed six civilians and injured 12 others. On 5 November, Israeli airstrikes targeted areas south of Damascus, which it claimed belonged to Hezbollah, while Syria alleged that the strikes targeted civilian sites in the Sayeda Zeinab area and had caused some damage.

During the 23 October Council meeting on Syria, Special Envoy for Syria Geir O. Pedersen said that the IDF has been carrying out some construction activity in the Golan in the vicinity of the area of separation. As part of this activity, UNDOF observed an Israeli battle tank and excavators cross the ceasefire line into the area of separation. Media reports suggest that the construction, which began in July, includes extensive earthworks and the building of trenches and embankments, with Israeli troops and equipment encroaching into the demilitarised zone.

Key Issues and Options 

A key priority for the Council in December is the renewal of UNDOF’s mandate. A related issue is ensuring that UNDOF personnel are equipped with the necessary resources to fulfil the mission’s mandate, along with maintaining the safety and security of peacekeeping personnel.

Another key issue is the challenges the mission faces in carrying out its mandate amidst continuing violations of the 1974 agreement by the parties, such as the restrictions on the movement and access of UNDOF personnel. Since early March 2020, the IDF have restricted the movement of UNDOF and OGG personnel through the Alpha gate at the Quneitra crossing, requiring advance notice of the movement, thereby hindering the operational and administrative activities of the mission. The Secretary-General’s 24 September report noted that the access restrictions imposed by the IDF have hampered the progress on the reconstruction of UN observation post 52 on the Bravo side, in particular following the events of 7 October 2023.

A related concern is the ongoing hostilities in the region and the risk of a broader escalation. Members may consider issuing a press statement urging all parties to uphold international law and their obligations under the 1974 agreement. The statement could also express concern over the potential escalation stemming from these violations, the risks posed by localised violence, and the threat of spillover from neighbouring conflicts to the safety of peacekeepers.

Council Dynamics

The unanimous adoption of resolution 2737 of 27 June, which reauthorised UNDOF’s mandate for six months, illustrated that the Council remains united in its view that UNDOF plays an important role in regional stability. Despite deep divisions in the Council regarding the Syria file and opposing positions by the UNDOF co-penholders—Russia and the US—about who holds sovereignty over the Golan, as well as antagonism over other files such as Ukraine and Gaza, the two countries continue to consider UNDOF as a separate issue on which they agree. The difficult dynamics on other Council files were not evident during the straightforward negotiations on UNDOF’s mandate in June, and no Council member felt that an explanation of vote was necessary following the adoption. Some Council members believe that the situation has turned into a protracted conflict owing to continued violations of the 1974 agreement by both sides.

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UN Documents on UNDOF (Golan)

Security Council Resolutions
27 June 2024S/RES/2737 This resolution renewed the UNDOF mandate for six months.
Security Council Meeting Records
23 October 2024S/PV.9759 This was a meeting on the political and humanitarian situations in Syria.
Security Council Letters
7 October 2024S/2024/718 This was a letter from Syria alleging attacks by Israel from the direction of Golan on 1-2 October.

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