December 2024 Monthly Forecast

Posted 1 December 2024
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Status Update since our November Forecast  

Bosnia and Herzegovina  

On 1 November, the Council held its semi-annual debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) (S/PV.9774) and unanimously adopted resolution 2757, renewing the authorisation of the EU-led multinational stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA) until 1 November 2025.  

DPRK (North Korea) 

On 4 November, the Council convened for an open briefing on the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) (S/PV.9775). France, Japan, Malta, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Slovenia, the UK, and the US requested the meeting after the DPRK launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on 31 October. Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Mohamed Khaled Khiari briefed. The DPRK participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure. 

On 26 November, the Chair of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Pascale Baeriswyl (Switzerland), briefed Council members in closed consultations on the 90-day report regarding the Committee’s work. 

South Sudan 

On 7 November, the Security Council convened for an open briefing on the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) (S/PV.9778), followed by closed consultations. Special Representative of the Secretary-General for South Sudan and Head of UNMISS Nicholas Haysom briefed on the Secretary-General’s latest 90-day report, which was published on 25 October and covered developments from 16 July to 15 October. Merekaje Lorna, Secretary-General of South Sudan Democratic Engagement, Monitoring and Observation Programme, also briefed the Council. Kenya and South Sudan participated under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

“Threats Posed by Ransomware Attacks against Hospitals and Other Healthcare Facilities and Services”  

On 8 November, the Security Council convened for a briefing on “Threats posed by ransomware attacks against hospitals and other healthcare facilities and services” (S/PV.9779). The meeting, which was held under the “Threats to international peace and security” agenda item, was requested by the US, with support from France, Japan, Malta, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the UK. The briefers were World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and Eduardo Conrado, President of Ascension, a faith-based private healthcare organisation in the US. 

Middle East, including the Palestinian Question 

On 4 November, Security Council members held closed consultations, at Russia’s request, to discuss the implementation of resolution 2735, which welcomed a ceasefire proposal for the war in Gaza announced by the US in May 2024. Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific Khaled Khiari briefed.   

On 6 November, Council members held closed consultations on the healthcare system in Gaza and developments regarding the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus briefed.  

On 12 November, the Security Council held a briefing under the “Protection of civilians in armed conflict” agenda item to discuss the risk of famine in northern Gaza (S/PV.9781). Guyana and Switzerland, the Council’s co-focal points on conflict and hunger, joined by Algeria and Slovenia, requested the meeting after the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Famine Review Committee issued an alert on 8 November noting that there is “a strong likelihood that famine is imminent in areas within the northern Gaza Strip”. Acting Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Joyce Msuya, Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ilze Brands Kehris, and the Director of the Office of Emergencies and Resilience at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Rein Paulsen briefed. 

On 18 November, the Security Council convened for a briefing titled “Ending the war and securing durable peace” under “The situation in the Middle East” agenda item (S/PV.9787). This was one of the signature events of the UK’s November Council presidency. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process Tor Wennesland briefed.  

On 20 November, the Security Council voted on a draft resolution (S/2024/835) on the war in Gaza, which was put forward by the Council’s ten elected members (E10). The draft resolution demanded an immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire to be respected by all parties and reiterated the Council’s demand for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. The draft text failed to be adopted owing to a veto by the US. The remaining 14 members voted in favour. 

On 25 November, the Security Council held its monthly meeting on “The situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question” (S/PV.9794). Humanitarian Coordinator for the Occupied Palestinian Territory Muhannad Hadi briefed.  

Counter-Terrorism  

On 14 November, the Council convened for the annual open briefing on the work of its counter-terrorism-related committees (S/PV.9784). Ambassador Vanessa Frazier (Malta), chair of the 1267/1989/2253 Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee; Ambassador Amar Bendjama (Algeria), chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC); and Ambassador Andrés Montalvo Sosa (Ecuador), chair of the 1540 Committee briefed. 

Central African Republic 

On 14 November, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 2759, extending the mandate of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) for another year, until 15 November 2025 (S/PV.9783). This was the first unanimous adoption of a resolution extending MINUSCA’s mandate in four years. 

Sudan/South Sudan  

On 5 November, the Security Council held a briefing (S/PV.9777), followed by closed consultations, on the Secretary-General’s semi-annual report regarding the implementation of the mandate of the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) (S/2024/740). The report, covering developments from 16 April to 1 October, was circulated to Council members on 14 October. Martha Ama Akyaa Pobee, the Assistant Secretary-General for Africa in the Departments of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs and Peace Operations, briefed the Council. Sudan and South Sudan participated in the meeting under rule 37 of the Council’s provisional rules of procedure.  

On 14 November, the Security Council adopted resolution 2760, renewing UNISFA’s mandate for another year, until 15 November 2025. The resolution also extended for one year the mission’s support for the Joint Border Verification and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM). The resolution was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia), marking the first abstention on a UNISFA resolution since the mission’s establishment in 2011.  

Lebanon  

On 19 November, Council members held a briefing in consultations on the Secretary-General’s report on the implementation of resolution 1701 (S/2024/817). Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert and Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix briefed.  

Haiti  

On 20 November, the Security Council held an open briefing, followed by closed consultations, on Haiti (S/PV.9792). The meeting was requested by China and Russia to discuss a proposal by Ecuador and the US—the co-penholders on Haiti—to transform the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission authorised by resolution 2699 of 2 October 2023 into a UN peacekeeping operation. Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča and Kenyan National Security Adviser Monica Juma briefed the Council, as well as two civil society representatives: Dr. Jean William Pape, Professor of Clinical Medicine at the Center of Global Health at Weill Cornell and the Director of the Haitian medical services provider GHESKIO, and Dan Cohen, an American journalist and documentary filmmaker.  

Myanmar  

On 20 November, the Council convened for a private meeting on Myanmar (S/PV.9791). The UK, the penholder on the file and the Council’s president in November, scheduled the meeting. Special Envoy of the Secretary-General on Myanmar Julie Bishop and Special Envoy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Chair on Myanmar Alounkeo Kittikhoun briefed. 

Hitting the Ground Running  

The 22nd annual workshop for incoming members of the UN Security Council, titled “Hitting the Ground Running”, was held on 21 and 22 November on Long Island, New York. The government of Finland convened the workshop in cooperation with Security Council Report (SCR) and the Security Council Affairs Division of the UN Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs (SCAD). Hanna Serwaa Tetteh, former Foreign Minister of Ghana and former Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Horn of Africa, gave the keynote address on 21 November during a “fireside chat” with members. On 22 November, Council members held three sessions on the work of the Council: “State of the Council 2024: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead”; “Working Methods and Subsidiary Bodies”; and “Lessons Learned: Reflections of the Class of 2024”. 

Protection of Humanitarian and UN Personnel  

On 26 November, the Security Council held an open briefing on the Secretary-General’s recommendations on measures to prevent and respond to attacks against humanitarian and UN personnel, which the Council requested through resolution 2730 of 24 May (S/PV.9795). Under-Secretary-General for Safety and Security Gilles Michaud, Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Director of Financing and Partnerships Lisa Doughten, and co-founder of Humanitarian Outcomes Abby Stoddard briefed the Council.  

 

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