Ukraine
Expected Council Action
In December, the US is expected to convene a meeting on Ukraine. Additional meetings on Ukraine are possible, depending on developments on the ground.
Key Recent Developments
On 8 November, former US President Donald Trump was re-elected to the presidency, a development closely monitored by Kyiv due to its potentially significant impact on the conflict in Ukraine. As the US remains Ukraine’s largest provider of military assistance, the election marked a critical juncture in shaping US foreign policy, with the leading candidates—Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris—articulating starkly divergent approaches to the ongoing conflict.
President-elect Trump has repeatedly claimed that he could end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours”, although he has not provided specific details on how to achieve that goal. While Trump has criticised the scale of US military support to Ukraine, he has also suggested using such aid as leverage in peace talks. At an event in Florida on 14 November, Trump said that his administration will focus on the Russia-Ukraine war, emphasising the need for the war to stop.
Russian officials have expressed optimism that Trump’s re-election could provide an opportunity to reset US-Russia relations. During a 7 November meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow-based think tank and discussion forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin affirmed Moscow’s willingness to explore the possibility of improving relations with the US. Putin also reiterated Russia’s readiness for peace talks with Ukraine but argued that negotiations must be based on “current realities” on the ground.
The prospect of the US reducing or ceasing military support to Ukraine has raised concerns in many European capitals. The US remains the largest military donor to Ukraine, having committed approximately $57 billion in military assistance since February 2022. In a 16 November interview, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he expects the war to “end sooner” because of the “change in the policy of the US”. He stressed that Ukraine’s priority is to “defend a strong position” in preparation for any future negotiations.
Following the US presidential election, hostilities in Ukraine escalated as both parties sought to consolidate their positions in anticipation of potential policy shifts from Washington. On 18 November, the US reportedly lifted restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US weapons, including the long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), enabling Ukrainian forces to strike targets inside Russia. Previously, the US had resisted easing these restrictions, citing doubts over their impact on conflict dynamics in Ukraine’s favour. There were also concerns about provoking Moscow as Russian authorities have repeatedly warned that such actions could further escalate the conflict.
The US government has refused to comment on media reports regarding the lifting of restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US weapons. During a 19 November press briefing, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh suggested that Russia had escalated the conflict by deploying troops from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea to fight in the war. She underscored that US actions were focused on “ensuring that Ukraine has what it needs” to defend itself.
According to media reports, Ukraine deployed US-supplied ATACMS to strike targets in Russia’s Bryansk region on 19 November and the UK-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles in Russia’s Kursk region on 20 November. The UK government has declined to comment on reports regarding its lifting of restrictions, citing operational concerns as the reason. In a 21 November televised address, Putin warned that the use of Western weapons against targets inside Russia had introduced “elements of a global nature” to the conflict. He argued that such attacks could not occur “without the direct participation of military specialists from the countries producing these weapons”. Putin further cautioned that Russia would consider targeting military facilities of countries enabling the use of their weapons against Russian infrastructure. Putin also confirmed that, in response to these developments, Russia conducted an attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro on 21 November using what he described as “a new conventional intermediate-range missile” with a speed of approximately 3 kilometers per second, rendering it effectively impossible to intercept.
On 19 November, Putin signed an executive order revising Russia’s nuclear doctrine, effectively lowering the threshold for deploying nuclear weapons in response to a wider range of conventional threats. The updated doctrine states that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack against it or its allies, as well as to aggression against Russia and/or Belarus using conventional weapons that pose “a critical threat to their sovereignty and/or territorial integrity”. Notably, the revised doctrine also states that “aggression by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state shall be considered as a joint attack by them”. At a 19 November press briefing, Singh said that the US had no indications that Russia was preparing to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and noted that the development did not require the US to change its nuclear posture at this time.
The Security Council held two meetings on Ukraine in November. On 18 November, the Council convened for a high-level briefing to mark 1,000 days since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The meeting was a signature event of the UK’s November Council presidency. (For more information, see our 17 November What’s in Blue story.) On 27 November, the Council convened for a briefing on Ukraine. Ukraine, supported by the US, requested the meeting in a 25 November letter, which said that Russia had used a new intermediate-range ballistic missile in a 21 November attack on the city of Dnipro.
Human Rights-Related Developments
On 29 October, the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine submitted a report to the General Assembly.
The report highlighted that sexual violence as a form of torture has been widespread in detention facilities under Russian control. This included rape, attempted rape, beatings, electric shocks, burns, forced nudity, threats of sexual mutilation, and intrusive body searches. The Commission also noted that Russia’s continuous attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have caused blackouts, affecting millions of civilians. These power cuts have severely impacted the rights to health and education, particularly for children, older people, and those with disabilities or medical conditions.
The report presented evidence showing that Russian services coordinated the acts of torture in Russian detention facilities, with a clear division of labour and orders from superiors. A sense of impunity among perpetrators was also noted. The Commission concluded that Russian authorities have implemented a policy encouraging torture against civilians and prisoners of war, constituting a crime against humanity.
The Commission recommended that Russia immediately: cease aggression and all acts of violence against civilians and prisoners of war in violation of international human rights and international humanitarian law; end the use of torture and other forms of ill-treatment against civilians and prisoners of war; and take necessary measures to prevent sexual and gender-based violence.
Key Issues and Options
The overarching priority for the Council is to promote a solution to the conflict in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter and to facilitate dialogue among the parties to that end. One option is for the Council to issue a presidential statement recalling S/PRST/2022/3 of 6 May 2022, which expressed support for the Secretary-General’s efforts in search of a peaceful solution. The presidential statement could encourage the Secretary-General to appoint a personal envoy to explore openings for a peaceful settlement to the war. While the Secretary-General has the authority to appoint such an envoy on his own initiative, the Council’s request could provide important political backing. Such a draft presidential statement could be initiated by the E10, and members could consider discussing elements of such a product at permanent representative level in order to determine possible areas of agreement between Russia and the US before a draft text is produced.
The Council has held 102 formal meetings on Ukraine since the start of the war in February 2022 and approximately 98 percent have been public meetings. This has allowed members to present their positions on the conflict but not to discuss possible solutions. If there is interest in discussing current ideas for a ceasefire, members could choose to meet in a closed format, such as consultations, a private meeting, or an informal interactive dialogue.
Council and Wider Dynamics
The Security Council remains starkly divided on the conflict in Ukraine and the appropriate framework for achieving a peaceful resolution. Ukraine and several of its allies on the Security Council have advocated for a just peace, conditioned on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders. Russia, in contrast, maintains that any settlement must reflect current realities on the ground, which, in its view, would require the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the four partially occupied regions in Ukraine: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia.
Other Council members have emphasised the need for de-escalation, calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities without any preconditions. Such a move could effectively freeze the front lines, leaving Russia in control of substantial territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. Some of these members also call for inclusive dialogue that takes into account the security concerns of all parties.
During the Group of 20 (G20) Summit held on 18 and 19 November in Brazil, G20 members reached consensus on a joint declaration welcoming “all relevant and constructive initiatives that support a comprehensive, just, and durable peace”, emphasising the importance of upholding the purposes and principles of the UN Charter to promote peaceful, friendly, and good neighbourly relations among nations.
| Security Council Meeting Records | |
| 29 November 2024S/PV.9788 | This was a high-level briefing on Ukraine. This meeting was one of the signature events of the UK’s November Council presidency. |
