Ukraine
Expected Council Action
In November, the UK is expected to convene a meeting on the situation in Ukraine to mark one thousand days since Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country on 24 February 2022. Additional meetings on Ukraine are possible.
Key Recent Developments
In recent weeks, Russia has reportedly intensified assaults on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, damaging six civilian vessels and targeting grain infrastructure since 1 September. These attacks have disrupted Ukraine’s grain exports, driving wheat prices up by over 6 percent between 1 September and 14 October. The heightened risk has also led to a surge in insurance costs for Ukrainian exporters. At a 21 October Security Council briefing on Ukraine, requested by Slovenia and the US, Assistant Secretary-General for Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Miroslav Jenča emphasised that “the safety and sustainability of agricultural exports passing through the Black Sea remain critical for global food security”. He affirmed the UN’s ongoing efforts, in collaboration with Türkiye and other stakeholders, to ensure free and safe navigation in the Black Sea.
In an 18 October press release, the National Intelligence Service of the Republic of Korea (ROK) accused the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) of sending approximately 1,500 soldiers to Russia for training, with the intent of deploying them to the frontlines. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian intelligence suggests the number of DPRK troops preparing to join Russian forces is significantly higher, estimating it to be around 10,000. On 28 October, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the deployment of DPRK troops to Russia’s Kursk region, describing the development as a “significant escalation” and a “dangerous expansion” of the war. On 31 October, the Council held a briefing to discuss the alleged possible involvement of DPRK troops in the war. The meeting was requested by Ukraine, with the support of France, Japan, Malta, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Slovenia, the UK, and the US. (For more information, see our 29 October What’s in Blue story.)
Council members remain concerned over the reported transfer of weapons and related materials, including dual-use goods, to Russia from China, the DPRK, and Iran. During the Council’s 24 September briefing on Ukraine, the US accused China of supplying Russia with “machine tools, microelectronics, and other items” allegedly used to support Russia’s military efforts. On 17 October, the US imposed sanctions on several Chinese companies for “directly developing and producing complete weapons systems in partnership with Russian firms”. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning dismissed the accusations, emphasising that China “strictly controls the export of dual-use items including drones and opposes the use of civilian drones for military purposes”.
Russia, for its part, has maintained that the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine has undermined the prospects for a peaceful settlement to the war in Ukraine. At its request, the Security Council convened a briefing on 31 October to discuss this issue, marking the 19th time the Council has met on the topic since the war began. Russia also convened an Arria-formula meeting on 25 October, titled “Systematic violations of IHL committed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of the Russian Federation”. (For more, see our 24 October What’s in Blue story.)
On 27 September, Brazil and China convened a high-level meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly aimed at supporting the efforts of Global South countries in promoting a ceasefire and achieving lasting peace. Following the meeting, 13 member states, including Council members Algeria and China, signed a joint communiqué expressing their concern over the ongoing conflict and the serious risk of escalation. The communiqué underscored the importance of upholding the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, particularly the respect for state sovereignty and territorial integrity. The signatories also announced the formation of the “Group of Friends of Peace” with the aim of “fostering common understanding to support global efforts to achieve lasting peace”.
In October, Zelenskyy presented a “victory plan”, which he has described as a bridge to the holding of a second peace summit on Ukraine. The plan comprises five points—as well as three “secret annexes”—including Ukraine’s admission into NATO and authorisation to use Western-supplied long-range missiles to strike military targets within Russian territory. These are steps that Kyiv’s allies have been reluctant to support. Additionally, Ukraine has announced its intention to prepare a “joint peace framework” that will incorporate the “constructive positions of the Global South”.
Russia has dismissed Ukraine’s “victory plan”, characterising it as “a set of incoherent slogans”. During an 18 October meeting with media agencies ahead of the BRICS summit, which took place in Kazan from 22 to 24 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin voiced support for the peace initiatives put forward by Brazil and China. He described these proposals as “balanced and sensible”, suggesting they “could serve as a solid foundation for further attempts to seek peace”. Putin also noted that Moscow is carefully monitoring the activities of the “Group of Friends of Peace”.
On 23 October, during the BRICS summit, its members adopted the Kazan Declaration, underscoring that all states should adhere fully to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter “in their entirety and interrelation”. The declaration also acknowledged proposals of mediation and good offices aimed at finding a peaceful resolution of the conflict through dialogue. In response, Ukraine’s foreign ministry issued a statement asserting that the declaration’s focus on the UN Charter indicated the lack of a unified stance among BRICS members regarding the war in Ukraine.
Following the summit, Secretary-General António Guterres, who participated in the proceedings, met with Putin in Kazan on 25 October. During their discussions, Guterres reaffirmed that Russia’s “ongoing invasion of Ukraine violates the UN Charter and international law”. He further emphasised his support for establishing a formal agreement to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea.
Ukraine has criticised the bilateral meeting. In a 26 October post on X, Ukraine’s Permanent Representative to the UN Sergiy Kyslytsya argued that “there should be no meetings between UN officials and persons for whom the [International Criminal Court] has issued an arrest warrant”. (The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023 on charges of war crimes, including the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children.) Kyslytsya referenced a 2013 letter from the then-UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to the President of the Security Council, which provides guidelines on interactions with individuals under ICC arrest warrants or summonses. Guterres was scheduled to visit Kyiv following the BRICS summit, though media reports indicate that Zelenskyy declined to host him.
Human Rights-Related Developments
On 8 October, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk presented an oral update to the Human Rights Council on the findings in the report of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) regarding the situation of human rights in Ukraine. Türk described the war as quickly becoming “a tragic, flagrant example of the devastation of war on people, the environment, and a common future”. He reported that nearly all of the 174 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) interviewed by the OHCHR since March 2023 recounted experiences of torture or ill-treatment by Russian forces throughout all stages of captivity, while around half of the 205 Russian POWs interviewed described torture or ill-treatment by Ukrainian authorities, particularly during the early stages of their captivity.
In a 22 October press release, UN human rights experts urged the Russian government to confirm reports regarding the death of Ukrainian journalist and human rights defender Victoria Roshchyna, who has been forcibly disappeared since early August 2023 when reporting in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. The human rights experts called for the immediate return home of Roshchyna’s body should her death be confirmed, along with “an independent investigation into the cause and circumstances of her death”. They noted that at least 1,672 Ukrainian civilians, including 25 journalists, remain detained in Russia and urged the Russian government to disclose their fates and release those arbitrarily detained.
Key Issues and Options
The overarching priority for the Council is to promote a solution to the conflict in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter and to facilitate dialogue among the parties to that end. One option is for the Council to issue a presidential statement recalling S/PRST/2022/3 of 6 May 2022, which expressed support for the Secretary-General’s efforts in search of a peaceful solution, and encouraging the Secretary-General to appoint a personal envoy to explore openings for a peaceful settlement to the war. While the Secretary-General has the authority to appoint such an envoy on his own initiative, the Council’s request could provide important political backing.
The Council has held 96 formal meetings on Ukraine since the start of the war in February 2022 and approximately 99 percent have been public meetings. This has allowed members to present their positions on the conflict but not to discuss possible solutions. If there is interest in discussing current ideas for a ceasefire, members could choose to meet in a closed format, such as a private meeting or informal interactive dialogue.
Council Dynamics
The Security Council remains starkly divided on the conflict in Ukraine and the appropriate framework for achieving a peaceful resolution. Ukraine and several of its allies on the Security Council have advocated for a just peace, conditioned on the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders. Russia, in contrast, maintains that any settlement must reflect current realities on the ground, which, in its view, would require the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the four partially occupied regions in Ukraine: Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia.
Other Council members have emphasised the need for de-escalation, calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities without any preconditions. Such a move could effectively freeze the front lines, leaving Russia in control of substantial territory in eastern and southern Ukraine. Some of these members also call for inclusive dialogue that takes into account the security concerns of all parties.
